The Method of Forecasting of the Indicators for Drug Reimbursement to Patients with Cardiovascular Diseases in Ukraine

The aim of the study is to develop a method for forecasting the indicators for drug reimbursement to patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Ukraine within the framework of the government program “Available medicines”.Materials and methods: materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and medical records of patients with CVD, who were prescribed with medicines according to the government program, were used in the study.Results: according to the method proposed for forecasting the volume of drug reimbursement to patients with CVD under the government program it has been found that Enalapril has the highest indicator – 10916.4 USD thousand in 2019 and 10736.8 USD thousand in 2020. Clopidogrel takes the second position – 12108.13 USD thousand and 11908.24 USD thousand, while Amlodipine occupies the third position – 9105.60 USD thousand and 8955.28 USD thousand.Among the medicines not included in the government program, but prescribed rather frequently the largest forecasting amount required for reimbursement (in case of inclusion in the program) is 18910.55 USD thousand in 2019 and 18598.36 USD thousand in 2020 for Magnicor, and the least amount is 444.55 USD thousand and 437.22 USD thousand for Acetylsalicylic acid, respectively.Conclusions. The government program to provide patients with effective and affordable medicines has a significant impact on reforming the healthcare system of Ukraine. The study conducted can be used to expand the government program in the process of formation and distribution of budget funds