Forests, fire and vegetation change impacts on Murray-Darling basin water resources

The Murray-Darling River system is perhaps Australia’s most important, with significant social, cultural and environmental values including 16 Ramsar listed wetlands. The MDB is home to 2.6 million people and produces about $24 billion worth in agricultural production each year (about one-third of total value for Australia). Hydrologic issues, typified by water availability and quality, have existed for many years, peaking during the Millennium drought from 1997 to 2010. Competing interests (i.e. irrigation, tourism, environmental heath), and the declining flows and water quality during droughts, led governments and water management agencies to consider the risks to water resources in the system in the early-mid 2000s. This paper reviews changes to risks associated with forest dynamics, as identified by - afforestation and bushfire–and considers new issues that have emerged since that analysis. It was found that the potential impacts of bushfire on stream flows were over-estimated in past studies, and that a planned significant afforestation expansion into agricultural and grazing land that was projected to reduce stream flows did not occur. While these two risks now do not seem likely to have significant future impacts on flows, or consequent effects on downstream users, the interaction of elevated CO2 and increasing temperatures on vegetation functioning and subsequent hydrologic consequences at catchment scale require further research and analysis. Reduced rainfall and increased temperatures under future climate change are likely to have an impact on inputs and flows. Uncertainties in how these changes, and feedbacks between climate, drought, more frequent fire and vegetation responses, impact on system hydrology also require further investigation

Using dense Sentinel-2 time series to explore combined fire and drought impacts in eucalypt forests

Following one of the driest years on record, millions of hectares of forests in southeast Australia were burned in the 2019-20200 "Black Summer" wildfires. In addition to the areas burned, drought related canopy collapse, dieback and tree mortality was widely observed. In this paper, we present a method to map canopy damage due to drought and fire across a large area. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery was used in a monthly time series to highlight areas of forest where the Normalized Burn Ratio index was significantly below a pre-disturbance "stable" period. The stable period was defined as the 3 years prior to 2019 and the disturbance thresholds are based on bioregion specific standard deviations below pre-disturbance means. The novel methods enabled drought impacted forests to be identified, including those which were subsequently burned by wildfire. Across the 20 Mha of forests studied, 9.9 Mha (49%) fell below the disturbance threshold. Of that, 5.8 Mha was disturbed by fire and a further 4.1 Mha by drought outside of the fire extent. Within the fire extent, almost 0.9 Mha was identified as being significantly drought affected prior to being burned. An analysis of spectral recovery following substantial rainfall from February 2020 onward indicates that most of the areas impacted by both drought and fire have similar rates of recovery to those impacted only by fire. There are some areas, however, where the combined effects of the "double disturbance "appears to be hindering recovery. The methods presented here are easily transferrable and demonstrate an approach for monitoring forest disturbance at higher temporal and spatial scales than those typically used

Extreme fire weather is the major driver of severe bushfires in southeast Australia

In Australia, the proportion of forest area that burns in a typical fire season is less than for other vegetation types. However, the 2019–2020 austral spring-summer was an exception, with over four times the previous maximum area burnt in southeast Australian temperate forests. Temperate forest fires have extensive socio-economic, human health, greenhouse gas emissions, and biodiversity impacts due to high fire intensities. A robust model that identifies driving factors of forest fires and relates impact thresholds to fire activity at regional scales would help land managers and fire-fighting agencies prepare for potentially hazardous fire in Australia. Here, we developed a machine-learning diagnostic model to quantify nonlinear relationships between monthly burnt area and biophysical factors in southeast Australian forests for 2001–2020 on a 0.25° grid based on several biophysical parameters, notably fire weather and vegetation productivity. Our model explained over 80% of the variation in the burnt area. We identified that burnt area dynamics in southeast Australian forest were primarily controlled by extreme fire weather, which mainly linked to fluctuations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with a relatively smaller contribution from the central Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our fire diagnostic model and the non-linear relationships between burnt area and environmental covariates can provide useful guidance to decision-makers who manage preparations for an upcoming fire season, and model developers working on improved early warning systems for forest fires

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future

Recovery potential of microwetlands from agricultural land uses

Many ecosystems located within agricultural landscapes are in decline, particularly woodlands, grasslands and wetlands. Surviving remnants are generally fragmented and unrepresentative of pre-disturbance states. Here, we investigate the potential for recovery of ecosystem function in a grassy woodland–wetland mosaic in south-eastern Australia. We focus on the Plains Woodland/ Herb-rich Gilgai Wetland Mosaics which have declined in extent by 85%. The gilgai soils form a distinctive microrelief of mounds and depressions which become seasonally waterlogged, providing important habitat for a large range of aquatic and dryland species. We surveyed 10 remnants subject to agricultural intensification and seven remnants subject to passive restoration (four with cessation of cultivation and three with livestock removal). Gilgai microrelief was homogenized by cultivation, showed some recovery after release from cultivation, and was insensitive to grazing pressure. Floristic diversity, assessed through indicator species, was vulnerable to grazing. Indicator species were more prevalent in previously grazed sites, but further study is required to determine whether this reflects recovery or differing overall management history. We conclude that passive restoration is possible for recovery of wetland function and some biodiversity values. These conservation actions should be encouraged given the important role these microwetlands play in landscape connectivity and as drought refugia

Carbon and water fluxes in two adjacent Australian semi-arid ecosystems

The southern hemisphere and especially Australian arid and semi-arid ecosystems played a significant role in the 2011 global land carbon sink anomaly. Arid and semi-arid regions occupy 70% of the Australian land surface, dominated by two biomes: Mulga woodlands and spinifex grasslands or savannas. We monitored carbon and water fluxes in two of these characteristic ecosystems: a Mulga woodland (2010–2017) and a Corymbia savanna dominated by spinifex grasses (2012–2017). The aims of this study were to compare net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET) of these two ecosystems and to identify precipitation thresholds at which these ecosystems switched from being a C source to a C sink. Annual NEP in the Mulga woodland ranged from −47 to 217 gC m−2 y−1 (2010–2017), with the second largest positive NEP observed during the global C sink anomaly (162 gC m−2 y−1, 2010–2011). By contrast in the Corymbia savanna, annual NEP ranged from −190 to 115 gC m−2 y−1, with frequent occurrences of negative NEP and larger ET rates than for the Mulga woodland. Precipitation thresholds were identified at 262 mm y−1 and 507 mm y−1 in the Mulga woodland and the Corymbia savanna, respectively. Soil water content (SWC), along with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit, was a significant driver for water fluxes in both ecosystems (SWC–ET correlation of 0.5–0.56) and for carbon fluxes in the woodland (SWC–NEP and SWC–GPP correlation of −0.51 and −0.41, respectively). Arid and semi-arid ecosystems have dominated the inter-annual variability of the global terrestrial C sink, thus identifying precipitation thresholds at which ecosystems switch from being a C source to a C sink is important for furthering our understanding of the global C and water budget and for modelling of future climate

Increasing threat of wildfires : the year 2020 in perspective : a Global Ecology and Biogeography special issue

Aim: Each year, wild and managed fires burn roughly 4 million km2 [~400 million hectares (Mha)] of savanna, forest, grassland and agricultural ecosystems. Land use and climate change have altered fire regimes throughout the world, with a trend toward higher-severity fires found from Australia, the Americas, Europe and Asia, to the Arctic. In 2020, there were notable catastrophic fires in Australia (in the 2019/20 Austral fire season), the Western United States, South America and Siberia. These fires defined much of the global fire year and were compounded by the socio-economic disruption of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Location: Global. Time period: 2020. Major taxa studied: Flora and fauna. Methods: The Global Ecology and Biogeography special issue, ‘Increasing threat of wildfires: the year 2020 in perspective’, includes 18 papers that catalogue these fire events, their drivers and their impacts on flora and fauna. Results: Collectively, these papers highlight the importance of fire response traits, exposure and sensitivity to interacting threats in determining fire impacts. Main conclusions: The scale of the 2020 megafires has helped identify new research areas required to more comprehensively assess fire impacts on biodiversity and biogeochemistry and to inform ecosystem management

Assessing China's agricultural water use efficiency in a green-blue water perspective : a study based on data envelopment analysis

Uneven water resources and growing food demand due to an increasing population bring challenges to China. One important mechanism to address these challenges is to enhance water use efficiency (WUE). This requires information on current efficiencies in water use for agricultural production. In this study, we provide a benchmarking tool to assess relative agricultural WUE in 31 provinces in China during 2003-2013. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used with both green-blue water and blue-only scenarios. Results show that China’s agricultural WUE has improved evidently after 2008. Overall technical efficiency (TE) and the pure technical efficiency (PTE) in China based on the green-blue scenario are relatively high, with the average potential increase less than 10% (8% and 4%, respectively). However, there is a larger potential for blue water use efficiency (14% and 7% respectively). The PTE in Northern China (NC) is higher than that in Southern China (SC) while the TE in NC is lower under green-blue scenario. Moreover, the TE and PTE in NC are lower than that in SC under blue-only scenario. These results indicate that green water management techniques in NC are superior to SC but the scale efficiency (SE) in NC is lower. There are four provinces where the efficiency values are on the frontier in four cases, i.e. two scenarios (green-blue and blue-only) and two assumptions in DEA, but fourteen provinces where the efficiency values are not on the frontier in any case and most of them were located in SC. Our results also suggest that improving SE can substantially contribute to national WUE, but exploring the solutions to enhance blue water use efficiency in China is also a key task in the future works. The research results have important implications for China and different provinces to improve agricultural WUE by water policies and management

Stand-level variation in evapotranspiration in non-water-limited eucalypt forests

To better understand water and energy cycles in forests over years to decades, measurements of spatial and long-term temporal variability in evapotranspiration (Ea) are needed. In mountainous terrain, plot-level measurements are important to achieving this. Forest inventory data including tree density and size measurements, often collected repeatedly over decades, sample the variability occurring within the geographic and topographic range of specific forest types. Using simple allometric relationships, tree stocking and size data can be used to estimate variables including sapwood area index (SAI), which may be strongly correlated with annual Ea. This study analysed plot-level variability in SAI and its relationship with overstorey and understorey transpiration, interception and evaporation over a 670 m elevation gradient, in non-water-limited, even-aged stands of Eucalyptus regnans F. Muell. to determine how well spatial variation in annual Ea from forests can be mapped using SAI. Over the 3 year study, mean sap velocity in five E. regnans stands was uncorrelated with overstorey sapwood area index (SAI) or elevation: annual transpiration was predicted well by SAI (R2 0.98). Overstorey and total annual interception were positively correlated with SAI (R2 0.90 and 0.75). Ea from the understorey was strongly correlated with vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and net radiation (Rn) measured just above the understorey, but relationships between understorey Ea and VPD and Rn differed between understorey types and understorey annual Ea was not correlated with SAI. Annual total Ea was also strongly correlated with SAI: the relationship being similar to two previous studies in the same region, despite differences in stand age and species. Thus, spatial variation in annual Ea can be reliably mapped using measurements of SAI

Mapping soil organic carbon stocks in Nepal's forests

Comprehensive forest carbon accounting requires reliable estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Despite being an important carbon pool, limited information is available on SOC stocks in global forests, particularly for forests in mountainous regions, such as the Central Himalayas. The availability of consistently measured new field data enabled us to accurately estimate forest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Nepal, addressing a previously existing knowledge gap. Our method involved modelling plot-based estimates of forest SOC using covariates related to climate, soil, and topographic position. Our quantile random forest model resulted in the high spatial resolution prediction of Nepal’s national forest SOC stock together with prediction uncertainties. Our spatially explicit forest SOC map showed the high SOC levels in high-elevation forests and a significant underrepresentation of these stocks in global-scale assessments. Our results offer an improved baseline on the distribution of total carbon in the forests of the Central Himalayas. The benchmark maps of predicted forest SOC and associated errors, along with our estimate of 494 million tonnes (SE = 16) of total SOC in the topsoil (0–30 cm) of forested areas in Nepal, carry important implications for understanding the spatial variability of forest