Urban Resilience to Climate Change Shocks and Stresses in Mbale Municipality in Uganda

Climate change shocks and stresses are expected to increasingly affect urban areas in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). However, there remain gaps in understanding local precipitation extremes and influential factors that can enhance urban resilience. This study synthesized determinants of urban resilience, investigated historic and projected precipitation extremes up to the year 2050. Also assessed were factors perceived to enhance resilience. These factors informed the proposed Municipality Resilience Index (MRI) which was tested to assess the resilience index of Mbale municipality. The study employed cross sectional survey and some elements of grounded theory and fixed qualitative research designs. A compendium of methods was used to realize the formulated objectives. To synthesize determinants of urban resilience, a review of literature was undertaken and subjected to summative thematic content analysis. To investigate precipitation extremes, historic data for 32 years was obtained from Uganda National Meteorology Authority (UNMA) while for future climate, modelled data was used. Climate data was fitted in a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to compute precipitation extremes. To assess factors perceived to be influential in enhancing household resilience, 389 structured household interviews coupled with nine group interviews were undertaken. Household data was subjected to linear regression analysis to generate relationships while normalization, principle component analysis and summations were used to generate a resilience index. Group interview data was subjected to summative thematic content analysis to derive perceptions on priority resilience factors.Findings revealed that access to basic services, social networks, employment and ownership of productive assets were the most reported determinants of resilience in cities of SSA, with climate related shocks and stresses being the most eminent. SPI results revealed more extremely wet and dry periods in 2004-2014 as compared to 1982-1992 and 1993-2003 with extremely wet periods concentrated in September to January. Household perceptions supported this finding, emphasizing that dry periods have become frequent, hotter and longer, in addition to heavy precipitation periods. Modelled data indicated a likelihood of more extremely wet periods during 2021-2030 and 2031-2040 as compared to 2041-2050. Furthermore, future predictions generally predicted more extremely dry periods during 2031-2040 and 2041-2050 as compared to 2021-2030. These threaten to pause risks to the community of Mbale. Regression results showed that the ability of a household to meet its daily expenditure, household size and networks with relatives and NGOs had significant effects on resilience capacities. Most importantly, knowledge that even the lowest income households were substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from climate induced hazards if they are able to meet their daily expenditure needs was valuable particularly in this context, as the poorest population is generally most vulnerable. Summative thematic content analysis revealed that education, healthcare, employment, peace and security were perceived as the most crucial resilience factors. Although the community perceived to have progressed in accessing credit, building productive farms and sustaining peace and security, but they assessed a lack of diverse income generating activities, access to insurance, food security, employment and quality health care. Moreover, more marginalized parts of the municipality were experiencing decreasing resilience while other divisions have increased in resilience. The most crucial resilience factors informed the proposed multidimensional MRI that constituted of 46 variables explaining the physical, social, economic and institutional dimensions. When the MRI was tested, findings revealed that Mbale municipality has a low resilience index (0.2).The study concluded that future work needs to continue utilizing a multidimensional approach to understand location-specific determinants of household resilience in municipalities given their growing role in the strong urban growth trajectory projected over the next decades. Practitioners and disaster risk reduction policies need to promote: small household size, activities that can boost household ability to meet their daily expenditure needs and social networks that shape household resilience to enhance preparedness, recovery and adaptation. Additionally, policies need to continue focusing on: access to insurance, food security, creating more employment opportunities and provision of quality health care to enhance household resilience. Furthermore, Mbale municipality local government needs to redirect more resources to parts of the municipality with the least resilience index to enhance household resilience

Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda

Purpose – As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developingcountries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda.Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capturedemographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis.Findings – The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events.Practical implications – The results imply that policymakers and practitioners have an important role vis-à-vis encouraging activities that boost the ability of households to meet their daily expenditure needs, promoting small household size and reinforcing social networks that enhance household resilience.Originality/value – Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. Thisfinding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards.Keywords Resilience, Drought, Urban, Networks, Rainfall, Demographi

Perceptions of resilience to climate-induced disasters in Mbale municipality in Uganda

Resilience has been raised as a core task within disaster risk reduction frameworks, yet it remains difficult to implement these global ideas in local communities. This study used Community Based Resilience Analysis Approach to investigate the components that are perceived as important in resilience and the extent to which these components have been achieved. It explored the trend of resilience and beneficial interventions for building resilience as perceived by interviewed participants in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda. The study results indicate that access to education, healthcare, employment, peace and security were the most important components of resilience. Respondents perceived to have progressed in accessing credit, building productive farms and sustaining peace and security by July 2017. However, they assessed a lack of diverse income-generating activities, access to insurance, food security, employment and health care. Moreover, the study showed that respondents from marginalised parts of the municipality experienced decreasing resilience while respondents in other divisions had increased resilience. These results provide context-specific components of resilience by the local people. This can inform the formulation of resilience indices and bear relevance for policy-makers and practitioners to understand areas to invest more resources to achieve resilience

Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda

Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Originality/value Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. This finding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards

Variabilities and trends of rainfall, temperature, and river flow in sipi sub-catchment on the slopes of mt. Elgon, uganda

The variabilities in rainfall and temperature in a catchment affect water availability and sustainability. This study assessed the variabilities in rainfall and temperature (1981–2015) and river flow (1998–2015) in the Sipi sub-catchment on annual and seasonal scales. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data for Buginyanya and Kapchorwa weather stations were obtained from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), while the daily river-flow data for Sipi were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE). The study used descriptive statistics, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate a high coefficient of variation (CV) (CV > 30) for August, September, October, and November (ASON) seasonal rainfall, while annual rainfall had a moderate coefficient of variation (20 ˂ CV ˂ 30). The trend analysis shows that ASON minimum and mean temperatures increased at α = 0.001 and α = 0.05 levels of significance respectively in both stations and over the entire catch-ment. Furthermore, annual and March, April, and May (MAM) river flows increased at an α = 0.05 level of significance. A total of 14 extremely wet and dry events occurred in the sub-catchment during the post-2000 period, as compared to five in the pre-2000. The significant increased trend of river flow could be attributed to the impacts of climate and land-use changes. Therefore, future studies may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment