Forecasting the Effective Reproduction Number during a Pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, Governmental Decisions, and Economic Implications

This research empirically identifies the best-performing forecasting methods for the Effective Reproduction Number Rt of COVID-19, the most used epidemiological parameter for policymaking during the pandemic. Furthermore, based on the most accurate forecasts for the United Kingdom, we model the excess exports and imports during the pandemic (using World Trade Organization data), while simultaneously controlling for governmental decisions, i.e., lockdown(s) and vaccination. We provide empirical evidence that the longer the lockdown lasts, the larger the cost to the economy is, predominantly for international trade. We show that imposing a lockdown leads to exports falling by 16.55% in the United Kingdom; without a lockdown, the respective decrease for the same period would be only 1.57%. On the other hand, efforts towards fast population vaccination improve the economy. We believe our results can help policymakers to make better decisions before and during future pandemics

The impact of imperfect weather forecasts on wind power forecasting performance: Evidence from two wind farms in Greece

Weather variables are an important driver of power generation from renewable energy sources. However, accurately predicting such variables is a challenging task, which has a significant impact on the accuracy of the power generation forecasts. In this study, we explore the impact of imperfect weather forecasts on two classes of forecasting methods (statistical and machine learning) for the case of wind power generation. We perform a stress test analysis to measure the robustness of different methods on the imperfect weather input, focusing on both the point forecasts and the 95% prediction intervals. The results indicate that different methods should be considered according to the uncertainty characterizing the weather forecasts

A disaster response model driven by spatial-temporal forecasts

In this research, we propose a disaster response model combining preparedness and responsiveness strategies. The selective response depends on the level of accuracy that our forecasting models can achieve. In order to decide the right geographical space and time window of response, forecasts are prepared and assessed through a spatial–temporal aggregation framework, until we find the optimum level of aggregation. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985–2014. Building on the produced forecasts, we develop accordingly a disaster response model. The model is dynamic in nature, as it is updated every time a new event is added in the database. Any forecasting model can be optimized though the proposed spatial–temporal forecasting framework, and as such our results can be easily generalized. This is true for other forecasting methods and in other disaster response contexts

A taxonomy of task-based parallel programming technologies for high-performance computing

Task-based programming models for shared memory -- such as Cilk Plus and OpenMP 3 -- are well established and documented. However, with the increase in parallel, many-core and heterogeneous systems, a number of research-driven projects have developed more diversified task-based support, employing various programming and runtime features. Unfortunately, despite the fact that dozens of different task-based systems exist today and are actively used for parallel and high-performance computing (HPC), no comprehensive overview or classification of task-based technologies for HPC exists. In this paper, we provide an initial task-focused taxonomy for HPC technologies, which covers both programming interfaces and runtime mechanisms. We demonstrate the usefulness of our taxonomy by classifying state-of-the-art task-based environments in use today

MindSpaces:Art-driven Adaptive Outdoors and Indoors Design

MindSpaces provides solutions for creating functionally and emotionally appealing architectural designs in urban spaces. Social media services, physiological sensing devices and video cameras provide data from sensing environments. State-of-the-Art technology including VR, 3D design tools, emotion extraction, visual behaviour analysis, and textual analysis will be incorporated in MindSpaces platform for analysing data and adapting the design of spaces.</p