Divergence-time estimates for hominins provide insight into encephalization and body mass trends in human evolution

Quantifying speciation times during human evolution is fundamental as it provides a timescale to test for the correlation between key evolutionary transitions and extrinsic factors such as climatic or environmental change. Here, we applied a total evidence dating approach to a hominin phylogeny to estimate divergence times under different topological hypotheses. The time-scaled phylogenies were subsequently used to perform ancestral state reconstructions of body mass and phylogenetic encephalization quotient (PEQ). Our divergence-time estimates are consistent with other recent studies that analysed extant species. We show that the origin of the genus Homo probably occurred between 4.30 and 2.56 million years ago. The ancestral state reconstructions show a general trend towards a smaller body mass before the emergence of Homo, followed by a trend towards a greater body mass. PEQ estimations display a general trend of gradual but accelerating encephalization evolution. The obtained results provide a rigorous temporal framework for human evolution

FossilSim:An r package for simulating fossil occurrence data under mechanistic models of preservation and recovery

1.Key features of the fossil record that present challenges for integrating palaeontological and phylogenetic datasets include (i) non‐uniform fossil recovery, (ii) stratigraphic age uncertainty and (iii) inconsistencies in the definition of species origination and taxonomy. 2.We present an r package FossilSim that can be used to simulate and visualise fossil data for phylogenetic analysis under a range of flexible models. The package includes interval‐, environment‐ and lineage‐dependent models of fossil recovery that can be combined with models of stratigraphic age uncertainty and species evolution. 3.The package input and output can be used in combination with the wide range of existing phylogenetic and palaeontological r packages. We also provide functions for converting between FossilSim and paleotree objects. 4. Simulated datasets provide enormous potential to assess the performance of phylogenetic methods and to explore the impact of using fossil occurrence databases on parameter estimation in macroevolution.ISSN:2041-210XISSN:2041-209

Rising Rates And Widening Socio-economic Disparities In Diabetic Ketoacidosis In Type 1 Diabetes In Scotland:A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Observational Study

OBJECTIVE: Whether advances in the management of type 1 diabetes are reducing rates of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is unclear. We investigated time trends in DKA rates in a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes monitored for 14 years, overall and by socioeconomic characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All individuals in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were alive and at least 1 year old between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 were identified using the national register (N 5 37,939). DKA deaths and hospital admissions were obtained through linkage to Scottish national death and morbidity records. Bayesian regression was used to test for DKA time trends and association with risk markers, including socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: There were 30,427 DKA admissions and 472 DKA deaths observed over 393,223 person-years at risk. DKA event rates increased over the study period (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per year 1.058 [95% credibility interval 1.054–1.061]). Males had lower rates than females (IRR male-to-female 0.814 [0.776–0.855]). DKA incidence rose in all age-groups other than 10- to 19-year-olds, in whom rates were the highest, but fell over the study. There was a large socioeconomic differential (IRR least-to-most deprived quintile 0.446 [0.406–0.490]), which increased during follow-up. Insulin pump use or completion of structured education were associated with lower DKA rates, and antidepressant and methadone prescription were associated with higher DKA rates. CONCLUSIONS: DKA incidence has risen since 2004, except in 10- to 19-year-olds. Of particular concern are the strong and widening socioeconomic disparities in DKA outcomes. Efforts to prevent DKA, especially in vulnerable groups, require strengthening

A Cross-Sectional Survey on Knowledge and Perceptions of Health Risks Associated with Arsenic and Mercury Contamination from Artisanal Gold mining in Tanzania.

An estimated 0.5 to 1.5 million informal miners, of whom 30-50% are women, rely on artisanal mining for their livelihood in Tanzania. Mercury, used in the processing gold ore, and arsenic, which is a constituent of some ores, are common occupational exposures that frequently result in widespread environmental contamination. Frequently, the mining activities are conducted haphazardly without regard for environmental, occupational, or community exposure. The primary objective of this study was to assess community risk knowledge and perception of potential mercury and arsenic toxicity and/or exposure from artisanal gold mining in Rwamagasa in northwestern Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey of respondents in five sub-villages in the Rwamagasa Village located in Geita District in northwestern Tanzania near Lake Victoria was conducted. This area has a history of artisanal gold mining and many of the population continue to work as miners. Using a clustered random selection approach for recruitment, a total of 160 individuals over 18 years of age completed a structured interview. The interviews revealed wide variations in knowledge and risk perceptions concerning mercury and arsenic exposure, with 40.6% (n=65) and 89.4% (n=143) not aware of the health effects of mercury and arsenic exposure respectively. Males were significantly more knowledgeable (n=59, 36.9%) than females (n=36, 22.5%) with regard to mercury (x²=3.99, p<0.05). An individual's occupation category was associated with level of knowledge (x²=22.82, p=<0.001). Individuals involved in mining (n=63, 73.2%) were more knowledgeable about the negative health effects of mercury than individuals in other occupations. Of the few individuals (n=17, 10.6%) who knew about arsenic toxicity, the majority (n=10, 58.8%) were miners. The knowledge of individuals living in Rwamagasa, Tanzania, an area with a history of artisanal gold mining, varied widely with regard to the health hazards of mercury and arsenic. In these communities there was limited awareness of the threats to health associated with exposure to mercury and arsenic. This lack of knowledge, combined with minimal environmental monitoring and controlled waste management practices, highlights the need for health education, surveillance, and policy changes

Parsimony and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses of morphology do not generally integrate uncertainty in inferring evolutionary history:A response to Brown et al.

Our recent study evaluated the performance of parsimony and probabilistic models of phylogenetic inference based on categorical data [1]. We found that a Bayesian implementation of a probabilistic Markov model produced more accurate results than either of the competing parsimony approaches (the main method currently employed), and the maximum-likelihood implementation of the same model. This occurs principally because the results of Bayesian analyses are less resolved (less precise) as a measure of topological uncertainty is intrinsically recovered in this MCMC-based approach and can be used to construct a majority-rule consensus tree that reflects this. Of the three main methods, maximum likelihood performed theworst of all as a single exclusively bifurcating tree is estimated in this framework which does not integrate an intrinsic measure of support.N

The Interaction between Early Life Epilepsy and Autistic-Like Behavioral Consequences: A Role for the Mammalian Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) Pathway

Early life seizures can result in chronic epilepsy, cognitive deficits and behavioral changes such as autism, and conversely epilepsy is common in autistic children. We hypothesized that during early brain development, seizures could alter regulators of synaptic development and underlie the interaction between epilepsy and autism. The mammalian Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) modulates protein translation and is dysregulated in Tuberous Sclerosis Complex, a disorder characterized by epilepsy and autism. We used a rodent model of acute hypoxia-induced neonatal seizures that results in long term increases in neuronal excitability, seizure susceptibility, and spontaneous seizures, to determine how seizures alter mTOR Complex 1 (mTORC1) signaling. We hypothesized that seizures occurring at a developmental stage coinciding with a critical period of synaptogenesis will activate mTORC1, contributing to epileptic networks and autistic-like behavior in later life. Here we show that in the rat, baseline mTORC1 activation peaks during the first three postnatal weeks, and induction of seizures at postnatal day 10 results in further transient activation of its downstream targets phospho-4E-BP1 (Thr37/46), phospho-p70S6K (Thr389) and phospho-S6 (Ser235/236), as well as rapid induction of activity-dependent upstream signaling molecules, including BDNF, phospho-Akt (Thr308) and phospho-ERK (Thr202/Tyr204). Furthermore, treatment with the mTORC1 inhibitor rapamycin immediately before and after seizures reversed early increases in glutamatergic neurotransmission and seizure susceptibility and attenuated later life epilepsy and autistic-like behavior. Together, these findings suggest that in the developing brain the mTORC1 signaling pathway is involved in epileptogenesis and altered social behavior, and that it may be a target for development of novel therapies that eliminate the progressive effects of neonatal seizures

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe