Measuring Volatility in Dairy Commodity Prices

The policy environment facing the EU dairy industry continues to undergo considerable change under WTO and CAP reform. Movement away from supply management by the EU and a more liberal global agricultural trading system will involve greater price volatility for dairy commodities. It is anticipated that EU dairy prices will more closely align with world prices. World prices are both lower and more volatile than EU prices and it is further assumed that this increased volatility will be transmitted to EU prices. Price volatility is a concern for a number of reasons as it adds challenges for business planning, debt repayment, and, in some cases, solvency. Representative EU and world butter and SMP (Skim Milk Powder) prices are considered and using the ARMA and GARCH framework their volatility is quantified.Price Volatility, ARMA, GARCH, Butter, SMP, Dairy Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Managing Price Risk in a Changing Policy Environment: The Case of the EU Dairy Industry

The EU dairy industry faces an unprecedented level of change. The anticipated removal of milk quotas and the move to a less restricted global trade environment will provide the industry with both opportunities and challenges. The primary challenge will be the need for the industry to deal with more volatile prices. Active management of the risks associated with these more volatile prices will help to place the industry in a more competitive position. However this will require the industry and policy makers to embrace a new set of tools. For example the US dairy industry has been much more active in the management of risk and lessons from their experience provide a valuable insight into which tools may be more appropriate in an EU context.Dairy, Risk Management, EU, US,

Testing barrier materials in the development of a biosecurity pen to protect broilers against Campylobacter

peer-reviewedPrevious studies demonstrated that commercial broiler flocks could be protected from Campylobacter colonisation using a bird pen, termed the “biosecurity cube”, constructed from four polycarbonate sheets (1m high x 2.5m long x 6 mm thick) supported at the corners by 4 × 1m high wooden columns. However, this design had issues with airflow and potential for upscaling. A biosecurity cube composed of four galvanised steel mesh panels (3.44m long x 1.25m high) was therefore developed onto which different barrier materials, preventing contact between the test birds and the main flock, were attached. The objective of this study was to test a range of barrier materials including cardboard, wire mesh, polyurethane film and later (at the suggestion of broiler industry personnel) flyscreen mesh. Initial studies suggested that while the cardboard and wire mesh were ineffective, the polyurethane film protected the birds. Further validation (over 2 separate trials, 7 cubes for each barrier material) demonstrated that polyurethane and flyscreen mesh were effective. It was concluded that a biosecurity pen infrastructure based on galvanised steel mesh panels surrounded by polyurethane film or flyscreen mesh was effective at protecting the birds from Campylobacter but upscaling studies will be undertaken before full implementation

The impact of key processing stages and flock variables on the prevalence and levels of Campylobacter on broiler carcasses

peer-reviewedThis study examined the impact of key processing stages and flock variables on the prevalence of Campylobacter on broiler carcasses. Overall, the prevalence of Campylobacter was 62% in caeca, and 68%, 65% and 62% in neck skin samples collected after evisceration, final wash and carcass chilling, respectively. Campylobacter were found in 32% of caeca, and 52%, 40% and 32% of neck skin samples collected after evisceration, final wash and carcass chilling, respectively from first thin broiler batches. Final thin broiler batches were more frequently contaminated with prevalences of 83% found in caeca, 80% in neck skin samples collected after evisceration and 83% found in neck skin samples collected after both final wash and carcass chilling stages (p < 0.05). Thinning status had a significant effect on Campylobacter counts with significantly higher counts observed in samples from final thin batches (p < 0.05). Highest Campylobacter concentrations in neck skin samples were observed at the evisceration stage in both first and final thin samples, with counts ranging from 2.0 to 3.8 log10 CFU/g and 2.3 to 4.8 log10 CFU/g in first and final thin batches, respectively. All first thin samples had counts below the European Union (EU) Process Hygiene Criterion threshold level of 3 log10 CFU/g after chilling while 52% of final thin batches had counts above this limit.Food Institute Research Measur

Prevalence and levels of Campylobacter in broiler chicken batches and carcasses in Ireland in 2017–2018

peer-reviewedIn 2008, an EU wide baseline survey of broilers revealed a high Campylobacter prevalence. To assist with industry-wide controls, updated data were required. The primary objective of this study was to establish up-to-date data on Campylobacter carriage and carcass contamination in Irish broilers. Monthly samples were collected from the three largest broiler processing plants in Ireland over a twelve-month period. Samples were taken from both first and final thin birds (partial and full depopulation) from 358 batches of broilers. From each batch, a composite sample of 10 caecal contents (n = 358) and 5 neck skins (n = 1790) were collected and numbers of Campylobacter in each sample were determined. Of the 1790 neck skin samples tested, 53% were Campylobacter positive. Campylobacter was detected in the caecal contents of 66% of all batches tested. Depopulation and/or age had a significant effect on Campylobacter prevalence with 67% of final thin broilers yielding Campylobacter-positive neck skin samples in contrast to 38% of first thin broilers that yielded positive neck skin samples (P ≤ 0.002). A significant seasonal variation was observed in the rate of Campylobacter-positive caecal samples with higher prevalence seen in July (85%) than the colder months of November (61%), December (50%), January (61%) March (57%) and April (59%). Neck skin samples were 7 times more likely to be Campylobacter positive if the caecal contents from the same batch were positive (odds ratio = 7.1; P ≤ 0.0001). The decrease in Campylobacter prevalence observed in neck skin and caecal contents demonstrates the improvements and progress made in reducing prevalences of this important enteropathogen in the Irish poultry industry since the 2008 EU baseline survey. It also provides further supporting data on the impact of thinning, the processing environment and season on Campylobacter prevalence

Atypical processing of voice sounds in infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a reduced sensitivity (degree of selective response) to social stimuli such as human voices. In order to determine whether this reduced sensitivity is a consequence of years of poor social interaction and communication or is present prior to significant experience, we used functional MRI to examine cortical sensitivity to auditory stimuli in infants at high familial risk for later emerging ASD (HR group, N = 15), and compared this to infants with no family history of ASD (LR group, N = 18). The infants (aged between 4 and 7 months) were presented with voice and environmental sounds while asleep in the scanner and their behaviour was also examined in the context of observed parent-infant interaction. Whereas LR infants showed early specialisation for human voice processing in right temporal and medial frontal regions, the HR infants did not. Similarly, LR infants showed stronger sensitivity than HR infants to sad vocalisations in the right fusiform gyrus and left hippocampus. Also, in the HR group only, there was an association between each infant's degree of engagement during social interaction and the degree of voice sensitivity in key cortical regions. These results suggest that at least some infants at high-risk for ASD have atypical neural responses to human voice with and without emotional valence. Further exploration of the relationship between behaviour during social interaction and voice processing may help better understand the mechanisms that lead to different outcomes in at risk populations

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

CSF1R inhibitor JNJ-40346527 attenuates microglial proliferation and neurodegeneration in P301S mice

Neuroinflammation and microglial activation are significant processes in Alzheimer’s disease pathology. Recent genome-wide association studies have highlighted multiple immune-related genes in association with Alzheimer’s disease, and experimental data have demonstrated microglial proliferation as a significant component of the neuropathology. In this study, we tested the efficacy of the selective CSF1R inhibitor JNJ-40346527 (JNJ-527) in the P301S mouse tauopathy model. We first demonstrated the anti-proliferative effects of JNJ-527 on microglia in the ME7 prion model, and its impact on the inflammatory profile, and provided potential CNS biomarkers for clinical investigation with the compound, including pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics and efficacy assessment by TSPO autoradiography and CSF proteomics. Then, we showed for the first time that blockade of microglial proliferation and modification of microglial phenotype leads to an attenuation of tau-induced neurodegeneration and results in functional improvement in P301S mice. Overall, this work strongly supports the potential for inhibition of CSF1R as a target for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and other tau-mediated neurodegenerative diseases

Inflammatory biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease plasma

Introduction:Plasma biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis/stratification are a“Holy Grail” of AD research and intensively sought; however, there are no well-established plasmamarkers.Methods:A hypothesis-led plasma biomarker search was conducted in the context of internationalmulticenter studies. The discovery phase measured 53 inflammatory proteins in elderly control (CTL;259), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; 199), and AD (262) subjects from AddNeuroMed.Results:Ten analytes showed significant intergroup differences. Logistic regression identified five(FB, FH, sCR1, MCP-1, eotaxin-1) that, age/APOε4 adjusted, optimally differentiated AD andCTL (AUC: 0.79), and three (sCR1, MCP-1, eotaxin-1) that optimally differentiated AD and MCI(AUC: 0.74). These models replicated in an independent cohort (EMIF; AUC 0.81 and 0.67). Twoanalytes (FB, FH) plus age predicted MCI progression to AD (AUC: 0.71).Discussion:Plasma markers of inflammation and complement dysregulation support diagnosis andoutcome prediction in AD and MCI. Further replication is needed before clinical translatio