Towards an improved understanding and management of uncertainty in science investigations of environment policy options

Water quality issues due to nutrient contamination by intensive agriculture is a good example of a complex problem characterised by conflict and uncertainty. A collaborative approach to setting nutrient limits in catchments in Canterbury, New Zealand has been developed and implemented over the last 6 years. Policy and other non regulatory measures are developed by the regulatory body in collaboration with community stakeholders in a science-informed process. A technical group rely on modelling to provide estimates on the socio-economic, cultural and environmental outcomes under stakeholder specified scenarios. These modelled estimates inform the collaborative nutrient limit-setting process. There is considerable uncertainty in this scientific knowledge that the decision-makers need to be aware of. However, the nutrient limit setting processes are time and resource constrained precluding a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. This paper presents some ideas for explicitly and transparently identifying and communicating the key uncertainties within a timeframe that fits with the collaborative process. A five-stage framework for understanding, communicating and managing uncertainty is presented, and tested in a retrospective analysis of a recent collaborative process. Fuzzy indicator/outcome graphs, systems diagrams, outcome likelihood matrices and simple uncertainty estimates using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) tool are all used in the framework

Food Habits, Growth, and Cover Types Used by Northern Wisconsin Black Bears

Black bear (Ursus americanus) food habits were determined by examining 630 scats collected during May through August 1976 and 1977. Seasonally important food items were grasses (Gramineae), sweet cicely (Osmorhiza Claytonii), and aspen (Populus tremuloides) in spring; gooseberries (Ribes spp.), blueberries (Vaccinium spp.), and ants (Formicidae) in summer; blackcherries (Prunus serotina), wild sarsaparilla (Aralia nudicaulis), and domestic oats (Avena sativa) in late summer. Green vegetation comprised the bulk of the diet. The lack of meat in the diet was a reflection of its availability. Use of cover types was related to food availability. No clear cover type preterence was observed. However, bears were captured or observed most often in areas with a diversity of forest cover types. Short term weight gains were similar for both sexes (0.49 kg/day for females and 0.50 kg/day for males). Mature males (3.5 years and older) usually were larger than females of the same age

Improving Understanding and Management of Uncertainty in Science-Informed Collaborative Policy Processes

Decision making in natural resource management must deal with uncertainty. This can be very challenging when there is high uncertainty in the system being managed, particularly when participatory processes are used that potentially involve a wide range of stakeholders with competing interests and values, and where technical resources are limited. In the first phase of the research, a formal review of how uncertainty was managed in a collaborative and community-centred policy process to set water quality and water quantity limits in the Selwyn Waihora catchment in New Zealand. Three recommendations for improvement were identified: (i) increase the transparency of the nature and level of uncertainty considered, (ii) expand the types or sources of uncertainty considered, and (iii) apply a systemic and systematic approach to identifying and prioritising uncertainties. In the second phase, this led to the development of a five-stage conceptual framework incorporating a number of steps and tools designed to facilitate understanding, communicating, and managing uncertainty. The framework was tested and refined using the data from the original Selwyn Waihora policy process. This paper describes our framework, which was found to support understanding, managing, and communicating uncertainty in collaborative processes tasked with developing new environmental policy, despite time and resource constraints.</jats:p

Improving Understanding and Management of Uncertainty in Science-Informed Collaborative Policy Processes

Decision making in natural resource management must deal with uncertainty. This can be very challenging when there is high uncertainty in the system being managed, particularly when participatory processes are used that potentially involve a wide range of stakeholders with competing interests and values, and where technical resources are limited. In the first phase of the research, a formal review of how uncertainty was managed in a collaborative and community-centred policy process to set water quality and water quantity limits in the Selwyn Waihora catchment in New Zealand. Three recommendations for improvement were identified: (i) increase the transparency of the nature and level of uncertainty considered, (ii) expand the types or sources of uncertainty considered, and (iii) apply a systemic and systematic approach to identifying and prioritising uncertainties. In the second phase, this led to the development of a five-stage conceptual framework incorporating a number of steps and tools designed to facilitate understanding, communicating, and managing uncertainty. The framework was tested and refined using the data from the original Selwyn Waihora policy process. This paper describes our framework, which was found to support understanding, managing, and communicating uncertainty in collaborative processes tasked with developing new environmental policy, despite time and resource constraints