Spatio-temporal evolution of global surface temperature distributions

Climate is known for being characterised by strong non-linearity and chaotic behaviour. Nevertheless, few studies in climate science adopt statistical methods specifically designed for non-stationary or non-linear systems. Here we show how the use of statistical methods from Information Theory can describe the non-stationary behaviour of climate fields, unveiling spatial and temporal patterns that may otherwise be difficult to recognize. We study the maximum temperature at two meters above ground using the NCEP CDAS1 daily reanalysis data, with a spatial resolution of 2.5 by 2.5 degree and covering the time period from 1 January 1948 to 30 November 2018. The spatial and temporal evolution of the temperature time series are retrieved using the Fisher Information Measure, which quantifies the information in a signal, and the Shannon Entropy Power, which is a measure of its uncertainty -- or unpredictability. The results describe the temporal behaviour of the analysed variable. Our findings suggest that tropical and temperate zones are now characterized by higher levels of entropy. Finally, Fisher-Shannon Complexity is introduced and applied to study the evolution of the daily maximum surface temperature distributions.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA) - A New Algorithm to Reduce Overfitting for Genomic Biomarker Discovery

Toxicogenomics promises to aid in predicting adverse effects, understanding the mechanisms of drug action or toxicity, and uncovering unexpected or secondary pharmacology. However, modeling adverse effects using high dimensional and high noise genomic data is prone to over-fitting. Models constructed from such data sets often consist of a large number of genes with no obvious functional relevance to the biological effect the model intends to predict that can make it challenging to interpret the modeling results. To address these issues, we developed a novel algorithm, Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA), which estimates the predictive power of each individual transcript through an iterative two-way bootstrapping procedure. By repeatedly enforcing that the sample number is larger than the transcript number, in each iteration of modeling and testing, PPEA reduces the potential risk of overfitting. We show with three different cases studies that: (1) PPEA can quickly derive a reliable rank order of predictive power of individual transcripts in a relatively small number of iterations, (2) the top ranked transcripts tend to be functionally related to the phenotype they are intended to predict, (3) using only the most predictive top ranked transcripts greatly facilitates development of multiplex assay such as qRT-PCR as a biomarker, and (4) more importantly, we were able to demonstrate that a small number of genes identified from the top-ranked transcripts are highly predictive of phenotype as their expression changes distinguished adverse from nonadverse effects of compounds in completely independent tests. Thus, we believe that the PPEA model effectively addresses the over-fitting problem and can be used to facilitate genomic biomarker discovery for predictive toxicology and drug responses

Maggot secretions suppress pro-inflammatory responses of human monocytes through elevation of cyclic AMP

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Maggots of the blowfly Lucilia sericata are used for the treatment of chronic wounds. As monocytes may contribute to the excessive inflammatory responses in such wounds, this study focussed on the effects of maggot secretions on the pro-inflammatory activities of these cells. METHODS: Freshly isolated monocytes were incubated with a range of secretions for 1 h and then stimulated with lipopolysaccharides (range 0-100 ng/ml) or lipoteichoic acid (range 0-5 microg/ml) for 18 h. The expression of cell surface molecules, cytokine and chemokine levels in culture supernatants, cell viability, chemotaxis, and phagocytosis and killing of Staphylococcus aureus were measured. RESULTS: Maggot secretions dose-dependently inhibited production of the pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-alpha, IL-12p40 and macrophage migration inhibitory factor by lipopolysaccharides- and lipoteichoic acid-stimulated monocytes, while enhancing production of the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10. Expression of cell surface receptors involved in pathogen recognition remained unaffected by secretions. In addition, maggot secretions altered the chemokine profile of monocytes by downregulating macrophage inflammatory protein-1beta and upregulating monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and IL-8. Nevertheless, chemotactic responses of monocytes were inhibited by secretions. Furthermore, maggot secretions did not affect phagocytosis and intracellular killing of S. aureus by human monocytes. Finally, secretions induced a transient rise in the intracellular cyclic AMP concentration in monocytes and Rp-cyclic AMPS inhibited the effects of secretions. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Maggot secretions inhibit the pro-inflammatory responses of human monocytes through a cyclic AMP-dependent mechanism. Regulation of the inflammatory processes by maggots contributes to their beneficial effects on chronic wound

A Coordinated Effort to Manage Soybean Rust in North America: A Success Story in Soybean Disease Monitoring

Existing crop monitoring programs determine the incidence and distribution of plant diseases and pathogens and assess the damage caused within a crop production region. These programs have traditionally used observed or predicted disease and pathogen data and environmental information to prescribe management practices that minimize crop loss (3,69). Monitoring programs are especially important for crops with broad geographic distribution or for diseases that can cause rapid and great economic losses. Successful monitoring programs have been developed for several plant diseases, including downy mildew of cucurbits, Fusarium head blight of wheat, potato late blight, and rusts of cereal crops (13,36,51,80)

Phosphodiesterase-4 Inhibition Alters Gene Expression and Improves Isoniazid – Mediated Clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Rabbit Lungs

Tuberculosis (TB) treatment is hampered by the long duration of antibiotic therapy required to achieve cure. This indolent response has been partly attributed to the ability of subpopulations of less metabolically active Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) to withstand killing by current anti-TB drugs. We have used immune modulation with a phosphodiesterase-4 (PDE4) inhibitor, CC-3052, that reduces tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) production by increasing intracellular cAMP in macrophages, to examine the crosstalk between host and pathogen in rabbits with pulmonary TB during treatment with isoniazid (INH). Based on DNA microarray, changes in host gene expression during CC-3052 treatment of Mtb infected rabbits support a link between PDE4 inhibition and specific down-regulation of the innate immune response. The overall pattern of host gene expression in the lungs of infected rabbits treated with CC-3052, compared to untreated rabbits, was similar to that described in vitro in resting Mtb infected macrophages, suggesting suboptimal macrophage activation. These alterations in host immunity were associated with corresponding down-regulation of a number of Mtb genes that have been associated with a metabolic shift towards dormancy. Moreover, treatment with CC-3052 and INH resulted in reduced expression of those genes associated with the bacterial response to INH. Importantly, CC-3052 treatment of infected rabbits was associated with reduced ability of Mtb to withstand INH killing, shown by improved bacillary clearance, from the lungs of co-treated animals compared to rabbits treated with INH alone. The results of our study suggest that changes in Mtb gene expression, in response to changes in the host immune response, can alter the responsiveness of the bacteria to antimicrobial agents. These findings provide a basis for exploring the potential use of adjunctive immune modulation with PDE4 inhibitors to enhance the efficacy of existing anti-TB treatment

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362