PERAMALAN TRANSAKSI PENJUALAN DENGAN METODE HOLT-WINTER EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Peramalan merupakan salah satu strategi yang cukup signifikan untuk meningkatkan keuntungan bisnis. Peramalan transaksi penjualan dapat membantu para pengambil keputusan dalam suatu bisnis untuk menentukan strategi penjualan yang akan diterapkan. Peramalan penjualan dilakukan dengan metode Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing. Model Holt Winte

Systems and technologies for objective evaluation of technical skills in laparoscopic surgery

Minimally invasive surgery is a highly demanding surgical approach regarding technical requirements for the surgeon, who must be trained in order to perform a safe surgical intervention. Traditional surgical education in minimally invasive surgery is commonly based on subjective criteria to quantify and evaluate surgical abilities, which could be potentially unsafe for the patient. Authors, surgeons and associations are increasingly demanding the development of more objective assessment tools that can accredit surgeons as technically competent. This paper describes the state of the art in objective assessment methods of surgical skills. It gives an overview on assessment systems based on structured checklists and rating scales, surgical simulators, and instrument motion analysis. As a future work, an objective and automatic assessment method of surgical skills should be standardized as a means towards proficiency-based curricula for training in laparoscopic surgery and its certification

Mild hypoglycemia is strongly associated with increased intensive care unit length of stay

Background: Hypoglycemia is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients. The impact of hypoglycemia on resource utilization has not been investigated. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the association of hypoglycemia, defined as a blood glucose concentration (BG) <70 mg/dL, and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) in three different cohorts of critically ill patients. Methods: This is a retrospective investigation of prospectively collected data, including patients from two large observational cohorts: 3,263 patients admitted to Stamford Hospital (ST) and 2,063 patients admitted to three institutions in The Netherlands (NL) as well as 914 patients from the GLUCONTROL trial (GL), a multicenter prospective randomized controlled trial of intensive insulin therapy. Results: Patients with hypoglycemia were more likely to be diabetic, had higher APACHE II scores, and higher mortality than did patients without hypoglycemia. Patients with hypoglycemia had longer ICU LOS (median [interquartile range]) in ST (3.0 [1.4-7.1] vs. 1.2 [0.8-2.3] days, P <0.0001), NL (5.2 [2.6-10.3] vs. 2.0 [1.3-3.2] days, P <0.0001), and GL (9 [5-17] vs. 5 [3-9] days, P <0.0001). For the entire cohort of 6,240 patients ICU LOS was 1.8 (1.03.3) days for those without hypoglycemia and 3.0 (1.5-6.7) days for those with a single episode of hypoglycemia (P <0.0001). This was a consistent finding even when patients were stratified by severity of illness or survivor status. There was a strong positive correlation between the number of episodes of hypoglycemia and ICU LOS among all three cohorts. Conclusions: This multicenter international investigation demonstrated that hypoglycemia was consistently associated with significantly higher ICU LOS in heterogeneous cohorts of critically ill patients, independently of severity of illness and survivor status. More effective methods to prevent hypoglycemia in these patients may positively impact their cost of car

Computer-assisted glucose control in critically ill patients

Objective: Intensive insulin therapy is associated with the risk of hypoglycemia and increased costs of material and personnel. We therefore evaluated the safety and efficiency of a computer-assisted glucose control protocol in a large population of critically ill patients. Design and setting: Observational cohort study in three intensive care units (32 beds) in a 1,300-bed university teaching hospital. Patients: All 2,800 patients admitted to the surgical, neurosurgical, and cardiothoracic units; the study period started at each ICU after implementation of Glucose Regulation for Intensive Care Patients (GRIP), a freely available computer-assisted glucose control protocol. Measurements and results: We analysed compliance in relation to recommended insulin pump rates and glucose measurement frequency. Patients were on GRIP-ordered pump rates 97% of time. Median measurement time was 5 min late (IQR 20 min early to 34 min late). Hypoglycemia was uncommon (7% of patients for mild hypoglycemia, <3.5 mmol/l; 0.86% for severe hypoglycemia, <2.2 mmol/l). Our predefined target range (4.0 - 7.5 mmol/l) was reached after a median of 5.6h (IQR 0.2 - 11.8) and maintained for 89% (70 - 100%) of the remaining stay at the ICU. The number of measurements needed was 5.9 (4.8 - 7.3) per patient per day. In-hospital mortality was 10.1%. Conclusions: Our computer-assisted glucose control protocol provides safe and efficient glucose regulation in routine intensive care practice. A low rate of hypoglycemic episodes was achieved with a considerably lower number of glucose measurements than used in most other schemes

The GRADE System for Rating Clinical Guidelines

Brian Kavanagh critiques the GRADE system of grading guidelines, arguing that even though it has evolved through the Evidence-Based Medicine movement, there is no evidence that GRADE itself is reliable

Regioisomeric and substituent effects upon the outcome of the reaction of 1-borodienes with nitrosoarene compounds

A study of the reactivity of 1-borodienes with nitrosoarene compounds has been carried out showing an outcome that differs according to the hybridization state of the boron moiety. Using an sp2 boron substituent, a one-pot hetero-Diels–Alder/ring contraction cascade occurred to afford N-arylpyrroles with low to good yields depending on the electronic properties of the substituents on the borodiene, whereas an sp3 boron substituent led to the formation of stable boro-oxazines with high regioselectivity in most of the cases, in moderate to good yields. 1H and 11B NMR studies on two boro-oxazine regioisomers showed that selective deprotection can be performed. Formation of either the pyrrole or the furan derivative is pH- and regioisomer-structure-dependent. The results obtained, together with previous B3LYP calculations, support mechanistic proposals which suggest that pyrrole, or furan, formation proceeds via oxazine formation, followed by a boryl rearrangement and an intramolecular addition–elimination sequence

EVA: Laparoscopic instrument tracking based on endoscopic video analysis for psychomotor skills assessment

INTRODUCTION: The EVA (Endoscopic Video Analysis) tracking system a new tracking system for extracting motions of laparoscopic instruments based on non-obtrusive video tracking was developed. The feasibility of using EVA in laparoscopic settings has been tested in a box trainer setup. METHODS: EVA makes use of an algorithm that employs information of the laparoscopic instrument's shaft edges in the image, the instrument's insertion point, and the camera's optical centre to track the 3D position of the instrument tip. A validation study of EVA comprised a comparison of the measurements achieved with EVA and the TrEndo tracking system. To this end, 42 participants (16 novices, 22 residents, and 4 experts) were asked to perform a peg transfer task in a box trainer. Ten motion-based metrics were used to assess their performance. RESULTS: Construct validation of the EVA has been obtained for seven motion-based metrics. Concurrent validation revealed that there is a strong correlation between the results obtained by EVA and the TrEndo for metrics such as path length (p=0,97), average speed (p=0,94) or economy of volume (p=0,85), proving the viability of EVA. CONCLUSIONS: EVA has been successfully used in the training setup showing potential of endoscopic video analysis to assess laparoscopic psychomotor skills. The results encourage further implementation of video tracking in training setups and in image guided surgery

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac