Estimating the Prevalence of Entrapment in Post-9/11 Terrorism Cases

How many of the terrorism convictions since September 11, 2001 have been the product of entrapment? Some scholars and journalists have suggested that the number is quite high. One report went so far as to claim that only 1% of terrorism prosecutions involve “real” terrorism. The government’s defenders, at the opposite extreme, come close to saying that entrapment in a terrorism case is a contradiction in terms. Little empirical basis exists for evaluating these competing claims. Existing literature on terrorism and entrapment is typically based on detailed discussions of a few egregious cases, rather than systematic analysis of the phenomenon. Yet estimating the prevalence of entrapment is critical for evaluating the ethics and effectiveness of contemporary counterterrorism policies. This Article remedies this dearth of information by creating and analyzing a database of terrorism prosecutions since 9/11 (n=580), and coding each of the cases involving an informant (n=317) for twenty indicators of potential entrapment. An analysis of the database reveals that entrapment indicators are widespread among terrorism cases, and that the most serious cases, involving specific plots to commit attacks, have significantly more indicators. Cases with several indicators account for a sizable proportion of all cases, especially among alleged cases of jihadi and left-wing terrorism. These results show that facts and allegations supporting an entrapment defense are not confined to a small number of cases, but rather are quite widespread in post-9/11 terrorism cases. The Article also examines the suggestion by a journalist that only 1% of terrorism cases have represented a real security threat. It estimates that the proportion of terrorism prosecutions likely to have thwarted genuine terrorism threats is somewhat higher, though still small—about 9% of all jihadi cases and 5% of jihadi cases involving informants. In light of these findings, the Article recommends that authorities rethink current counterterrorism strategies, concentrating on passive surveillance instead of attempts to coax law-abiding Muslims into terrorist schemes, and shifting more resources toward preventing right-wing terrorism. Finally, the Article proposes reforms that would require the government to have a reasonable suspicion of criminal activity before inducing a suspect into committing a crime, and that would base the entrapment defense on the defendant’s realistic likelihood of committing an offense without government prompting

Estimating the Prevalence of Entrapment in Post-9/11 Terrorism Cases

How many of the terrorism convictions since September 11, 2001 have been the product of entrapment? Some scholars and journalists have suggested that the number is quite high. One report went so far as to claim that only 1% of terrorism prosecutions involve “real” terrorism. The government’s defenders, at the opposite extreme, come close to saying that entrapment in a terrorism case is a contradiction in terms. Little empirical basis exists for evaluating these competing claims. Existing literature on terrorism and entrapment is typically based on detailed discussions of a few egregious cases, rather than systematic analysis of the phenomenon. Yet estimating the prevalence of entrapment is critical for evaluating the ethics and effectiveness of contemporary counterterrorism policies. This Article remedies this dearth of information by creating and analyzing a database of terrorism prosecutions since 9/11 (n=580), and coding each of the cases involving an informant (n=317) for twenty indicators of potential entrapment. An analysis of the database reveals that entrapment indicators are widespread among terrorism cases, and that the most serious cases, involving specific plots to commit attacks, have significantly more indicators. Cases with several indicators account for a sizable proportion of all cases, especially among alleged cases of jihadi and left-wing terrorism. These results show that facts and allegations supporting an entrapment defense are not confined to a small number of cases, but rather are quite widespread in post-9/11 terrorism cases. The Article also examines the suggestion by a journalist that only 1% of terrorism cases have represented a real security threat. It estimates that the proportion of terrorism prosecutions likely to have thwarted genuine terrorism threats is somewhat higher, though still small—about 9% of all jihadi cases and 5% of jihadi cases involving informants. In light of these findings, the Article recommends that authorities rethink current counterterrorism strategies, concentrating on passive surveillance instead of attempts to coax law-abiding Muslims into terrorist schemes, and shifting more resources toward preventing right-wing terrorism. Finally, the Article proposes reforms that would require the government to have a reasonable suspicion of criminal activity before inducing a suspect into committing a crime, and that would base the entrapment defense on the defendant’s realistic likelihood of committing an offense without government prompting

Severity of Maternal HIV-1 Disease Is Associated With Adverse Birth Outcomes in Malawian Women: A Cohort Study

Compared to HIV-negative women, HIV-infected women have increased risk of low birth weight (LBW) and preterm delivery (PTD). We assessed whether severity of maternal HIV-1 disease was associated with LBW or PTD

Comparing pediatric gastroenteritis emergency department care in Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND: Between-country variation in health care resource use and its impact on outcomes in acute care settings have been challenging to disentangle from illness severity by using administrative data. METHODS: We conducted a preplanned analysis employing patient-level emergency department (ED) data from children enrolled in 2 previously conducted clinical trials. Participants aged 3 to,48 months with,72 hours of gastroenteritis were recruited in pediatric EDs in the United States (N = 10 sites; 588 participants) and Canada (N = 6 sites; 827 participants). The primary outcome was an unscheduled health care provider visit within 7 days; the secondary outcomes were intravenous fluid administration and hospitalization at or within 7 days of the index visit. RESULTS: In adjusted analysis, unscheduled revisits within 7 days did not differ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 1.02). At the index ED visit, although participants in Canada were assessed as being more dehydrated, intravenous fluids were administered more frequently in the United States (aOR: 4.6; 95% CI: 2.9 to 7.1). Intravenous fluid administration rates did not differ after enrollment (aOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.8; US cohort with Canadian as referent). Overall, intravenous rehydration was higher in the United States (aOR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.5 to 5.7). Although hospitalization rates during the 7 days after enrollment (aOR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.4 to 2.6) did not differ, hospitalization at the index visit was more common in the United States (3.9% vs 2.3%; aOR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.6 to 6.8). CONCLUSIONS: Among children with gastroenteritis and similar disease severity, revisit rates were similar in our 2 study cohorts, despite lower rates of intravenous rehydration and hospitalization in Canadian-based EDs

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds

State of the art. Overview of concepts, indicators and methodologies used for analyzing the social OMC.

This paper is a detailed analysis about the literature on the Social OMC from 2006-2010, focusing on how OMC research has been carried out. It specifically points to which theoretical framework/concepts are used, and how change is conceptualised and measured. It is organised in five sections. The first concerns visibility and awareness about the OMC; the second analyses research on the EU level coordination process; the third scrutinizes how features of the OMC have been analysed. The fourth and fifth sections, addressing how national integration of the OMC has been researched, respectively address substantive policy change as well as national policy-making. Strikingly, virtually all OMC research adopts theoretical frameworks derived from literature on Europeanisation and/or institutionalisation. Also, as the OMC is voluntary and sanction-free, it depends heavily on how and the the extent to which actors use it (agenda-setting, conflict resolution, maintaining focus on a policy issue, developing a policy dialogue, etc). OMC research has become nuanced and does highlight how, for which purpose and with which outcome actors engage with the OMC. Another finding is that there is data on policy issues addressed through the OMC, learning does take place and there is knowledge about domestic policy problems. However, the linkage between knowledge of an issue and direct use of the OMC for policy change in social policy is weak, but that may change with EU2020, where social policy has received a higher profile. Most research covers the EU-15, much more research needs to be undertaken in newer EU member states

The Earned Release Revolution: Early Assessments and State-Level Strategies

Reacting to widespread budget crises, many states are experimenting with earned release (also known as “early release”) legislation to help cut correctional costs. This earned release revolution is a stark reversal of earlier trends toward determinate sentencing. Implementing earned release policies appropriately could help bring about a new sentencing era characterized by lower rates of incarceration and higher levels of public safety. However, earned release is potentially vulnerable to abuse and prone to backlash, and must be planned and implemented carefully to avoid endangering the public, fostering injustice, or failing to realize hoped-for budgetary savings. This Article outlines a set of principles for ensuring the success of earned release, using Wisconsin as a case study because of its unusually complex array of earned release policies over the last decade. After a preliminary evaluation of Wisconsin’s recent earned release policies, this Article presents four principles for an effective earned release system. Specifically, state policymakers dealing with earned release legislation should (a) prevent injustice by monitoring for bias and requiring structured, recorded decision-making; (b) provide for effective implementation through strategic governance; (c) ensure earned release is compatible with public safety; and (d) complement earned release with other measures designed to decrease incarceration. This Article also uses preliminary data to respond to recent work on earned release and sentence modification. First, in response to arguments for the superiority of judicial rather than administrative sentence modification, the Article provides evidence that judicial sentence modification mechanisms may widen racial disparities. Second, addressing the concern that administratively-run earned release might exacerbate racial disparities, I show that this has not occurred in Wisconsin. Finally, I demonstrate that Wisconsin’s expanded earned release programs, in their first full year of implementation, only released about 100 inmates who would not have been released that year anyway (about .5% of the state’s prison population). While this does not prove that earned release can never be a major factor in reducing prison populations, it does reinforce the Article’s argument for supplementing earned release with other incarceration-lowering policies