Other things equal: Samuelsonian Economics

Deirdre McClosky argues that we need to get beyond the Age of Samuelsonianism in economics and get back to theorizing and observing. Economics, especially mainstream American economics, for all its promise, is in very bad shape because it has fallen into a cargo-cult version of “science” in which qualitative theorem-making runs the “theory” and statistical significance without a loss function runs the “empirical work.” Consequently, none of the high-prestige “work” in the journals is to be taken seriously. Most (say 95 percent) of its alleged “results” have to be done all over again, by economic scientists using—in preference to the mumbo-jumbo that has passed for scientific method among economists since 1947— real scientific methods (such as serious simulation disciplined by the world’s facts; and functional-form math; and statistical significance, when relevant, with loss functions; and economic history; and inquiry into all the other human sciences we economists have been invited so long to ignore). A real science—or a real inquiry into anything about the actual world—should both think and watch, theorize and observe.Economics

Other things equal: Why economists should not be ashamed of being the philosophers of prudence

McCloskey argues that economists should be proud to be so very expert in one of Seven Cardinal Virtues, Prudence.Economists

Sequential presentation protects working memory from catastrophic interference

Neural network models of memory are notorious for catastrophic interference: old items are forgotten as new items are memorized (e.g., French, 1999; McCloskey & Cohen, 1989). While Working Memory (WM) in human adults shows severe capacity limitations, these capacity limitations do not reflect neural-network style catastrophic interference. However, our ability to quickly apprehend the numerosity of small sets of objects (i.e., subitizing) does show catastrophic capacity limitations, and this subitizing capacity and WM might reflect a common capacity. Accordingly, computational investigations (Knops, Piazza, Sengupta, Eger, & Melcher, 2014; Sengupta, Surampudi, & Melcher, 2014) suggest that mutual inhibition among neurons can explain both kinds of capacity limitations as well as why our ability to estimate the numerosity of larger sets is limited according to a Weber ratio signature. Based on simulations with a saliency map-like network and mathematical proofs, we provide three results. First, mutual inhibition among neurons leads to catastrophic interference when items are presented simultaneously. The network can remember a limited number of items, but when more items are presented, the network forgets all of them. Second, if memory items are presented sequentially rather than simultaneously, the network remembers the most recent items rather than forgetting all of them. Hence, the tendency in WM tasks to sequentially attend even to simultaneously presented items might not only reflect attentional limitations, but an adaptive strategy to avoid catastrophic interference. Third, the mean activation level in the network can be used to estimate the number of items in small sets, but does not accurately reflect the number of items in larger sets. Rather, we suggest that the Weber ratio signature of large number discrimination emerges naturally from the interaction between the limited precision of a numeric estimation system and a multiplicative gain control mechanism

Other things equal: What's Wrong with the Earth Charter

The Earth Charter, based on the model of the United Nations Charter on Human Rights, is circulating in Green Circles. Deirdre McCloskey spells out what's bad and false about the Charter. Although Ms. McCloskey hopes the Charter fails, she is not hopeful. The document, written by biologists and other activists entirely innocent of economics, has a good deal of economic nonsense. It fails to recognize how bad the project of social engineering has been for human freedom, which also means it has a good deal of political nonsense. But as she says, "when has nonsense been a bar to the success of a manifesto, left, right, or center, Red, Blue, or Green?"Economics

Domestic Legislation and the Law of the Sea Conference

This presentation and panel discussion are part of the symposium entitled: Mining the Deep Seabed: A Range of Perspectives. It addresses some of the issues facing the United States Congress such as protecting the position of U.S. companies, as well as promoting international agreements with regards to ocean mining

Unraveling the Cationic and Anionic Redox Reactions in a Conventional Layered Oxide Cathode

Increasing interest in high-energy lithium-ion batteries has triggered the demand to clarify the reaction mechanism in battery cathodes during high-potential operation. However, the reaction mechanism often involves both transition-metal and oxygen activities that remain elusive. Here we report a comprehensive study of both cationic and anionic redox mechanisms of LiNiO2 nearly full delithiation. Selection of pure LiNiO2 removes the complication of multiple transition metals. Using combined X-ray absorption spectroscopy, resonant inelastic X-ray scattering, and operando differential electrochemical mass spectrometry, we are able to clarify the redox reactions of transition metals in the bulk and at the surface, reversible lattice oxygen redox, and irreversible oxygen release associated with surface reactions. Many findings presented here bring attention to different types of oxygen activities and metal-oxygen interactions in layered oxides, which are of crucial importance to the advancement of a Ni-rich layered oxide cathode for high capacity and long cycling performance