Water drainage from a Swedish waste treatment facility and the expected effect of climate change

The waste treatment facility, Sobacken, is located south of Borås, Sweden. At Sobacken there is a lake built to collect the leachate from the area. Leachate is a term for water that has the potential of carrying environmentally hazardous substances, in this case water that might have passed through waste. This thesis focused on the development of a hydrological model that from common climate variables is able to model the water level of the leachate lake. The model was based on the theory that all incoming precipitation for the catchment will either end up in the leachate lake or are removed by either evapotranspiration or groundwater recharge. The water will then either be pumped out of the leachate lake or be removed as open water evaporation. Since the area of the catchment was unknown this was estimated with a GIS analysis made with elevation data. The land area of the catchment was around 350 000 m2. The model was used to investigate how the water level of the leachate lake will be affected by a proposed climate change scenario. The climate scenarios used for this thesis were A1B, A2, and B1. The model gave reasonable results compared to other studies and showed for all three of the climate scenarios an increasing trend of the average leachate lake water level. This indicates that the lake will not be sufficiently large to handle the increment of leachate in the future. This in turn would lead to an overflow of leachate into the environment which has to be prevented

Can the forecast of the cotton price be improved using a model based upon economic variables?

The purpose of this thesis is to find a model, which is based on economic variables that can forecast the cotton price better than commonly used benchmark models. A vector error correction model is used because of the existence of non-stationary variables and one cointegration relation in the data. Two types of forecasting methods are used for out-of sample predictions. The dynamic forecasting in this thesis is used to predict the cotton price six days ahead and the static forecast only predicts one day ahead. Three different types of estimation windows are used to see which gives the best forecasting results. The residuals are then used to calculate the root mean squared error, RMSE, enabling the comparison with random walks and autoregressive processes. The static forecasts did result in significant better forecasts than the benchmark models while the dynamic forecasts did not produce significantly better nor worse results than the benchmark models. Including economic variables when predicting the cotton price only significantly improves static forecasts of one-day ahead predictions. A sign prediction test was conducted in order to test the static method for one-day speculative purposes, and significant results were found

Prevalence of paediatric inflammatory bowel disease in Sweden: a nationwide population-based register study

Summary of ICD codes used for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease. (PDF 36 kb

Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for adolescents with irritable bowel syndrome : a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: Few treatments have been able to effectively manage pediatric irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy (Internet-CBT) based on exposure for abdominal symptoms is effective for adult IBS. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of Internet-CBT based on behavioral exposure for adolescents with IBS. METHODS: Adolescents with IBS fulfilling the Rome III criteria were randomized to either Internet-CBT or a wait-list control. The Internet-CBT was a 10-week intervention where the main component was exposure to IBS symptoms by reduction of avoidance of abdominal symptoms and instead stepwise provocation of symptoms. The primary outcome was total score on Gastrointestinal Symptoms Rating Scale for IBS (GSRS-IBS). Secondary outcomes included adolescent- and parent-rated quality of life and parent-rated gastrointestinal symptoms. Difference between groups was assessed from pretreatment to posttreatment and the Internet-CBT group was also evaluated at 6 months after treatment completion. RESULTS: A total of 101 adolescents with IBS (13-17 years of age) were included in this study. Dropout rates were low (6%) and all randomized patients were included in intent-to-treat analyses based on mixed effects models. Analyses showed a significant larger pretreatment to posttreatment change on the primary outcome GSRS-IBS (B=-6.42, P=0.006, effect size Cohen's d=0.45, 95% confidence interval (0.12, 0.77)) and on almost all secondary outcomes for the Internet-CBT group compared with the control group. After 6 months, the results were stable or significantly improved. CONCLUSIONS: Internet-CBT based on exposure exercises for adolescents with IBS can effectively improve gastrointestinal symptoms and quality of life.Jane and Dan Olsson foundation, 4-1559/2013Kempe-Carlgrenska foundationRuth and Richard Julin foundation, 2012Juli0048Ishizu Matsumurais DonationMajblomman foundationBengt Ihre research fellowshipBengt Ihre foundation, SLS-331861The Samariten foundationThe Swedish society of medicine, SLS-331681, SLS-410501VärkstadststiftelsenGadelius foundationSwedish Research Council, 521-2013-2846Regional agreement on medical training and clinical research between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, 20130129Accepte

Prevalence and Implications of Frailty in Older Adults With Incident Inflammatory Bowel Diseases : A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to compare the risk of frailty in older adults with incident inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and matched non-IBD comparators and assess the association between frailty and future hospitalizations and mortality. METHODS: In a cohort of patients with incident IBD ≥60 years of age from 2007 to 2016 in Sweden identified using nationwide registers, we defined frailty using Hospital Frailty Risk Score. We compared prevalence of frailty in patients with IBD with age, sex, place of residency- and calendar year-matched population comparators. In the IBD cohort, we used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the associations between frailty risk and hospitalizations or mortality. RESULTS: We identified 10,590 patients with IBD, 52% female with a mean age of 71 years of age, matched to 103,398 population-based comparators. Among patients with IBD, 39% had no risk for frailty, 49% had low risk for frailty, and 12% had higher risk for frailty. Mean Hospital Frailty Risk Score was 1.9 in IBD and 0.9 in matched comparators (P < .01). Older adults with IBD at higher risk for frailty had a 20% greater risk for mortality at 3 years compared with those who were not frail. Compared with nonfrail older patients with IBD, patients at higher risk for frailty had increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 3.22, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.86-3.61), all-cause hospitalization (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 2.24-2.61), and IBD-related hospitalization (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.66). These associations were not attenuated after adjusting for comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is more prevalent in older adults with IBD than in matched comparators. Among older patients with IBD, frailty is associated with increased risk for hospitalizations and mortality.Peer reviewe

Validating surgical procedure codes for inflammatory bowel disease in the Swedish National Patient Register

Background About 50% of patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) and about 20% of those with ulcerative colitis (UC) undergo surgery at some point during the course of the disease. The diagnostic validity of the Swedish National Patient Register (NPR) has previously been shown to be high for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but there are little data on the validity of IBD-related surgical procedure codes. Methods Using patient chart data as the gold standard, surgical procedure codes registered between 1966 and 2014 in the NPR were abstracted and validated in 262 randomly selected patients with a medical diagnosis of IBD. Of these, 53 patients had reliable data about IBD-related surgery. The positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity and specificity of the surgical procedure codes were calculated. Results In total, 158 surgical procedure codes were registered in the NPR. One hundred fifty-five of these, representing 60 different procedure codes, were also present in the patient charts and validated using a standardized form. Of the validated codes 153/155 were concordant with the patient charts, corresponding to a PPV of 96.8% (95%CI = 93.9–99.1). Stratified in abdominal, perianal and other surgery, the corresponding PPVs were 94.1% (95%CI = 88.7–98.6), 100% (95%CI = 100–100) and 98.1% (95%CI = 93.1–100), respectively. Of 164 surgical procedure codes in the validated patient charts, 155 were registered in the NPR, corresponding to a sensitivity of the surgical procedure codes of 94.5% (95%CI = 89.6–99.3). The specificity of the NPR was 98.5% (95%CI = 97.6–100). Conclusions Data on IBD-related surgical procedure codes are reliable, with the Swedish National Patient Register showing a high sensitivity and specificity for such surgery

Allergy-related diseases in childhood and risk for abdominal pain-related functional gastrointestinal disorders at 16 years—a birth cohort study

Background Studies on allergy-related diseases in relation to abdominal pain-related functional gastrointestinal disorders (AP-FGIDs) in children are few and results are contradictory. We examined the associations between childhood allergy-related diseases and adolescent AP-FGIDs in general and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in particular. Method Prospective population-based birth cohort study of 4089 children born in Sweden 1994-1996. We analysed data from 2949 children with complete follow-up at 16 years (y) and no diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease or coeliac disease at 12y or 16y. Asthma, rhinitis, eczema, and food hypersensitivity (FH) were assessed through questionnaires at 1–2y, 4y, 8y, 12y, and 16y. AP-FGIDs and IBS were assessed through questionnaires at 16y and defined according to the Rome III criteria. Associations between childhood allergy-related diseases and any AP-FGID and IBS and 16y respectively were examined using binomial generalized linear models with a log link function and described as relative risk with 95% confidence intervals. Results The prevalence of any AP-FGID and IBS at 16y were 12.0% and 6.0% respectively. Eczema at 1–2y, 4y, and 8y, and FH at 12y and 16y were associated with an increased risk for any AP-FGID at 16y. Asthma and FH at 12y and 16y were associated with an increased risk for IBS at 16y. The relative risk for IBS at 16y increased with increasing number of concurrent allergy-related diseases at 16y, but linear trend for relative risk was only borderline statistically significant (P for trend = 0.05). Conclusions This prospective population-based study demonstrated positive associations between childhood allergy-related diseases and adolescent AP-FGIDs, including IBS, implicating shared pathophysiology among these disorders

The incidence of cancer and mortality in paediatric onset inflammatory bowel disease in Denmark and Finland during a 23-year period : a population-based study

Background Recent studies report increased risks of both cancer and mortality in paediatric onset inflammatory bowel disease (pIBD) but the reproducibility of this is unknown. Aim To estimate the risk of cancer and mortality in the Danish and Finnish pIBD population in a 23-year period compared to the general population. Methods The pIBD population was defined as individuals registered in the national patient registries with a diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC) or IBD-unclassified before their 18th birthday from 1992 to 2014. This cohort was cross referenced with the national cancer and mortality registries identifying all pIBD patients who subsequently developed cancer and/ or died and followed up to the end of 2014. Risk estimates are presented as standardised incidence ratios calculated based on incidence figures from the populations. Results Six thousand six hundred and eight-nine patients with pIBD were identified (median age at follow-up 22.3 years; median follow-up: 9.6 years [interquartile range: 4.8-16.0]). Seventy-two subsequently developed cancer and 65 died. The standardised incidence ratio of cancer in general was 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-3.7) and 2.5 (95% CI: 1.8-3.4) in CD and UC, respectively. The standardised mortality ratios were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.4) and 3.7 (95% CI: 2.7-5.0) in CD and UC, respectively. The leading causes for mortality were cancer, suicide and infections. Conclusions We found an increased risk of cancer and mortality in pIBD. This underlines the importance of cancer surveillance programs and assessment of mental health in the standard of care in adolescent pIBD patients.Peer reviewe