On the formation and evolution of black-hole binaries

We present the results of a systematic study of the formation and evolution of binaries containing black holes and normal-star companions with a wide range of masses. We first reexamine the standard formation scenario for close black-hole binaries, where the spiral-in of the companion in the envelope of a massive star causes the ejection of the envelope. We estimate the formation rates for different companion masses and different assumptions about the common-envelope structure and other model parameters. We find that black-hole binaries with intermediate- and high-mass secondaries can form for a wide range of assumptions, while black-hole binaries with low-mass secondaries can only form with apparently unrealistic assumptions (in agreement with previous studies). We then present detailed binary evolution sequences for black-hole binaries with secondaries of 2 to 17 Msun and demonstrate that in these systems the black hole can accrete appreciably even if accretion is Eddington limited (up to 7 Msun for an initial black-hole mass of 10 Msun) and that the black holes can be spun up significantly in the process. We discuss the implications of these calculations for well-studied black-hole binaries (in particular GRS 1915+105), ultra-luminous X-ray sources and Cygnus X-1. Finally, we discuss how some of the assumptions in the standard model could be relaxed to allow the formation of low-mass, short-period black-hole binaries which appear to be very abundant in Nature. (Abstract abridged)Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, accepted by MNRAS, Figs. 2a/2b and 5 in very reduced forma

Supernova Type Ia progenitors from merging double white dwarfs: Using a new population synthesis model

The study of Type Ia supernovae (SNIa) has lead to greatly improved insights into many fields in astrophysics, however a theoretical explanation of the origin of these events is still lacking. We investigate the potential contribution to the SNIa rate from the population of merging double carbon-oxygen white dwarfs. We aim to develope a model that fits the observed SNIa progenitors as well as the observed close double white dwarf population. We differentiate between two scenarios for the common envelope (CE) evolution; the alpha-formalism based on the energy equation and the gamma-formalism that is based on the angular momentum equation. In one model we apply the alpha-formalism always. In the second model the gamma-formalism is applied, unless the binary contains a compact object or the CE is triggered by a tidal instability for which the alpha-formalism is used. The binary population synthesis code SeBa was used to evolve binary systems from the zero-age main sequence to the formation of double white dwarfs and subsequent mergers. SeBa has been thoroughly updated since the last publication of the content of the code. The limited sample of observed double white dwarfs is better represented by the simulated population using the gamma-formalism than the alpha-formalism. For both CE formalisms, we find that although the morphology of the simulated delay time distribution matches that of the observations within the errors, the normalisation and time-integrated rate per stellar mass are a factor 7-12 lower than observed. Furthermore, the characteristics of the simulated populations of merging double carbon-oxygen white dwarfs are discussed and put in the context of alternative SNIa models for merging double white dwarfs.Comment: 16 pages (including 4 pages appendix), 15 figure

Development and Internal Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting the Outcome of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy in Patients without Metastases on Restaging Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Owing to the greater use of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), patient selection for local salvage radiation therapy (sRT) has changed. Our objective was to determine the short-term efficacy of sRT in patients with BCR after RARP, and to develop a novel nomogram predicting BCR-free survival after sRT in a nationwide contemporary cohort of patients who underwent PSMA PET/CT before sRT for BCR of PCa, without evidence of metastatic disease.METHODS: All 302 eligible patients undergoing PCa sRT in four reference centers between September 2015 and August 2020 were included. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis using a backward elimination procedure to develop a nomogram for predicting biochemical progression of PCa, defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥0.2 ng/ml above the post-sRT nadir within 1 yr after sRT.KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Biochemical progression of disease within 1 yr after sRT was observed for 56/302 (19%) of the study patients. The final predictive model included PSA at sRT initiation, pathological grade group, surgical margin status, PSA doubling time, presence of local recurrence on PSMA PET/CT, and the presence of biochemical persistence (first PSA result ≥0.1 ng/ml) after RARP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.64-0.79). Using our nomogram, patients with a predicted risk of &gt;20% had a 30.8% chance of developing biochemical progression within 1 yr after sRT.CONCLUSIONS: Our novel nomogram may facilitate better patient counseling regarding early oncological outcome after sRT. Patients with high risk of biochemical progression may be candidates for more extensive treatment.PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed a new tool for predicting cancer control outcomes of radiotherapy for patients with recurrence of prostate cancer after surgical removal of their prostate. This tool may help in better counseling of these patients with recurrent cancer regarding their early expected outcome after radiotherapy.</p

Development and Internal Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting the Outcome of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy in Patients without Metastases on Restaging Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Owing to the greater use of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), patient selection for local salvage radiation therapy (sRT) has changed. Our objective was to determine the short-term efficacy of sRT in patients with BCR after RARP, and to develop a novel nomogram predicting BCR-free survival after sRT in a nationwide contemporary cohort of patients who underwent PSMA PET/CT before sRT for BCR of PCa, without evidence of metastatic disease.METHODS: All 302 eligible patients undergoing PCa sRT in four reference centers between September 2015 and August 2020 were included. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis using a backward elimination procedure to develop a nomogram for predicting biochemical progression of PCa, defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥0.2 ng/ml above the post-sRT nadir within 1 yr after sRT.KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Biochemical progression of disease within 1 yr after sRT was observed for 56/302 (19%) of the study patients. The final predictive model included PSA at sRT initiation, pathological grade group, surgical margin status, PSA doubling time, presence of local recurrence on PSMA PET/CT, and the presence of biochemical persistence (first PSA result ≥0.1 ng/ml) after RARP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.64-0.79). Using our nomogram, patients with a predicted risk of &gt;20% had a 30.8% chance of developing biochemical progression within 1 yr after sRT.CONCLUSIONS: Our novel nomogram may facilitate better patient counseling regarding early oncological outcome after sRT. Patients with high risk of biochemical progression may be candidates for more extensive treatment.PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed a new tool for predicting cancer control outcomes of radiotherapy for patients with recurrence of prostate cancer after surgical removal of their prostate. This tool may help in better counseling of these patients with recurrent cancer regarding their early expected outcome after radiotherapy.</p

Reasons for not reaching or using web-based self-management applications, and the use and evaluation of Oncokompas among cancer survivors, in the context of a randomised controlled trial

Introduction: The web-based self-management application Oncokompas was developed to support cancer survivors to monitor health-related quality of life and symptoms (Measure) and to provide tailored information (Learn) and supportive care options (Act). In a previously reported randomised controlled trial (RCT), 68% of 655 recruited survivors were eligible, and of those 45% participated in the RCT. Among participants of the RCT that were randomised to the intervention group, 52% used Oncokompas as intended. The aim of this study was to explore reasons for not participating in the RCT, and reasons for not using Oncokompas among non-users, and the use and evaluation of Oncokompas among users. Methods: Reasons for not participating were assessed with a study-specific questionnaire among 243 survivors who declined participation. Usage was investigated among 320 participants randomised to the intervention group of the RCT via system data and a study-specific questionnaire that was assessed during the 1 week follow-up (T1) assessment. Results: Main reasons for not participating were not interested in participation in scientific research (40%) and not interested in scientific research and Oncokompas (28%). Main reasons for not being interested in Oncokompas were wanting to leave the period of being ill behind (29%), no symptom burden (23%), or lacking internet skills (18%). Out of the 320 participants in the intervention group 167 (52%) used Oncokompas as intended. Among 72 non-users, main reasons for not using Oncokompas were no symptom burden (32%) or lack of time (26%). Among 248 survivors that activated their account, satisfaction and user-friendliness were rated with a 7 (scale 0–10). Within 3 (IQR 1–4) sessions, users selected 32 (IQR 6–37) topics. Main reasons for not using healthcare options in Act were that the information in Learn was already sufficient (44%) or no supportive care needs (32%). Discussion: Main reasons for not reaching or using Oncokompas were no symptom burden, no supportive care needs, or lack of time. Users selected many cancer-generic and tumour-specific topics to address, indicating added value of the wide range of available topics

Impact of ^18FFDG-PET/CT and Laparoscopy in Staging of Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer:A Cost Analysis in the Prospective Multicenter PLASTIC-Study

Background: Unnecessary D2-gastrectomy and associated costs can be prevented after detecting non-curable gastric cancer, but impact of staging on treatment costs is unclear. This study determined the cost impact of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18FFDG-PET/CT) and staging laparoscopy (SL) in gastric cancer staging. Materials and Methods:In this cost analysis, four staging strategies were modeled in a decision tree: (1) 18FFDG-PET/CT first, then SL, (2) SL only, (3) 18FFDG-PET/CT only, and (4) neither SL nor 18FFDG-PET/CT. Costs were assessed on the basis of the prospective PLASTIC-study, which evaluated adding 18FFDG-PET/CT and SL to staging advanced gastric cancer (cT3–4 and/or cN+) in 18 Dutch hospitals. The Dutch Healthcare Authority provided 18FFDG-PET/CT unit costs. SL unit costs were calculated bottom-up. Gastrectomy-associated costs were collected with hospital claim data until 30 days postoperatively. Uncertainty was assessed in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (1000 iterations). Results: 18FFDG-PET/CT costs were €1104 including biopsy/cytology. Bottom-up calculations totaled €1537 per SL. D2-gastrectomy costs were €19,308. Total costs per patient were €18,137 for strategy 1, €17,079 for strategy 2, and €19,805 for strategy 3. If all patients undergo gastrectomy, total costs were €18,959 per patient (strategy 4). Performing SL only reduced costs by €1880 per patient. Adding 18FFDG-PET/CT to SL increased costs by €1058 per patient; IQR €870–1253 in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions:For advanced gastric cancer, performing SL resulted in substantial cost savings by reducing unnecessary gastrectomies. In contrast, routine 18FFDG-PET/CT increased costs without substantially reducing unnecessary gastrectomies, and is not recommended due to limited impact with major costs. Trial registration: NCT03208621. This trial was registered prospectively on 30-06-2017.</p

¹⁸F-Fludeoxyglucose-Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography and Laparoscopy for Staging of Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer:A Multicenter Prospective Dutch Cohort Study (PLASTIC)

Importance: The optimal staging for gastric cancer remains a matter of debate. Objective: To evaluate the value of 18F-fludeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography with computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) and staging laparoscopy (SL) in addition to initial staging by means of gastroscopy and CT in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter prospective, observational cohort study included 394 patients with locally advanced, clinically curable gastric adenocarcinoma (≥cT3 and/or N+, M0 category based on CT) between August 1, 2017, and February 1, 2020. Exposures: All patients underwent an FDG-PET/CT and/or SL in addition to initial staging. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the number of patients in whom the intent of treatment changed based on the results of these 2 investigations. Secondary outcomes included diagnostic performance, number of incidental findings on FDG-PET/CT, morbidity and mortality after SL, and diagnostic delay. Results: Of the 394 patients included, 256 (65%) were men and mean (SD) age was 67.6 (10.7) years. A total of 382 patients underwent FDG-PET/CT and 357 underwent SL. Treatment intent changed from curative to palliative in 65 patients (16%) based on the additional FDG-PET/CT and SL findings. FDG-PET/CT detected distant metastases in 12 patients (3%), and SL detected peritoneal or locally nonresectable disease in 73 patients (19%), with an overlap of 7 patients (2%). FDG-PET/CT had a sensitivity of 33% (95% CI, 17%-53%) and specificity of 97% (95% CI, 94%-99%) in detecting distant metastases. Secondary findings on FDG/PET were found in 83 of 382 patients (22%), which led to additional examinations in 65 of 394 patients (16%). Staging laparoscopy resulted in a complication requiring reintervention in 3 patients (0.8%) without postoperative mortality. The mean (SD) diagnostic delay was 19 (14) days. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest an apparently limited additional value of FDG-PET/CT; however, SL added considerably to the staging process of locally advanced gastric cancer by detection of peritoneal and nonresectable disease. Therefore, it may be useful to include SL in guidelines for staging advanced gastric cancer, but not FDG-PET/CT

Description of the Scenario Machine

We present here an updated description of the "Scenario Machine" code. This tool is used to carry out a population synthesis of binary stars. Previous version of the description can be found at http://xray.sai.msu.ru/~mystery//articles/review/contents.htmlComment: 32 pages, 3 figures. Corrected typo