The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method

Using weekly influenza surveillance data from the US CDC, Edward Goldstein and colleagues develop a statistical method to predict the sizes of epidemics caused by seasonal influenza strains. This method could inform decisions about the most appropriate vaccines or drugs needed early in the influenza season

From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil

The spread of dengue virus is a major public health problem. Though the burden of dengue has historically been concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, Brazil has become the country that reports the largest number of cases in the world. While prior to 2007 the disease affected mostly adults, during the 2007 epidemic the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases more than doubled, and over 53% of cases were in children under 15 years of age. In this paper, we propose that the conditions for the shift were being set gradually since the re-introduction of dengue in 1986 and that they represent the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity. Using data from an age stratified seroprevalence study conducted in Recife, we estimated the force of infection (a measure of transmission intensity) between 1986–2006 and used these estimates to simulate the accumulation of immunity since the re-emergence. As the length of time that dengue has circulated increases, adults have a lower probability of remaining susceptible to primary or secondary infection and thus, cases become on average younger. If in fact the shift represents the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity, similar shifts are likely to be observed in the rest of Brazil, the American continent and other regions where transmission emerges

Characteristics of outdoor falls among older people: A qualitative study

Background Falls are a major threat to older people’s health and wellbeing. Approximately half of falls occur in outdoor environments but little is known about the circumstances in which they occur. We conducted a qualitative study to explore older people’s experiences of outdoor falls to develop understanding of how they may be prevented. Methods We conducted nine focus groups across the UK (England, Wales, and Scotland). Our sample was from urban and rural settings and different environmental landscapes. Participants were aged 65+ and had at least one outdoor fall in the past year. We analysed the data using framework and content analyses. Results Forty-four adults aged 65 – 92 took part and reported their experience of 88 outdoor falls. Outdoor falls occurred in a variety of contexts, though reports suggested the following scenarios may have been more frequent: when crossing a road, in a familiar area, when bystanders were around, and with an unreported or unknown attribution. Most frequently, falls resulted in either minor or moderate injury, feeling embarrassed at the time of the fall, and anxiety about falling again. Ten falls resulted in fracture, but no strong pattern emerged in regard to the contexts of these falls. Anxiety about falling again appeared more prevalent among those that fell in urban settings and who made more visits into their neighbourhood in a typical week. Conclusions This exploratory study has highlighted several aspects of the outdoor environment that may represent risk factors for outdoor falls and associated fear of falling. Health professionals are recommended to consider outdoor environments as well as the home setting when working to prevent falls and increase mobility among older people

Raloxifene: Mechanism of Action, Effects on Bone Tissue, and Applicability in Clinical Traumatology Practice

Raloxifene, a member of the class of selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERM), reproduces the beneficial effects of estrogens on the skeletal systems, without the negative effects estrogens on breast and endometrium

Fasting and postprandial plasma ghrelin levels are decreased in patients with liver failure previous to liver transplantation

[Abstract] Anorexia is a problem of paramount importance in patients with advanced liver failure. Ghrelin has important actions on feeding and weight homeostasis. Concentrations of ghrelin are controversial in liver cirrhosis. Our aim was to study fasting ghrelin and their response to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in liver failure patients and normal subjects. Methods We included 16 patients with severe liver failure prior to liver transplantation. As a control group we included 10 age- and BMI-matched healthy subjects. After an overnight fast, 75 g of oral glucose were administered; glucose, insulin, and ghrelin were obtained at baseline and at times 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, respectively. Results Fasting ghrelin (median and range) were statistically significantly lower for patients compared to the controls, 527 (377–971) pg/ml vs. 643 (523–2163) pg/ml, P = 0.045, for patients and controls, respectively. The area under the curve for total ghrelin post-OGTT were lower in end-stage liver failure patients than in the control group, 58815 (44730–87420) pg/ml min vs. 76560 (56160–206385) pg/ml min, for patients and controls, respectively, P = 0.027. Conclusions Ghrelin levels are significantly decreased both fasting and post-OGTT in patients with liver failure candidates for transplantation. Decreased ghrelin levels could contribute to anorexia in patients with cirrhosis.Instituto de Salud Carlos III; PI051024Instituto de Salud Carlos III; PI070413Xunta de Galicia; PS07/12Xunta de Galicia; PGIDT05PXIC91605PNXunta de Galicia; INCITE08ENA916110E

Central defect type partial ACL injury model on goat knees: the effect of infrapatellar fat pad excision

BACKGROUND: The mid-substance central defect injury has been used to investigate the primary healing capacity of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in a goat model. The sagittal plane stability on this model has not been confirmed, and possible effects of fat pad excision on healing have not been evaluated. We hypothesize that excising the fat pad tissue results in poorer ligament healing as assessed histologically and decreased tensile strength of the healing ligament. We further hypothesize that the creation of a central defect does not affect sagittal plane knee stability. METHODS: A mid-substance central defect was created with a 4-mm arthroscopic punch in the ACLs of right knees of all the subjects through a medial mini-arthrotomy. Goats were assigned to groups based on whether the fat pad was preserved (group 1, n = 5) or excised completely (group 2, n = 5). The left knees served as controls in each goat. Histopathology of the defect area along with measurement of type I collagen in one goat from each group were performed at 10th week postoperatively. The remaining knees were evaluated biomechanically at the 12th week, by measuring anterior tibial translation (ATT) of the knee joints at 90° of flexion and testing tensile properties (ultimate tensile load (UTL), ultimate elongation (UE), stiffness (S), failure mode (FM)) of the femur-ACL-tibia complex. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Histopathology analysis revealed that the central defect area was fully filled macroscopically and microscopically. However, myxoid degeneration and fibrosis were observed in group 2 and increased collagen type I content was noted in group 2. There were no significant differences within and between groups in terms of ATT values (p = 0.715 and p = 0.149, respectively). There were no significance between or within groups in terms of ultimate tensile load and ultimate elongation; however, group 2 demonstrated greater stiffness than group 1 that was correlated with the fibrotic changes detected microscopically (p = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: The central defect type injury model was confirmed to be biomechanically stable in a goat model. Resection of the fat pad was noted to negatively affect defect healing and increase ligament stiffness in the central defect injury model

Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Modeling: A BME-SIR Approach

This paper is concerned with the modeling of infectious disease spread in a composite space-time domain under conditions of uncertainty. We focus on stochastic modeling that accounts for basic mechanisms of disease distribution and multi-sourced in situ uncertainties. Starting from the general formulation of population migration dynamics and the specification of transmission and recovery rates, the model studies the functional formulation of the evolution of the fractions of susceptible-infected-recovered individuals. The suggested approach is capable of: a) modeling population dynamics within and across localities, b) integrating the disease representation (i.e. susceptible-infected-recovered individuals) with observation time series at different geographical locations and other sources of information (e.g. hard and soft data, empirical relationships, secondary information), and c) generating predictions of disease spread and associated parameters in real time, while considering model and observation uncertainties. Key aspects of the proposed approach are illustrated by means of simulations (i.e. synthetic studies), and a real-world application using hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) data from China.J.M. Angulo and A.E. Madrid have been partially supported by grants MTM2009-13250 and MTM2012-32666 of SGPI, and P08-FQM-3834 of the Andalusian CICE, Spain. H-L Yu has been partially supported by a grant from National Science Council of Taiwan (NSC101-2628-E-002-017-MY3 and NSC102-2221-E-002-140-MY3). A. Kolovos was supported by SpaceTimeWorks, LLC. G. Christakos was supported by a Yongqian Chair Professorship (Zhejiang University, China)

In Vivo Generation of Neurotoxic Prion Protein: Role for Hsp70 in Accumulation of Misfolded Isoforms

Prion diseases are incurable neurodegenerative disorders in which the normal cellular prion protein (PrPC) converts into a misfolded isoform (PrPSc) with unique biochemical and structural properties that correlate with disease. In humans, prion disorders, such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, present typically with a sporadic origin, where unknown mechanisms lead to the spontaneous misfolding and deposition of wild type PrP. To shed light on how wild-type PrP undergoes conformational changes and which are the cellular components involved in this process, we analyzed the dynamics of wild-type PrP from hamster in transgenic flies. In young flies, PrP demonstrates properties of the benign PrPC; in older flies, PrP misfolds, acquires biochemical and structural properties of PrPSc, and induces spongiform degeneration of brain neurons. Aged flies accumulate insoluble PrP that resists high concentrations of denaturing agents and contains PrPSc-specific conformational epitopes. In contrast to PrPSc from mammals, PrP is proteinase-sensitive in flies. Thus, wild-type PrP rapidly converts in vivo into a neurotoxic, protease-sensitive isoform distinct from prototypical PrPSc. Next, we investigated the role of molecular chaperones in PrP misfolding in vivo. Remarkably, Hsp70 prevents the accumulation of PrPSc-like conformers and protects against PrP-dependent neurodegeneration. This protective activity involves the direct interaction between Hsp70 and PrP, which may occur in active membrane microdomains such as lipid rafts, where we detected Hsp70. These results highlight the ability of wild-type PrP to spontaneously convert in vivo into a protease-sensitive isoform that is neurotoxic, supporting the idea that protease-resistant PrPSc is not required for pathology. Moreover, we identify a new role for Hsp70 in the accumulation of misfolded PrP. Overall, we provide new insight into the mechanisms of spontaneous accumulation of neurotoxic PrP and uncover the potential therapeutic role of Hsp70 in treating these devastating disorders