Effects of tariffs and sanitary barriers on high- and low-value poultry trade

"A competitive partial-equilibrium spatial model with heterogeneous goods is constructed to evaluate effects of the removal of tariffs, tariff-rate quotas, and sanitary regulations on world poultry trade. The model distinguishes between "high-value" (mostly white meat) and "low-value" (mostly dark meat) poultry products and simulates the trade flows between eight exporting and importing countries and regions. Removing all barriers simultaneously has larger impact on trade than only removing tariffs and tariff-rate quotas. Imposition of sanitary barriers against US products by Russia shifts trade flows, but does not have large net impacts on US producers." from Abstract

Poverty Implications of Agricultural and Non-agricultural Price Distortions in Pakistan

Using recent estimates of industry assistance rates, the effects of trade liberalization in the rest of the world and in Pakistan alone are analyzed using a global and a Pakistan CGE model under two tax replacement schemes: a direct income tax and an indirect tax replacement. The results indicate that the distributional and poverty effects in Pakistan of a unilateral liberalization of all traded goods are significantly greater than the effects of trade liberalization in the rest of the world. There is relatively higher increase in real income and larger decline in poverty incidence in poor households both in rural and urban areas. The effects of agricultural trade liberalization alone in both the rest of the world and in Pakistan are considerably smaller than those from trade liberalization involving all goods. In both the agricultural and all-goods trade liberalization scenarios involving direct income tax replacement, real household income is raised and the poverty incidence is lowered at varied rates across all household groups except for the urban non-poor. When an indirect tax replacement is used, where the burden of replacing tariff revenue is shared by all household groups depending on their consumption structure, there is reduction in household income for most of the groups and less reduction of poverty.Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Pakistan's cotton and textile economy: Intersectoral linkages and effects on rural and urban poverty

"Pakistan's economy relies heavily on its cotton and textile sectors. The cotton-processing and textile industries make up almost half of the country's manufacturing base, while cotton is Pakistan's principal industrial crop, supplying critical income to rural households. Altogether, the cotton-textile sectors account for 11 percent of GDP and 60 percent of export receipts. The future of this vital component of the national economy is uncertain, however. These industries face the challenges of unstable world prices and increased competition resulting from global liberalization of the multilateral textile and clothing trade. At the same time, Pakistan's macroeconomic situation is volatile. Given such challenges and volatility, this study investigates what the future might hold for Pakistan's cotton and textile industries and its implications for rural and urban poverty reduction in the country. The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to a 2001–02 social accounting matrix of the Pakistan economy to conduct experimental simulations of possible economic changes. The CGE model results are linked to the nation-wide 2001–02 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to examine the implications the simulated developments have for Pakistani poverty. Simulation 1 examines the effects of a doubling of foreign capital inflows, as occurred from 2002 to 2006, before a subsequent financial crisis emerged in 2008. Simulation 2 analyzes the counterfactual effects of an increase in world prices of cotton lint and yarn and/or textiles which would have offset declines experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Pakistan's strong textile association motivates Simulation 3, which examines the effects of a 5-percent increase in government production subsidies to the industry. Simulation 4 uses a dynamic-recursive version of the model to analyze the short- and long-run effects of a 5-percent increase of total factor productivity (TFP) in cotton, lint and yarn, and textile production." from textTextile industry, Rural-urban linkages, Poverty reduction,

Linking Risk and Economic Assessments in the Analysis of Plant Pest Regulations: The Case of U.S. Imports of Mexican Avocados

Risk and Uncertainty,

EFFECTS OF TARIFFS AND TECHNICAL BARRIERS ON HIGH- AND LOW-VALUE POULTRY TRADE

A perfectly competitive spatial partial equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate some of the policy effects on world poultry trade. The model simulates the trade flows among six key exporting and importing countries and two aggregate rest-of-world regions. Effects of removal of restrictions based on tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and sanitary regulations are evaluated maintaining a distinction between "high-value" (mostly white meat) and "low-value" (mostly dark meat) poultry products. Results suggest that removal of sanitary barriers alone has relatively little effect compared to removal of tariffs and TRQs, but has more effect if sanitary and other barriers are removed simultaneously. Imposition of new sanitary barriers against US products by Russia would also shift trade flows, with production rising in Brazil.International Relations/Trade,

Effects of Tariffs and Sanitary Barriers on High- and Low-Value Poultry Trade

A competitive partial-equilibrium spatial model with heterogeneous goods is constructed to evaluate effects of the removal of tariffs, tariff-rate quotas, and sanitary regulations on world poultry trade. The model distinguishes between "highvalue" (mostly white meat) and "low-value" (mostly dark meat) poultry products and simulates the trade flows among eight exporting and importing countries and regions. Removing all barriers simultaneously has a larger impact on trade than removing only tariffs and tariff-rate quotas. Imposition of sanitary barriers against U.S. products by Russia shifts trade flows, but does not have large net impacts on U.S. producers.poultry trade, sanitary barriers, tariffs, Agricultural and Food Policy,

AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF REMOVING THE PARTIAL U.S. IMPORT BAN ON FRESH MEXICAN HASS AVOCADOS

The importation of fresh Hass avocados from Mexico into the United States has been restricted, totally or partially, since 1914 on grounds of the potential risk of pest infestation. This quarantine has been a cause of dispute between the Mexican and U.S. governments. In 1997, Hass avocados from approved orchards in the State of Michoacán, Mexico, were permitted to be imported during the months of November through February into 19 northeastern states plus the District of Columbia. In 2001, the import period was extended to October 15 through April 15, and access was granted to 12 additional states. Currently there is a proposal to remove all seasonal and geographic restrictions on the importation of fresh Hass avocados from Mexico. The purpose of this research is to assess the potential economic impacts of removing the partial import ban. A static, partial equilibrium model is constructed to analyze impacts of removing the partial import ban on Mexican avocados. Two scenarios are considered: one with population and real per-capita income held constant (short run) and one that allows growth in population and real per-capita income over five years (long run). When population and real income are held constant, removal of the partial import ban leads to an increase in avocado imports from Mexico of 102.72 million pounds (267% increase). The increased competition from Mexican avocados results in welfare losses for both Californian and Chilean avocado producers of $84.5 million and$8.5 million respectively. Conversely, consumers in the United States gain from greater availability of avocados and lower prices. The gain in equivalent variation for US consumers is $115.3 million resulting in a net welfare gain of$30.8 million for the US. For the long-run scenario, population and real per-capita income are allowed to grow at their recent historical annual averages for five years. A five-year period is chosen to match the biological lag between planting and fruit bearing for avocados and is assumed to be the time period required for avocado producers to fully adjust to any price changes. The resulting increase in the aggregate demand for avocados significantly reduces the impact on Californian and Chilean producers of removing the partial import ban on Mexican avocados. While imports from Mexico increase by 161.4 million pounds, Californian avocado production decreases by only 14.4 million pounds and exports from Chile increase by 2.5 million pounds. The loss in producer surplus for Californian producers is $9.4 million, while the net US welfare gain is$33.2 million. While it appears likely that the removal of the partial import ban on Mexican avocados will hurt Californian producers, growth in demand for avocados will mitigate a great deal of the potential losses. Regardless of the magnitude of the growth in demand, consumers in the United States will benefit from a greater availability of avocados at lower prices. The gain in consumer welfare more than offsets the loss in producer welfare.International Relations/Trade,

Cotton-Textile-Apparel sectors of Pakistan: Situations and challenges faced

"Cotton, textiles, and apparel are critical agricultural and industrial sectors in Pakistan. This study provides descriptions of these sectors and examines the key developments emerging domestically and internationally that affect the challenges and opportunities they face. One-quarter of Pakistani farmers, of whom about 40 percent have household incomes below the poverty line, grow cotton. Export controls and taxes kept cotton prices below international levels until the mid-1990s but have subsequently tracked export parity international levels following reforms to trade and pricing policies and a greater role for the private sector. Pakistani farmers have not formally adopted genetically modified Bt cotton but there is some field evidence of its unregulated use. Despite constraints in its production, storage, and ginning sectors, the production of cotton yarn increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent during 1990–2005 and Pakistan's share of world output increased to nearly 10 percent. Cotton-related products account for nearly 60 percent of Pakistan's export earnings. The textile industry still produces mostly fabrics of relatively low count (low quality) although it has been successful in expanding its exports of some higher-value products. The industry will need further entrepreneurial initiatives to remain competitive in international markets. Among the farm households that produce cotton, about 40 percent of total income comes from its production. The decline in world prices that occurred in the late 1990s adversely affected these households. Household-level simulations suggest that a counterfactual 20 percent increase of cotton prices, which reflects the extent to which real cotton prices declined in Pakistan during this period, would have reduced the percentage of cotton-producing households below the poverty line in 2001 from 40 percent to 28 percent. The estimated effect from declining cotton prices explains about one-sixth of the overall observed increase of rural poverty in the period." from authors' abstractCotton, textiles, Apparel, Rural poverty, subsidies, Industry policy, World markets, Globalization, Markets, trade,

Neutrino-Oxygen CC0π\pi scattering in the SuSAv2-MEC model

We present the predictions of the SuSAv2-MEC model for the double differential charged-current muonic neutrino (antineutrino) cross section on water for the T2K neutrino (antineutrino) beam. We validate our model by comparing with the available inclusive electron scattering data on oxygen and compare our predictions with the recent T2K $\nu_\mu$-$^{16}$O data, finding good agreement at all kinematics. We show that the results are very similar to those obtained for $\nu_\mu-^{12}$C scattering, except at low energies, and we comment on the origin of this difference. A factorized spectral function model of $^{16}$O is also included for purposes of comparison.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, JLAB-THY-17-2586. Version 2 accepted for publication in Journal of Physics G: Nucl. Part. Phy

Modeling quark-hadron duality in polarization observables

We apply a model for the study of quark-hadron duality in inclusive electron scattering to the calculation of spin observables. The model is based on solving the Dirac equation numerically for a scalar confining linear potential and a vector color Coulomb potential. We qualitatively reproduce the features of quark-hadron duality for all potentials considered, and discuss the onset of scaling and duality for the responses, spin structure functions, and polarization asymmetries. Duality may be applied to gain access to kinematic regions which are hard to access in deep inelastic scattering, namely for $x_{Bj} \to 1$, and we discuss which observables are most suitable for this application of duality