Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period

Experimental, therapeutic and natural transmission of <it>Plasmodium vivax</it> tertian malaria: scientific and anecdotal data on the history of Dutch malaria studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>When <it>Plasmodium vivax</it> tertian malaria was prevalent in The Netherlands, the use of therapeutic malaria for the treatment of neurosyphilis patients presented an opportunity for biological studies of the parasite’s behaviour, in healthy volunteers. One unexplained phenomenon was the long latency between natural exposure to a single infected mosquito and the appearance of clinical signs (average 8 months). Dutch studies with volunteers and syphilis patients, suggested that hundreds of sporozoites transmitted by several mosquito bites were enough to provoke an early attack, known from tropical vivax-malaria. Sporozoites appeared to be programmed either to delay their pre-erythrocytic development or to proceed to an early attack within three weeks. The number of infectious bites also determined the relapse rate and the number of relapses after a primary attack. Analyses of primary cases and relapses from the previous year were used to predict the incidence for the next year. These historic findings fit well with recent studies on genotyping of blood stages during primary attacks and relapses. External factors (i.e. the milieu inside the human host) may trigger hypnozoites to reactivate, but predetermined periods of latency should also be considered.</p