Discriminant Analysis to Predict the Occurrence of ELMS in H-Mode Discharges

"After an exposition of its theoretical background, discriminant analysis is applied to the H-mode confinement database to find the region in plasma parameter space in which H-mode with small ELMs (Edge Localized Modes) is likely to occur. The boundary of this region is determined by the condition that the probability of appearance of such a type of H-mode, as a function of the plasma parameters, should be (1) larger than some threshold value and (2) larger than the corresponding probability for other types of H-mode (i.e., H-mode without ELMs or with giant ELMs). In practice, the discrimination has been performed for the ASDEX, JET and JFT-2M tokamaks (a) using four instantaneous plasma parameters (injected power P_inj , magnetic field B_t, plasma current I_p and line averaged electron density bar{n}_e) and (b) taking also memory effects of the plasma and the distance between the plasma and the wall into account, while using variables that are normalised with respect to machine size. Generally speaking, it is found that there is a substantial overlap between the region of H-mode with small ELMs and the region of the two other types of H-mode. However, the ELM-free and the giant ELM H-modes relatively rarely appear in the region, that, according to the analysis, is allocated to small ELMs. A reliable production of H-mode with only small ELMs seems well possible by choosing this regime in parameter space. In the present study, it was not attempted to arrive at a unified discrimination across the machines. So, projection from one machine to another remains difficult, and a reliable determination of the region where small ELMs occur still requires a training sample from the device under consideration.

Discriminant Analysis of Plasma Fusion Data

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Basic probability theory and statistics for experimental plasma physics

SIGLEAvailable from FIZ Karlsruhe / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Reflections on fourteen cryptic issues concerning the nature of statistical inference

The present paper provides the original formulation and a joint response of a group of statistically trained scientists to fourteen cryptic issues for discussion, which were handed out to the public by Professor Dr. D.R. Cox after his Bernoulli Lecture 1997 at Groningen University

Extrapolation of ASDEX Upgrade H-mode discharges to ITER

In this paper we discuss a procedure to evaluate the fusion performance of ASDEX Upgrade discharges scaled up to ITER. The kinetic profile shape is taken from the measured profiles. Multiplication factors are used to obtain a fixed Greenwald fraction and an ITER normalized thermal pressure as in the corresponding ASDEX Upgrade discharge. The toroidal field and the plasma geometry are taken from the ITER-FEAT design (scenario 2), whereas q(95) is taken from the experiment. The confinement time is inferred assuming that the measured H-factor with respect to several existing scaling laws also holds for ITER. While retaining the information contained in the multi-machine databases underlying the different scaling laws, this approach adds profile effects and confinement improvement with respect to the ITER baseline, thus including recent experimental evidence such as the prediction of peaked density profiles in ITER. Under this set of assumptions, of course not unique, we estimate the ITER performance on the basis of a wide database of ASDEX Upgrade H-mode discharges, in terms of fusion power, fusion gain and triple product. According to the three scalings considered, there is a finite probability of reaching ignition, while more than half of the discharges require less auxiliary power than the one foreseen for ITER. For all the scaling laws, high values of the thermal beta(N) up to 2.4 are accessible. A sensitivity study gives an estimate of the accuracy of the extrapolation. The impact of different levels of tungsten concentration on the fusion performance is also studied in this paper. This scaling method is used to verify some common 0D figures of merit of ITER's fusion performance

A statistical approach to plasma profile analysis

SIGLECopy held by FIZ Karlsruhe; available from UB/TIB Hannover / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman