Predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Court Pre-Screen Assessment in the Netherlands: the development of a new scoring system

This study examined the predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Pre-Screen Assessment (WSJCA pre-screen) in the Netherlands. Previous research conducted in the United States showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen to be modest, as is the case with the predictive validity of most other risk assessment instruments for juveniles. Therefore, it was also examined whether the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen can be improved by modifying the scoring procedure. The sample consisted of 520 youths who had been referred to the juvenile probation service by court. The present study showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen in the Netherlands to be modest too, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of .625. Modifying the scoring procedure by means of chi-squared automatic interaction detector analyses significantly improved the predictive validity to an AUC of .702. The modified scoring procedure is time-saving because only variables that uniquely contribute to the prediction of recidivism are included, which at the same time leads to a more accurate prediction of recidivism

Differences between juvenile offenders with and without intellectual disabilities in the importance of static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism

Background Juvenile offenders with intellectual disability (ID) have been largely ignored in the literature of risk assessment, while they are overrepresented in the criminal justice system, and ID is a risk factor for juvenile delinquency and recidivism. The aim of this study was to examine whether there are differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors for recidivism. Both the impact of static and dynamic risk factors were examined. Static risk factors were examined in the criminal history domain and dynamic risk factors were examined in the domains of family, school, use of free time, friends, alcohol/drugs, attitude, aggression and skills. This knowledge is important for both assessment and treatment of juvenile offenders with ID. Method The sample consisted of adolescents who appeared before the courts for a criminal act and for whom the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment (WSJCA) was completed. The group of ID juvenile offenders (n = 102) consisted of juvenile offenders with a formal diagnosis of ID, which means a full scale IQ of less than 70, coupled with significant deficits in adaptive behaviour, with childhood onset. The juveniles of this group are special education students or they have a formal diagnosis of a special education need. The group without ID (n = 526), was a random sample of all juvenile offenders without a formal diagnosis of ID. Results No differences were found between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors on recidivism in most domains. However, in the skills domain, the relations between all risk factors and recidivism were significantly stronger in adolescents without ID than in adolescents with ID. Although not or only borderline statistically significant, these risk factors were all negatively related to recidivism in adolescents with ID, whereas these risk factors were significantly and positively related to recidivism in adolescents without ID. Conclusions There are few differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors for recidivism, suggesting that the same assessment methods can be used for juvenile offenders with and without ID. There were, however, differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the skills domain. What these differences mean for the treatment of juvenile offenders is yet to be determined. For now it is important to be aware of potential negative (side) effects on recidivism when skills training is offered to juvenile offenders with ID