Globalisation and insecurity

We construct a simple model of the e¤ect of increased interna-tional openness on risk bearing in an environment in which the onlyrisk-sharing institutions are self-enforcing agreements. We showhow increased openness can weaken long-term relationships, andhence risk sharing, by increasing the e¤ectiveness of the market,much as some critics of globalization have argued. However, theharm thereby done is tempered by the fact that in order to havesuch a negative indirect e¤ect, openness must have a direct e¤ectthat reduces risk. It is shown that on balance, globalization reducesrisk and raises welfare for those in small countries, but increases riskand reduces welfare for those in large countries. We construct a simple model of the e¤ect of increased interna-tional openness on risk bearing in an environment in which the onlyrisk-sharing institutions are self-enforcing agreements. We showhow increased openness can weaken long-term relationships, andhence risk sharing, by increasing the e¤ectiveness of the market,much as some critics of globalization have argued. However, theharm thereby done is tempered by the fact that in order to havesuch a negative indirect e¤ect, openness must have a direct e¤ectthat reduces risk. It is shown that on balance, globalization reducesrisk and raises welfare for those in small countries, but increases riskand reduces welfare for those in large countries

Predator-prey cycles from resonant amplification of demographic stochasticity

In this paper we present the simplest individual level model of predator-prey dynamics and show, via direct calculation, that it exhibits cycling behavior. The deterministic analogue of our model, recovered when the number of individuals is infinitely large, is the Volterra system (with density-dependent prey reproduction) which is well-known to fail to predict cycles. This difference in behavior can be traced to a resonant amplification of demographic fluctuations which disappears only when the number of individuals is strictly infinite. Our results indicate that additional biological mechanisms, such as predator satiation, may not be necessary to explain observed predator-prey cycles in real (finite) populations.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Introduction

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Community structure in directed networks

We consider the problem of finding communities or modules in directed networks. The most common approach to this problem in the previous literature has been simply to ignore edge direction and apply methods developed for community discovery in undirected networks, but this approach discards potentially useful information contained in the edge directions. Here we show how the widely used benefit function known as modularity can be generalized in a principled fashion to incorporate the information contained in edge directions. This in turn allows us to find communities by maximizing the modularity over possible divisions of a network, which we do using an algorithm based on the eigenvectors of the corresponding modularity matrix. This method is shown to give demonstrably better results than previous methods on a variety of test networks, both real and computer-generated.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Clustering and preferential attachment in growing networks

We study empirically the time evolution of scientific collaboration networks in physics and biology. In these networks, two scientists are considered connected if they have coauthored one or more papers together. We show that the probability of scientists collaborating increases with the number of other collaborators they have in common, and that the probability of a particular scientist acquiring new collaborators increases with the number of his or her past collaborators. These results provide experimental evidence in favor of previously conjectured mechanisms for clustering and power-law degree distributions in networks.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Observations of stratospheric temperature changes coincident with the recent Antarctic ozone depletions

A high degree of correlation between the recent decline in Antarctic total ozone and cooling of the stratosphere during Austral spring has been noted in several recent studies (e.g., Sekiguchi, 1986; Angel, 1986). This study analyzes the observed temperature trends in detail, focusing on the spatial and temporal aspects of the observed cooling. Ozone losses and stratospheric cooling can be correlated for several reasons: (1) ozone losses (from an unspecified cause) will directly reduce temperatures due to decreased solar ultraviolet absorption (Shine, 1986), and/or (2) changes in both ozone and temperature structure due to modification of stratospheric circulation patterns (Mahlman and Fels, 1986). In order to scrutinize various ozone depletion scenarios, detailed information on the observed temperature changes is necessary; the goal is to provide such data. The data used are National Meteorological Center (NMC) Climate Analysis Center (CAC) derived temperatures, covering 1000 to 1 mb (0 to 48 km), for the period 1979 to 1987. Discussions on data origin and quality (assessed by extensive comparisons with radiosonde observations), along with other details of these observations, can be found in Newman and Randel (1988)

Community Structure in the United States House of Representatives

We investigate the networks of committee and subcommittee assignments in the United States House of Representatives from the 101st--108th Congresses, with the committees connected by ``interlocks'' or common membership. We examine the community structure in these networks using several methods, revealing strong links between certain committees as well as an intrinsic hierarchical structure in the House as a whole. We identify structural changes, including additional hierarchical levels and higher modularity, resulting from the 1994 election, in which the Republican party earned majority status in the House for the first time in more than forty years. We also combine our network approach with analysis of roll call votes using singular value decomposition to uncover correlations between the political and organizational structure of House committees.Comment: 44 pages, 13 figures (some with multiple parts and most in color), 9 tables, to appear in Physica A; new figures and revised discussion (including extra introductory material) for this versio

Characterizing the structure of small-world networks

We give exact relations which are valid for small-world networks (SWN's) with a general `degree distribution', i.e the distribution of nearest-neighbor connections. For the original SWN model, we illustrate how these exact relations can be used to obtain approximations for the corresponding basic probability distribution. In the limit of large system sizes and small disorder, we use numerical studies to obtain a functional fit for this distribution. Finally, we obtain the scaling properties for the mean-square displacement of a random walker, which are determined by the scaling behavior of the underlying SWN