A Hierarchical Bayesian Trust Model based on Reputation and Group Behaviour

In many systems, agents must rely on their peers to achieve their goals. However, when trusted to perform an action, an agent may betray that trust by not behaving as required. Agents must therefore estimate the behaviour of their peers, so that they may identify reliable interaction partners. To this end, we present a Bayesian trust model (HABIT) for assessing trust based on direct experience and (potentially unreliable) reputation. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based on principled statistical techniques; can be used with any representation of behaviour; and can assess trust based on observed similarities between groups of agents. In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of the model and present experimental results in which HABIT was shown to be up to twice as accurate at predicting trustee performance as an existing state-of-the-art trust model

Fetal liver blood flow distribution: role in human developmental strategy to prioritize fat deposition versus brain development

Among primates, human neonates have the largest brains but also the highest proportion of body fat. If placental nutrient supply is limited, the fetus faces a dilemma: should resources be allocated to brain growth, or to fat deposition for use as a potential postnatal energy reserve? We hypothesised that resolving this dilemma operates at the level of umbilical blood distribution entering the fetal liver. In 381 uncomplicated pregnancies in third trimester, we measured blood flow perfusing the fetal liver, or bypassing it via the ductus venosus to supply the brain and heart using ultrasound techniques. Across the range of fetal growth and independent of the mother's adiposity and parity, greater liver blood flow was associated with greater offspring fat mass measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, both in the infant at birth (r = 0.43, P<0.001) and at age 4 years (r = 0.16, P = 0.02). In contrast, smaller placentas less able to meet fetal demand for essential nutrients were associated with a brain-sparing flow pattern (r = 0.17, p = 0.02). This flow pattern was also associated with a higher degree of shunting through ductus venosus (P = 0.04). We propose that humans evolved a developmental strategy to prioritize nutrient allocation for prenatal fat deposition when the supply of conditionally essential nutrients requiring hepatic inter-conversion is limited, switching resource allocation to favour the brain if the supply of essential nutrients is limited. Facilitated placental transfer mechanisms for glucose and other nutrients evolved in environments less affluent than those now prevalent in developed populations, and we propose that in circumstances of maternal adiposity and nutrient excess these mechanisms now also lead to prenatal fat deposition. Prenatal developmental influences play important roles in the human propensity to deposit fa

Faecal Microbiota Transplantation plus selected use of antibiotics for severe-complicated Clostridium difficile infection: description of a protocol with high success rate

Background Severe and severe/complicated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) can result in ICU admission, sepsis, toxic megacolon and death. In this setting, colectomy is the standard of care but it is associated with a 50% mortality. Aim To evaluate safety and efficacy of a sequential faecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) and antibiotic protocol in severe and severe/complicated CDI patients who are at high risk for colectomy. Methods All patients with severe and severe/complicated CDI refractory to oral vancomycin ± rectal vancomycin and intravenous metronidazole therapy were offered FMT. Treatment consisted of sequential FMTs via colonoscopy with the need for repeat FMT and continued vancomycin guided by clinical response and pseudomembranes at colonoscopy. Results A total of 29 patients underwent FMT between July 2013 and August 2014. The overall treatment response of endoscopic sequential FMT was 93% (27/29), with 100% (10/10) for severe CDI and 89% (17/19) for severe/complicated CDI. A single FMT was performed in 62%, two FMTs were performed in 31% and three FMTs in 7% of patients. The use of non-CDI antibiotics predicted repeat FMT (odds ratio = 17.5). The 30-day all-cause mortality after FMT was 7%, and the cumulative 3-month survival was 76%. Of the two patients who died within 30 days, one underwent colectomy and succumbed to sepsis; the other died from septic shock related to CDI. Conclusion The success of a treatment protocol for severe and severe/complicated involving faecal microbiota transplantation and continued vancomycin in selected patients was high, and it warrants further evaluation

What makes you not a Buddhist? : a preliminary mapping of values

This study sets out to establish which Buddhist values contrasted with or were shared by adolescents from a non-Buddhist population. A survey of attitude toward a variety of Buddhist values was fielded in a sample of 352 non-Buddhist schoolchildren aged between 13 and 15 in London. Buddhist values where attitudes were least positive concerned the worth of being a monk/nun or meditating, offering candles & incense on the Buddhist shrine, friendship on Sangha Day, avoiding drinking alcohol, seeing the world as empty or impermanent and Nirvana as the ultimate peace. Buddhist values most closely shared by non-Buddhists concerned the Law of Karma, calming the mind, respecting those deserving of respect, subjectivity of happiness, welfare work, looking after parents in old age and compassion to cuddly animals. Further significant differences of attitude toward Buddhism were found in partial correlations with the independent variables of sex, age and religious affiliation. Correlation patterns paralleled those previously described in theistic religions. Findings are applied to spiritual, moral, social and cultural development and for the teaching of religious to pupils of no faith adherence. The study recommends that quantitative psychometrics employed to conceptualize Buddhist values by discriminant validity in this study could be extended usefully to other aspects of the study of Buddhism, particularly in quest of validity in the conceptualization of Buddhist identity within specifically Buddhist populations

Effectiveness of moving on: an Australian designed generic self-management program for people with a chronic illness

Background: This paper presents the evaluation of “Moving On”, a generic self-management program for people with a chronic illness developed by Arthritis NSW. The program aims to help participants identify their need for behavior change and acquire the knowledge and skills to implement changes that promote their health and quality of life. Method: A prospective pragmatic randomised controlled trial involving two group programs in community settings: the intervention program (Moving On) and a control program (light physical activity). Participants were recruited by primary health care providers across the north-west region of metropolitan Sydney, Australia between June 2009 and October 2010. Patient outcomes were self-reported via pre- and post-program surveys completed at the time of enrolment and sixteen weeks after program commencement. Primary outcomes were change in self-efficacy (Self-efficacy for Managing Chronic Disease 6-Item Scale), self-management knowledge and behaviour and perceived health status (Self-Rated Health Scale and the Health Distress Scale). Results: A total of 388 patient referrals were received, of whom 250 (64.4%) enrolled in the study. Three patients withdrew prior to allocation. 25 block randomisations were performed by a statistician external to the research team: 123 patients were allocated to the intervention program and 124 were allocated to the control program. 97 (78.9%) of the intervention participants commenced their program. The overall attrition rate of 40.5% included withdrawals from the study and both programs. 24.4% of participants withdrew from the intervention program but not the study and 22.6% withdrew from the control program but not the study. A total of 62 patients completed the intervention program and follow-up evaluation survey and 77 patients completed the control program and follow- up evaluation survey. At 16 weeks follow-up there was no significant difference between intervention and control groups in self-efficacy; however, there was an increase in self-efficacy from baseline to follow-up for the intervention participants (t=−1.948, p=0.028). There were no significant differences in self-rated health or health distress scores between groups at follow-up, with both groups reporting a significant decrease in health distress scores. There was no significant difference between or within groups in self-management knowledge and stage of change of behaviours at follow-up. Intervention group attenders had significantly higher physical activity (t=−4.053, p=0.000) and nutrition scores (t=2.315, p= 0.01) at follow-up; however, these did not remain significant after adjustment for covariates. At follow-up, significantly more participants in the control group (20.8%) indicated that they did not have a self-management plan compared to those in the intervention group (8.8%) (X2=4.671, p=0.031). There were no significant changes in other self-management knowledge areas and behaviours after adjusting for covariates at follow-up. Conclusions: The study produced mixed findings. Differences between groups as allocated were diluted by the high proportion of patients not completing the program. Further monitoring and evaluation are needed of the impact and cost effectiveness of the program. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN1260900029821

A direct physical interaction between Nanog and Sox2 regulates embryonic stem cell self-renewal

Embryonic stem (ES) cell self-renewal efficiency is determined by the Nanog protein level. However, the protein partners of Nanog that function to direct self-renewal are unclear. Here, we identify a Nanog interactome of over 130 proteins including transcription factors, chromatin modifying complexes, phosphorylation and ubiquitination enzymes, basal transcriptional machinery members, and RNA processing factors. Sox2 was identified as a robust interacting partner of Nanog. The purified Nanog–Sox2 complex identified a DNA recognition sequence present in multiple overlapping Nanog/Sox2 ChIP-Seq data sets. The Nanog tryptophan repeat region is necessary and sufficient for interaction with Sox2, with tryptophan residues required. In Sox2, tyrosine to alanine mutations within a triple-repeat motif (S X T/S Y) abrogates the Nanog–Sox2 interaction, alters expression of genes associated with the Nanog-Sox2 cognate sequence, and reduces the ability of Sox2 to rescue ES cell differentiation induced by endogenous Sox2 deletion. Substitution of the tyrosines with phenylalanine rescues both the Sox2–Nanog interaction and efficient self-renewal. These results suggest that aromatic stacking of Nanog tryptophans and Sox2 tyrosines mediates an interaction central to ES cell self-renewal

Infectious Disease Modeling of Social Contagion in Networks

Many behavioral phenomena have been found to spread interpersonally through social networks, in a manner similar to infectious diseases. An important difference between social contagion and traditional infectious diseases, however, is that behavioral phenomena can be acquired by non-social mechanisms as well as through social transmission. We introduce a novel theoretical framework for studying these phenomena (the SISa model) by adapting a classic disease model to include the possibility for ‘automatic’ (or ‘spontaneous’) non-social infection. We provide an example of the use of this framework by examining the spread of obesity in the Framingham Heart Study Network. The interaction assumptions of the model are validated using longitudinal network transmission data. We find that the current rate of becoming obese is 2 per year and increases by 0.5 percentage points for each obese social contact. The rate of recovering from obesity is 4 per year, and does not depend on the number of non-obese contacts. The model predicts a long-term obesity prevalence of approximately 42, and can be used to evaluate the effect of different interventions on steady-state obesity. Model predictions quantitatively reproduce the actual historical time course for the prevalence of obesity. We find that since the 1970s, the rate of recovery from obesity has remained relatively constant, while the rates of both spontaneous infection and transmission have steadily increased over time. This suggests that the obesity epidemic may be driven by increasing rates of becoming obese, both spontaneously and transmissively, rather than by decreasing rates of losing weight. A key feature of the SISa model is its ability to characterize the relative importance of social transmission by quantitatively comparing rates of spontaneous versus contagious infection. It provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviors, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant R01GM078986)National Science Foundation (U.S.)Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationTempleton FoundationNational Institute on Aging (grant P01 AG031093)Framingham Heart Study (contract number N01-HC-25195

Establishing a large prospective clinical cohort in people with head and neck cancer as a biomedical resource:head and neck 5000

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer is an important cause of ill health. Survival appears to be improving but the reasons for this are unclear. They could include evolving aetiology, modifications in care, improvements in treatment or changes in lifestyle behaviour. Observational studies are required to explore survival trends and identify outcome predictors.METHODS: We are identifying people with a new diagnosis of head and neck cancer. We obtain consent that includes agreement to collect longitudinal data, store samples and record linkage. Prior to treatment we give participants three questionnaires on health and lifestyle, quality of life and sexual history. We collect blood and saliva samples, complete a clinical data capture form and request a formalin fixed tissue sample. At four and twelve months we complete further data capture forms and send participants further quality of life questionnaires.DISCUSSION: This large clinical cohort of people with head and neck cancer brings together clinical data, patient-reported outcomes and biological samples in a single co-ordinated resource for translational and prognostic research.</p