Oil prices and stock returns : nonlinear links across sectors

We present evidence of an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and stock returns. The two regime multivariate Markov switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) model allow us to capture the state shifts in the relationship between regional stock markets and sectors. Results suggest that oil price risk is significantly priced in the sample used. The impact is asymmetric with respect to market phases, and regimes have been associated with world economic, social and political events. Our study also suggests asymmetric responses of sector stock returns to oil price changes and different transmission impacts depending on the sector analyzed. There is a high causality from oil to sectors like Industrials and Oil & Gas. Companies inside the Utilities sector were more able to hedge against oil price increases between 2007 and 2012. Historical crisis events between 1992–1998 and 2003–2007 do not seem to have affected the relationship between oil and sector stock returns, given the higher probability of remaining smoother. For all sectors there seems to be a turn back to stability from 2012 onwards. Finally, investors gain more through portfolio diversification benefits built across, rather than within sectors.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Islamic financial markets and global crises: Contagion or decoupling?

This paper investigates the contagion effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) and Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) on Islamic equity and bond markets. Using a sample of Islamic stock indices from various developed and emerging markets and the global Islamic stock and bond (sukuk) indices, we explore asymmetric conditional correlation dynamics across stable and crisis periods and across the two crises. The results fail to provide strong contagion evidence between conventional and Islamic equity and bond indices, supporting the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic securities. Our findings imply that Islamic equities and bonds may provide a cushion against risk and instability, particularly in periods of turmoil. The small number of contagion cases mostly relates to the ESDC and developed Islamic stock indices. The findings also show that the Islamic emerging stock indices in the BRICS provide the most effective international portfolio diversification benefits compared to the Islamic developed indices. © 2016 Elsevier B.V

Dependence structure and dynamic connectedness between green bonds and financial markets: fresh insights from time-frequency analysis before and during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the interdependence between green bonds and financial markets in the timefrequency domain by utilizing the multivariate wavelet approach and dynamic connectedness through combining Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) with Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework. The findings of wavelet multiple correlations indicate that the benefits of diversification opportunities are more evident in the short run. The evidence of wavelet multiple crosscorrelations reveals that green bonds and financial markets are highly integrated in the long run. The results of the static connectedness framework explain that the direction and magnitude of spillover behave differently across markets. The world stock market is the net spillover transmitter, while the corporate bond market is the net spillover receiver among the selected markets. The green bond market is receiving more but transmitted less volatility in the present study. The evidence on dynamic connectedness measured by the rolling window approach shows that the interconnection between green bonds and financial markets is volatile over time. These pieces of evidence provide implications to global investors having a strong position in the green bonds market in terms of risk management and portfolio decisions