A changing natural history of primary biliary cholangitis and its impact on risk stratification

We sought to describe temporal trends in the presenting characteristics and clinical course of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) from the 1970s to 2014 in a large international cohort of patients. There was a 10-year increase in age at diagnosis and the proportion of patients presenting with a mild biochemical and histological disease stage increased. Furthermore, recent decades had improved decompensation and transplant-free survival rates. Since most patients presented with normal bilirubin, we aimed to evaluate whether normal bilirubin is associated with transplant-free survival. In patients with normal bilirubin at 1 year, the threshold with the highest ability to predict liver transplantation or death was 0.6×ULN. Patients with normal bilirubin, yet above this threshold, had a 2.1-fold increase in risk. In conclusion, the natural history of PBC has changed over time and bilirubin levels ≤0.6×ULN are associated with the lowest risk for liver transplantation or death in patients with PBC.M.Sc

SERUM BILE ACIDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH NATIVE LIVER SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH ALAGILLE SYNDROME: RESULTS FROM THE GALA STUDY GROUP

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Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is prognostic for early recurrence after curative intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma resection

Backgrounds/Aims: Within two years of surgery, 70% of resected intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) recur. Better biomarkers are needed to identify those at risk of “early recurrence” (ER). In this study, we defined ER and investigated whether preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic-inflammatory index were prognostic of both overall relapse and ER after curative hepatectomy for iCCA. Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for iCCA between 2005 and 2017 were created. The cut-off timepoint for the ER of iCCA was estimated using a piecewise linear regression model. Univariable analyses of recurrence were conducted for the overall, early, and late recurrence periods. For the early and late recurrence periods, multivariable Cox regression with time-varying regression coefficient analysis was used. Results: A total of 113 patients were included in this study. ER was defined as recurrence within 12 months of a curative resection. Among the included patients, 38.1% experienced ER. In the univariable model, a higher preoperative NLR (> 4.3) was significantly associated with an increased risk of recurrence overall and in the first 12 months after curative surgery. In the multivariable model, a higher NLR was associated with a higher recurrence rate overall and in the ER period (≤ 12 months), but not in the late recurrence period. Conclusions: Preoperative NLR was prognostic of both overall recurrence and ER after curative iCCA resection. NLR is easily obtained before and after surgery and should be integrated into ER prediction tools to guide preoperative treatments and intensify postoperative follow-up

Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is prognostic for early recurrence after curative intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma resection

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS: Within two years of surgery, 70% of resected intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) recur. Better biomarkers are needed to identify those at risk of early recurrence (ER). In this study, we defined ER and investigated whether preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic-inflammatory index were prognostic of both overall relapse and ER after curative hepatectomy for iCCA. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for iCCA between 2005 and 2017 were created. The cut-off timepoint for the ER of iCCA was estimated using a piecewise linear regression model. Univariable analyses of recurrence were conducted for the overall, early, and late recurrence periods. For the early and late recurrence periods, multivariable Cox regression with time-varying regression coefficient analysis was used. RESULTS: A total of 113 patients were included in this study. ER was defined as recurrence within 12 months of a curative resection. Among the included patients, 38.1% experienced ER. In the univariable model, a higher preoperative NLR (\u3e 4.3) was significantly associated with an increased risk of recurrence overall and in the first 12 months after curative surgery. In the multivariable model, a higher NLR was associated with a higher recurrence rate overall and in the ER period (≤ 12 months), but not in the late recurrence period. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative NLR was prognostic of both overall recurrence and ER after curative iCCA resection. NLR is easily obtained before and after surgery and should be integrated into ER prediction tools to guide preoperative treatments and intensify postoperative follow-up

Trends in indications and outcomes of liver transplantation in Canada: A multicenter retrospective study

The liver transplantation (LT) landscape is continuously evolving. We sought to evaluate trends in indications for LT in Canada and the impact of primary liver disease on post-LT outcomes using a national transplant registry. Adult patients who underwent a primary LT between 2000 and 2018 were retrospectively identified in the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry. Outcomes included post-LT patient and graft survival. A total of 5,722 LTs were identified. The number of LT per year increased from 251 in 2000 to 349 in 2018. The proportion of patients transplanted for HCV decreased from 31.5% in 2000 to 3.4% in 2018. In contrast, the percentage of transplants for HCC increased from 2.3% in 2000 to 32.4% in 2018, and those performed for NASH increased from 0.4% in 2005 to 12.6% in 2018. Year of transplant (per 1 year) was protective for both patient (HR:0.96,95%CI:0.94-0.97; P < 0.001) and graft survival (HR:0.97, 95%CI: 0.96–0.99; P = 0.001). Post-LT outcomes have improved over time in this nationwide analysis spanning 18 years. Moreover, trends in the indications for LT have changed, with HCC becoming the leading etiology. The decrease in the proportion of HCV patients and increase in those with NASH has implications on the evolving management of LT patients

Dynamic risk profiling of HCC recurrence after curative intent liver resection

Background and Aims: Following liver resection (LR) for HCC, the likelihood of survival is dynamic, in that multiple recurrences and/or metastases are possible, each having variable impacts on outcomes. We sought to evaluate the natural progression, pattern, and timing of various disease states after LR for HCC using multistate modeling and to create a practical calculator to provide prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Approach and Results: Adult patients undergoing LR for HCC between January 2000 and December 2018 were retrospectively identified at a single center. Multistate analysis modeled post-LR tumor progression by describing transitions between distinct disease states. In this model, the states included surgery, intrahepatic recurrence (first, second, third, fourth, fifth), distant metastasis with or without intrahepatic recurrence, and death. Of the 486 patients included, 169 (34.8%) remained recurrence-free, 205 (42.2%) developed intrahepatic recurrence, 80 (16.5%) developed distant metastasis, and 32 (7%) died. For an average patient having undergone LR, there was a 33.1% chance of remaining disease-free, a 31.0% chance of at least one intrahepatic recurrence, a 16.3% chance of distant metastasis, and a 19.8% chance of death within the first 60 months post-LR. The transition probability from surgery to first intrahepatic recurrence, without a subsequent state transition, increased from 3% (3 months) to 17.4% (30 months) and 17.2% (60 months). Factors that could modify these probabilities included tumor size, satellite lesions, and microvascular invasion. The online multistate model calculator can be found on https://multistatehcc.shinyapps.io/home/. Conclusions: In contrast to standard single time-to-event estimates, multistate modeling provides more realistic prognostication of outcomes after LR for HCC by taking into account many postoperative disease states and transitions between them. Our multistate modeling calculator can provide meaningful data to guide the management of patients undergoing postoperative surveillance and therapy