Integrating latent classes in the Bayesian shared parameter joint model of longitudinal and survival outcomes

Cystic fibrosis is a chronic lung disease requiring frequent lung-function monitoring to track acute respiratory events (pulmonary exacerbations). The association between lung-function trajectory and time-to-first exacerbation can be characterized using joint longitudinal-survival modeling. Joint models specified through the shared parameter framework quantify the strength of association between such outcomes but do not incorporate latent sub-populations reflective of heterogeneous disease progression. Conversely, latent class joint models explicitly postulate the existence of sub-populations but do not directly quantify the strength of association. Furthermore, choosing the optimal number of classes using established metrics like deviance information criterion is computationally intensive in complex models. To overcome these limitations, we integrate latent classes in the shared parameter joint model through a fully Bayesian approach. To choose the optimal number of classes, we construct a mixture model assuming more latent classes than present in the data, thereby asymptotically “emptying” superfluous latent classes, provided the Dirichlet prior on class proportions is sufficiently uninformative. Model properties are evaluated in simulation studies. Application to data from the US Cystic Fibrosis Registry supports the existence of three sub-populations corresponding to lung-function trajectories with high initial forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), rapid FEV1 decline, and low but steady FEV1 progression. The association between FEV1 and hazard of exacerbation was negative in each class, but magnitude varied

Prevalence of permanent neonatal hearing impairment: systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis

Objective: To investigate the variance in reported prevalence rates of permanent neonatal hearing impairment (HI) worldwide. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed on reported prevalence rates of sensorineural and permanent conductive or mixed HI worse than 40 dB in neonates, detected as a result of a screening programme or audiometric study. Study sample: For meta-analysis, 35 articles were selected, 25 from high-income countries and 10 from middle-income countries according to the world bank classification system. Results: The prevalence rate of permanent uni- and bilateral HI worse than 40 dB in neonates varied from 1 to 6 per 1000, the overall prevalence was 2.21 per 1000 [1.71, 2.8]. In NICU populations the prevalence rate was higher with a larger fraction of bilateral cases. Although not significant, prevalence rates were slightly higher in Asia compared to Europe and the number of infants lost to follow-up appeared higher in countries with lower gross national income. Conclusion: Substantial variations exist in prevalence rates of neonatal permanent HI across countries and regions. There is a strong need for more data from low-income countries to identify demographic factors that account for this variability in reported prevalence rates. Reporting these data in a uniform way is advocated

Diagnosis of bronchiectasis and airway wall thickening in children with cystic fibrosis: Objective airway-artery quantification

Objectives: To quantify airway and artery (AA)-dimensions in cystic fibrosis (CF) and control patients for objective CT diagnosis of bronchiectasis and airway wall thickness (AWT). Methods: Spirometer-guided inspiratory and expiratory CTs of 11 CF and 12 control patients were collected retrospectively. Airway pathways were annotated semi-automatically to reconstruct three-dimensional bronchial trees. All visible AA-pairs were measured perpendicular to the airway axis. Inner, outer and AWT (outer−inner) diameter were divided by the adjacent artery diameter to compute AinA-, AoutA- and AWTA-ratios. AA-ratios were predicted using mixed-effects models including disease status, lung volume, gender, height and age as covariates. Results: Demographics did not differ significantly between cohorts. Mean AA-pairs CF: 299 inspiratory; 82 expiratory. Controls: 131 inspiratory; 58 expiratory. All ratios were significantly larger in inspiratory compared to expiratory CTs for both groups (p<0.001). AoutA- and AWTA-ratios were larger in CF than in controls, independent of lung volume (p<0.01). Difference of AoutA- and AWTA-ratios between patients with CF and controls increased significantly for every following airway generation (p<0.001). Conclusion: Diagnosis of bronchiectasis is highly dependent on lung volume and more reliably diagnosed using outer airway diameter. Difference in bronchiectasis and AWT severity between the two cohorts increased with each airway generation. Key points: • More peripheral airways are visible in CF patients compared to controls.• Structural lung changes in CF patients are greater with each airway generation.• Number of airways visualized on CT could quantify CF lung disease.• For objective airway disease quantification on CT, lung volume standardization is required

Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide, and Dexamethasone As Second-line Therapy for Lenalidomide-refractory Multiple Myeloma

This phase 2 trial investigated reinduction with carfilzomib, pomalidomide, and dexamethasone (KPd) and continuous pomalidomide/dexamethasone in patients at first progression during lenalidomide maintenance. The second objective was to evaluate high-dose melphalan with autologous stem cell transplantation (HDM/ASCT) at first progression. Patients were eligible who had progressive disease according to International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) criteria. Treatment consisted of 8 cycles carfilzomib (20/36 mg/m2), pomalidomide (4 mg) and dexamethasone. Patients without prior transplant received HDM/ASCT. Pomalidomide 4 mg w/o dexamethasone was given until progression. One hundred twelve patients were registered of whom 86 (77%) completed 8 cycles of KPd. Thirty-five (85%) eligible patients received HDM/ASCT. The median time to discontinuation of pomalidomide w/o dexamethasone was 17 months. Best response was 37% ≥ complete response, 75% ≥ very good partial response, 92% ≥ partial response, respectively. At a follow-up of 40 months median PFS was 26 and 32 months for patients who received KPd plus HDM/ASCT and 17 months for patients on KPd (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-1.00, P = 0.051). PFS was better after longer duration of prior lenalidomide (HR 3.56, 95% CI 1.42-8.96, P = 0.035). Median overall survival (OS) was 67 months. KPd-emerging grade 3 and 4 adverse events included hematologic (41%), cardiovascular (6%), respiratory (3%), infections (17%), and neuropathy (2%). KPd followed by continuous pomalidomide is an effective and safe triple drug regimen in second-line for patients previously exposed to bortezomib and/or refractory to lenalidomide

Predicting hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors using transition models and mixed effects models

Background: To optimize the planning of blood donations but also to continue motivating the volunteers it is important to streamline the practical organization of the timing of donations. While donors are asked to return for donation after a suitable period, still a relevant proportion of blood donors is deferred from donation each year due to a too low hemoglobin level. Rejection of donation may demotivate the candidate donor and implies an inefficient planning of the donation process. Hence, it is important to predict the future hemoglobin level to improve the planning of donors' visits to the blood bank. Methods. The development of the hemoglobin prediction rule is based on longitudinal (panel) data from blood donations collected by Sanquin (the only blood product collecting and supplying organization in the Netherlands). We explored and contrasted two popular statistical models, i.e. the transition (autoregressive) model and the mixed effects model as plausible models to account for the dependence among subsequent hemoglobin levels within a donor. Results: The predictors of the future hemoglobin level are age, season, hemoglobin levels at the previous visits, and a binary variable indicating whether a donation was made at the previous visit. Based on cross-validation, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for male donors are 0.83 and 0.81 for the transition model and the mixed effects model, respectively; for female donors we obtained AUC values of 0.73 and 0.72 for the transition model and the mixed effects model, respectively. Conclusion: We showed that the transition models and the mixed effects models provide a much better prediction compared to a multiple linear regression model. In general, the transition model provides a somewhat better prediction than the mixed effects model, especially at high visit numbers. In addition, the transition model offers a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity when varying the cut-off values for eligibility in predicted values. Hence transition models make the prediction of hemoglobin level more precise and may lead to less deferral from donation in the future

Quantitative in vivo CT arthrography of the human osteoarthritic knee to estimate cartilage sulphated glycosaminoglycan content: Correlation with ex-vivo reference standards

Objective: Recently, computed tomography arthrography (CTa) was introduced as quantitative imaging biomarker to estimate cartilage sulphated glycosaminoglycan (sGAG) content in human cadaveric knees. Our aim was to assess the correlation between in vivo CTa in human osteoarthritis (OA) knees and ex vivo reference standards for sGAG and collagen content. Design: In this prospective observational study 11 knee OA patients underwent CTa before total knee replacement (TKR). Cartilage X-ray attenuation was determined in six cartilage regions. Femoral and tibial cartilage specimens harvested during TKR were re-scanned using equilibrium partitioning of an ionic contrast agent with micro-CT (EPIC-μCT), which served as reference standard for sGAG. Next, cartilage sGAG and collagen content were determined using dimethylmethylene blue (DMMB) and hydroxyproline assays. The correlation between CTa X-ray attenuation, EPIC-μCT X-ray attenuation, sGAG content and collagen content was assessed. Results: CTa X-ray attenuation correlated well with EPIC-μCT (r = 0.76, 95% credibility interval (95%CI) 0.64 to 0.85). CTa correlated moderately with the DMMB assay (sGAG content) (r = -0.66, 95%CI -0.87 to -0.49) and to lesser extent with the hydroxyproline assay (collagen content) (r = -0.56, 95%CI -0.70 to -0.36). Conclusions: Outcomes of in vivo CTa in human OA knees correlate well with sGAG content. Outcomes of CTa also slightly correlate with cartilage collagen content. Since outcomes of CTa are mainly sGAG dependent and despite the fact that further validation using hyaline cartilage of other joints with different biochemical composition should be conducted, CTa may be suitable as quantitative imaging biomarker to estimate cartilage sGAG content in future clinical OA research

The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The optimal duration of anticoagulation in patients with active cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Current clinical guidelines advocate anticoagulant therapy for 3–6 months and to continue anticoagulant therapy for as long as the cancer is active. However, an adequate systematic review on the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy has not been performed. Methods: For this systemic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, from database inception to February 16, 2023, for studies on anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer and the recurrence of venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of this therapy. We included randomised controlled trials and cohort studies published in English that reported on patients who met the following: cancer and a first VTE, completed at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, were followed after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy, and with symptomatic recurrent VTE as an outcome during follow-up. Study-level data were requested from study authors. The primary outcome was the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years for the pooled studies at different time intervals after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. We also calculated the cumulative VTE recurrence rate at different time intervals. Forest plots were mapped and the results were summarized by the median and 95% credible interval (CIs). This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021249060. Findings: Of 3856 studies identified in our search, 33 studies were identified for inclusion. After requesting study-level data, 14 studies involving 1922 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis were included. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy was 14.6 events (95% credible interval 6.5–22.8) in the first three months, decreasing to 1.1 events (95% CI 0.3–2.1) in year 2–3, and 2.2 events (95% CI 0.0–4.4) in year 3–5 after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. The cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.3% (95% CI 15.6–39.6%) at 1 year; 31.1% (95% CI 16.5–43.8%) at 2 years; 31.9% (95% CI 16.8–45.0%) at 3 years; and 35.0% (95% CI 16.8–47.4%) at 5 years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. Interpretation: This meta-analysis demonstrates a high rate of recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis. Our results support the current clinical guidelines to continue anticoagulant therapy in patients with active cancer. Funding: Erasmus MC.</p

The risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The optimal duration of anticoagulation in patients with active cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. Current clinical guidelines advocate anticoagulant therapy for 3–6 months and to continue anticoagulant therapy for as long as the cancer is active. However, an adequate systematic review on the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy has not been performed. Methods: For this systemic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar, from database inception to February 16, 2023, for studies on anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer and the recurrence of venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of this therapy. We included randomised controlled trials and cohort studies published in English that reported on patients who met the following: cancer and a first VTE, completed at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, were followed after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy, and with symptomatic recurrent VTE as an outcome during follow-up. Study-level data were requested from study authors. The primary outcome was the rate of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years for the pooled studies at different time intervals after discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. We also calculated the cumulative VTE recurrence rate at different time intervals. Forest plots were mapped and the results were summarized by the median and 95% credible interval (CIs). This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021249060. Findings: Of 3856 studies identified in our search, 33 studies were identified for inclusion. After requesting study-level data, 14 studies involving 1922 patients with cancer-associated thrombosis were included. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person-years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy was 14.6 events (95% credible interval 6.5–22.8) in the first three months, decreasing to 1.1 events (95% CI 0.3–2.1) in year 2–3, and 2.2 events (95% CI 0.0–4.4) in year 3–5 after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. The cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.3% (95% CI 15.6–39.6%) at 1 year; 31.1% (95% CI 16.5–43.8%) at 2 years; 31.9% (95% CI 16.8–45.0%) at 3 years; and 35.0% (95% CI 16.8–47.4%) at 5 years after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. Interpretation: This meta-analysis demonstrates a high rate of recurrent VTE over time after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis. Our results support the current clinical guidelines to continue anticoagulant therapy in patients with active cancer. Funding: Erasmus MC.</p

Quality of life gains in frail and intermediate-fit patients with multiple Myeloma:Findings from the prospective HOVON123 clinical trial

Background: Frailty in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients is associated with treatment-related toxicity, which negatively affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Currently, data on changes in HRQoL of frail and intermediate-fit MM patients during active treatment and post-treatment follow-up are absent. Methods: The HOVON123 study (NTR4244) was a phase II trial in which NDMM patients ≥ 75 years were treated with nine dose-adjusted cycles of Melphalan-Prednisone-Bortezomib (MPV). Two HRQoL instruments (EORTC QLQ-C30 and -MY20) were obtained before start of treatment, after 3 and 9 months of treatment and 6 and 12 months after treatment for patients who did not yet start second-line treatment. HRQoL changes and/or differences in frail and intermediate-fit patients (IMWG frailty score) were reported only when both statistically significant (p &lt; 0.005) and clinically relevant (&gt;MID). Results: 137 frail and 71 intermediate-fit patients were included in the analysis. Compliance was high and comparable in both groups. At baseline, frail patients reported lower global health status, lower physical functioning scores and more fatigue and pain compared to intermediate-fit patients. Both groups improved in global health status and future perspective; polyneuropathy complaints worsened over time. Frail patients improved over time in physical functioning, fatigue and pain. Improvement in global health status occurred earlier than in intermediate-fit patients. Conclusion: HRQoL improved during anti-myeloma treatment in both intermediate-fit and frail MM patients. In frail patients, improvement occurred faster and, in more domains, which was retained during follow-up. This implies that physicians should not withhold safe and effective therapies from frail patients in fear of HRQoL deterioration.</p