Macroeconomic immigration determinants: An analysis of ‘pull’ factors of international migration to South Africa

This research empirically examines the macroeconomic determinants of ‘pull’ factors of international migration in South Africa. Using the neoclassical economic model of international migration, an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was run on time-series data from the World Bank data base for the period 1990-2012. Relevant data from the South African Department of Home Affairs’ Annual Reports were also used. GDP per capita, inflation rate, real interest rate, employment rate and public health expenditure were found to be the key determinants which entice migrants away from their countries and direct them to “better off” destinations. The country’s public education system, on the other hand, is not a significant attraction for foreign migrants. The study concludes that the South African government urgently needs to implement not only skilled worker-attractive immigration policies but also appropriate fiscal and monetary restructuring policies aimed at growing the economy and creating employment opportunities

Economic Feasibility of a New Method to Estimate Mortality in Crisis-Affected and Resource-Poor Settings

INTRODUCTION: Mortality data provide essential evidence on the health status of populations in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings and to guide and assess relief operations. Retrospective surveys are commonly used to collect mortality data in such populations, but require substantial resources and have important methodological limitations. We evaluated the feasibility of an alternative method for rapidly quantifying mortality (the informant method). The study objective was to assess the economic feasibility of the informant method. METHODS: The informant method captures deaths through an exhaustive search for all deaths occurring in a population over a defined and recent recall period, using key community informants and next-of-kin of decedents. Between July and October 2008, we implemented and evaluated the informant method in: Kabul, Afghanistan; Mae La camp for Karen refugees, Thai-Burma border; Chiradzulu District, Malawi; and Lugufu and Mtabila refugee camps, Tanzania. We documented the time and cost inputs for the informant method in each site, and compared these with projections for hypothetical retrospective mortality surveys implemented in the same site with a 6 month recall period and with a 30 day recall period. FINDINGS: The informant method was estimated to require an average of 29% less time inputs and 33% less monetary inputs across all four study sites when compared with retrospective surveys with a 6 month recall period, and 88% less time inputs and 86% less monetary inputs when compared with retrospective surveys with a 1 month recall period. Verbal autopsy questionnaires were feasible and efficient, constituting only 4% of total person-time for the informant method's implementation in Chiradzulu District. CONCLUSIONS: The informant method requires fewer resources and incurs less respondent burden. The method's generally impressive feasibility and the near real-time mortality data it provides warrant further work to develop the method given the importance of mortality measurement in such settings

Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria Health Services in sub-Saharan Africa – A Situation Analysis of the Disruptions and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: The unprecedented and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in African countries’ health systems. The impact of shifted focus on COVID-19 for the past 2 years on routine health services, especially those for the epidemics of Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria, have been dramatic in both quantity and quality. Methods: In this article, we reflect on the COVID-19 related disruptions on the Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria routine health services across Africa. Results: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in disruptions of routine health services and diversion of already limited available resources in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, disease programs like TB, malaria and HIV have recorded gaps in prevention and treatment with the prospects of reversing gains made towards meeting global targets. The extent of the disruption is yet to be fully quantified at country level as most data available is from modelling estimates before and during the pandemic. Conclusions: Accurate country-level data is required to convince donors and governments to invest more into revamping these health services and help prepare for managing future pandemics without disruption of routine services. Increasing government expenditure on health is a critical part of Africa's economic policy. Strengthening health systems at various levels to overcome the negative impacts of COVID-19, and preparing for future epidemics will require strong visionary political leadership. Innovations in service delivery and technological adaptations are required as countries aim to limit disruptions to routine services

An investigation into the correlation of vitamin D status and management outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 at a South African tertiary hospital

Background: Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a poor prognosis, and biomarkers may predict disease severity. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of baseline vitamin D (VitD) inadequacy on the outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in South Africa. // Methods: Patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were recruited during wave II of the pandemic in Cape Town. Eighty-six patients were included in the study. They were categorized into three groups: VitD deficient, VitD insufficient, and VitD sufficient. The VitD deficient and VitD insufficient groups were combined to form a ‘VitD inadequate’ group. Cox regression analysis was done to assess the association between VitD status and mortality. Factors with P < 0.05 in the adjusted multivariable Cox regression analysis were considered statistically significant. // Results: The proportion of VitD inadequacy was 64% (55/86); this group had a significantly higher proportion with hypertension (66%; P = 0.012). The Kaplan–Meier curve showed no significant difference in the probability of survival among the COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU with or without VitD inadequacy. However, patients with elevated serum creatinine were significantly more at risk of dying (adjusted hazard ratio 1.008, 95% confidence interval 1.002–1.030; P = 0.017). // Conclusions: This study found a high prevalence of VitD inadequacy (combined deficiency and insufficiency) in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU. This may indicate a possible risk of severe disease. Whilst there was no statistically significant relationship between VitD status and mortality in this cohort, baseline VitD may be an important prognostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU, particularly in those with comorbidities that predispose to VitD deficiency

Comparison of patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit in South Africa during the first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND: The second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19), dominated by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Beta variant, has been reported to be associated with increased severity in South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVES: To describe and compare clinical characteristics, management and outcomes of COVID‑19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in SA during the first and second waves. METHODS: In a prospective, single-centre, descriptive study, we compared all patients with severe COVID‑19 admitted to ICU during the first and second waves. The primary outcomes assessed were ICU mortality and ICU length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: In 490 patients with comparable ages and comorbidities, no difference in mortality was demonstrated during the second compared with the first wave (65.9% v. 62.5%, p=0.57). ICU LOS was longer in the second wave (10 v. 6 days, p<0.001). More female admissions (67.1% v. 44.6%, p<0.001) and a greater proportion of patients were managed with invasive mechanical ventilation than with non-invasive respiratory support (39.0% v. 14%, p<0.001) in the second wave. CONCLUSIONS: While clinical characteristics were comparable between the two waves, a higher proportion of patients was invasively ventilated and ICU stay was longer in the second. ICU mortality was unchanged

Immunologic and vascular biomarkers of mortality in critical COVID-19 in a South African cohort

Introduction: Biomarkers predicting mortality among critical Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients provide insight into the underlying pathophysiology of fatal disease and assist with triaging of cases in overburdened settings. However, data describing these biomarkers in Sub-Saharan African populations are sparse. Methods: We collected serum samples and corresponding clinical data from 87 patients with critical COVID-19 on day 1 of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A second sample from the same patients was collected on day 7 of ICU admission. Patients were followed up until in-hospital death or hospital discharge. A custom-designed 52 biomarker panel was performed on the Luminex® platform. Data were analyzed for any association between biomarkers and mortality based on pre-determined functional groups, and individual analytes. Results: Of 87 patients, 55 (63.2%) died and 32 (36.8%) survived. We found a dysregulated cytokine response in patients who died, with elevated levels of type-1 and type-2 cytokines, chemokines, and acute phase reactants, as well as reduced levels of regulatory T cell cytokines. Interleukin (IL)-15 and IL-18 were elevated in those who died, and levels reduced over time in those who survived. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein, Endothelin-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 were elevated in those who died. Discussion: These results show the pattern of dysregulation in critical COVID-19 in a Sub-Saharan African cohort. They suggest that fatal COVID-19 involved excessive activation of cytotoxic cells and the NLRP3 (nucleotide-binding domain, leucine-rich–containing family, pyrin domain–containing-3) inflammasome. Furthermore, superinfection and endothelial dysfunction with thrombosis might have contributed to mortality. HIV infection did not affect the outcome. A clinically relevant biosignature including PCT, pH and lymphocyte percentage on differential count, had an 84.8% sensitivity for mortality, and outperformed the Luminex-derived biosignature

A point-prevalence study of body mass indices in HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in South Africa

Background. Obesity is now well recognised as a risk factor for severe COVID‐19, but the true prevalence of obesity in hospitalised adults with COVID‐19 remains unclear because formal body mass indices (BMIs) are not routinely measured on admission. Objectives. To describe the true prevalence of obesity measured by the BMI, and associated comorbidities, in patients hospitalised with severe COVID‐19, including people with HIV (PWH). Methods. We conducted a point‐prevalence study of measured BMI in consecutive patients with severe COVID‐19 admitted to the medical COVID‐19 wards in a tertiary academic hospital in Cape Town, South Africa (SA). Patients were enrolled over a 2‐week period during the peak of the first COVID‐19 wave in SA. Results. We were able to measure the BMI in 122 of the 146 patients admitted during the study period. The prevalence of HIV was 20% (n=24/122). Most of the participants were overweight or obese (n=104; 85%), and 84 (68.9%) met criteria for obesity. The mean (standard deviation) BMI was 33 (7.5), and 34.5 (9.1) in PWH. Of PWH, 83% (n=20/24) were overweight or obese and 75% (n=18) met criteria for obesity. Multimorbidity was present in 22 (92%) of PWH. Conclusion. We found that most patients, including PWH, met criteria for being overweight or obese. The high prevalence of obesity in PWH and severe COVID‐19 reinforces the need for targeted management of non‐communicable diseases, including obesity, in PWH

The Critical Need for Pooled Data on Coronavirus Disease 2019 in African Children: An AFREhealth Call for Action Through Multicountry Research Collaboration

Globally, there are prevailing knowledge gaps in the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among children and adolescents; and these gaps are especially wide in African countries. The availability of robust age-disaggregated data is a critical first step in improving knowledge on disease burden and manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children. Furthermore, it is essential to improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2 interactions with comorbidities and coinfections such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis, malaria, sickle cell disease, and malnutrition, which are highly prevalent among children in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health (AFREhealth) COVID-19 Research Collaboration on Children and Adolescents is conducting studies across Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa to address existing knowledge gaps. This consortium is expected to generate key evidence to inform clinical practice and public health policy-making for COVID-19 while concurrently addressing other major diseases affecting children in African countries

Cardiopulmonary disease as sequelae of long-term COVID-19: Current perspectives and challenges

COVID-19 infection primarily targets the lungs, which in severe cases progresses to cytokine storm, acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan dysfunction, and shock. Survivors are now presenting evidence of cardiopulmonary sequelae such as persistent right ventricular dysfunction, chronic thrombosis, lung fibrosis, and pulmonary hypertension. This review will summarize the current knowledge on long-term cardiopulmonary sequelae of COVID-19 and provide a framework for approaching the diagnosis and management of these entities. We will also identify research priorities to address areas of uncertainty and improve the quality of care provided to these patients

Population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa: collation and synthesis of survey data, 2010-23.

Background Key population HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa require epidemiological information to ensure equitable and universal access to effective services. We aimed to consolidate and harmonise survey data among female sex workers, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, and transgender people to estimate key population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Key population size estimates, HIV prevalence, and ART coverage data from 39 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 2010 and 2023 were collated from existing databases and verified against source documents. We used Bayesian mixed-effects spatial regression to model urban key population size estimates as a proportion of the gender-matched, year-matched, and area-matched population aged 15–49 years. We modelled subnational key population HIV prevalence and ART coverage with age-matched, gender-matched, year-matched, and province-matched total population estimates as predictors. Findings We extracted 2065 key population size data points, 1183 HIV prevalence data points, and 259 ART coverage data points. Across national urban populations, a median of 1·65% (IQR 1·35–1·91) of adult cisgender women were female sex workers, 0·89% (0·77–0·95) were men who have sex with men, 0·32% (0·31–0·34) were men who injected drugs, and 0·10% (0·06–0·12) were women who were transgender. HIV prevalence among key populations was, on average, four to six times higher than matched total population prevalence, and ART coverage was correlated with, but lower than, the total population ART coverage with wide heterogeneity in relative ART coverage across studies. Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations were estimated as comprising 1·2% (95% credible interval 0·9–1·6) of the total population aged 15–49 years but 6·1% (4·5–8·2) of people living with HIV. Interpretation Key populations in sub-Saharan Africa experience higher HIV prevalence and lower ART coverage, underscoring the need for focused prevention and treatment services. In 2024, limited data availability and heterogeneity constrain precise estimates for programming and monitoring trends. Strengthening key population surveys and routine data within national HIV strategic information systems would support more precise estimates