Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production FrontiermAnalysis

The main objective of this study is to estimate the input elasticities of production for poor and non-poor farms. The study estimates the stochastic frontier production function. The results show that the elasticities of production differ for poor and non-poor farms. The production elasticity of land is substantially higher on rich farms as compared to the farms belonging to poor farmers. This implies higher returns on investment on land by the rich farmers. The salinity/sodicity problem and the tail-end location of the plot adversely affect farm productivity and efficiency, particularly at the poor farms. Moreover, the average cost of the existence of technical inefficiencies is about 43 percent in terms of loss in output, with wide variations across farms ranging from 17 percent to 62 percent. The study further concludes that the least efficient group is not only operating far below the frontier but it also operates at the lower portion of the production frontier. Consequently, increasing access to the inputs would likely raise productivity and reduce poverty. The results imply that the land distribution using the notion of land reforms in favour of poor/small farmers in the presence of existing farm structure, rural infrastructure, and the weak farm-supporting institutions is not expected to raise farm productivity and reduce poverty among the poor farmers. The results call for a strong and active role of the government in close partnership with the private sector to initiate income-generating activities and inputs supply chains in the rural areas to break the nexus of poverty, land degradation, and low agricultural productivity.

Agricultural Productivity Growth Differential in Punjab, Pakistan: A District-level Analysis

The results of this paper show that the crop output increased at the rate of 2.6 percent per annum, dominated by the share of TFP growth. Wide variation exists among cropping systems as well as within the system both in TFP growth and output growth. The mungbean zone emerged as a leader in TFP growth with 3.6 percent per annum, followed by barani (3.2 percent), cotton (1.9 percent), mixed (1.1 percent), and rice (1.0 percent) zones. Rice, mixed, and cotton zones show a negative trend in efficiency, and the respective causes appear to be the dominant factor of land degradation sourced by the existence of nutrient-exhaustive cropping pattern, increasing problem of waterlogging and salinity, and the use of brackish underground water, plus the prevalence of curl leaf virus disease in the cotton zone during the 1990s. The other reasons could be the low literacy rate among the farmers in most of the districts of the latter two cropping systems. Besides, the majority of them are also characterised as having very low status in development ranking. The data also show that the area under rice and sugarcane, a highly water-intensive crop, had increased in most of the districts of mixed and cotton zones, during the 1990s instrumented by high instability in cotton output growth as compared to rice and sugarcane. The sources of instability include high volatility in prices, vulnerability of the crop to disease and insect attack, consistently rising production cost, incapacity of the farming communities to deal with the dynamism of technology in cotton production, and increasing waterlogging and salinity problem.

An Analysis of the Sources of Wheat Output Growth in the Barani Area of the Punjab

A time-varying efficiency effects approach using district level data of wheat in barani Punjab is used to disintegrate wheat output growth into different sources. The results show that wheat output grew at an annual rate of 2.71 percent under barani conditions, during the period of study. Technological change was the main driving force, sharing about 107 percent of this growth, while the changing inputs contributed negatively by about 10 percent and the efficiency contribution was less than 4 percent. On the other hand, irrigated output increased by about 4.7 percent per annum in the region; of which 65 percent, 1.3 percent, and 34 percent were attributable to technological change, change in efficiency, and increase in inputs. As regards the overall wheat output in the barani region of the Punjab, it grew at an annual rate of 2.97 percent—84 percent of which was shared by the barani lands and the remaining 16 percent was contributed by irrigated lands in the region. One common result which was observed under both barani and irrigated conditions was that the productivity growth (the sum of technological and efficiency change) showed declining trends exclusively due to negative trends in technical efficiency. Low relative profitability as compared to growing vegetables and raising livestock might be the main cause of this trend in the barani area: the same reason could also be a source of decline in efficiency. Rapid technological advancements require that farmers and administrators improve their management skills even to keep the productive efficiency at the same level. This is not possible without education and training along with a more effective flow of information [Lall (1993)]. Under these circumstances, the agricultural extension system has to play a greater role in assisting the farming community in the barani areas so as to adopt and use new technologies more rationally.

Restoration of Soil Health for Achieving Sustainable Growth in Agriculture

Total geographical area of Pakistan is 79.61 million hectares (m.ha.). Area under cultivation is 21.59 m.ha.; of which, only 5.34 m.ha. (i.e., 25 percent) is free from soil limitations and is fit for intensive agriculture [Mian and Mirza (1993)]. The remaining agricultural lands have various types of problems including formation of slow permeability, water logging, salinity and sodicity, and wind and water erosion. Thus, on an average, three out of four hectares of cultivated land in Pakistan are in poor health. This in turn is causing temporary or permanent decline in the productive capacity of the land. Therefore, poor soil health is posing serious threat to the sustainable growth of agriculture.

STUDYING IN AUSTRALIA TO IMPROVE ENGLISH SPEAKING COMPETENCE: REVISITED

This study investigates Indonesian postgraduate students perceptions about their improvement in English speaking competence during their period of study in Australia. Statistical tests show that the students who had spent more than one year in Australia perceived their English speaking competence as higher than those who had stayed for less than a year. However, the respondents expressed uncertainty as to whether their English would improve, even if they were to extend their stay in this English speaking country because of their Indonesian circles. They believed that they have improved their confidence in speaking English because of their stay in Australia. Finally, learning from this study some suggestions for the students learning English in Indonesia are proposed

An Analysis of the Sources of Wheat Output Growth in the Barani Area of the Punjab

A time-varying efficiency effects approach using district level data of wheat in barani Punjab is used to disintegrate wheat output growth into different sources. The results show that wheat output grew at an annual rate of 2.71 percent under barani conditions, during the period of study. Technological change was the main driving force, sharing about 107 percent of this growth, while the changing inputs contributed negatively by about 10 percent and the efficiency contribution was less than 4 percent. On the other hand, irrigated output increased by about 4.7 percent per annum in the region; of which 65 percent, 1.3 percent, and 34 percent were attributable to technological change, change in efficiency, and increase in inputs. As regards the overall wheat output in the barani region of the Punjab, it grew at an annual rate of 2.97 percent—84 percent of which was shared by the barani lands and the remaining 16 percent was contributed by irrigated lands in the region. One common result which was observed under both barani and irrigated conditions was that the productivity growth (the sum of technological and efficiency change) showed declining trends exclusively due to negative trends in technical efficiency. Low relative profitability as compared to growing vegetables and raising livestock might be the main cause of this trend in the barani area: the same reason could also be a source of decline in efficiency. Rapid technological advancements require that farmers and administrators improve their management skills even to keep the productive efficiency at the same level. This is not possible without education and training along with a more effective flow of information [Lall (1993)]. Under these circumstances, the agricultural extension system has to play a greater role in assisting the farming community in the barani areas so as to adopt and use new technologies more rationally

Simulation modeling of a biofueled energy system

Simulation modeling leads to a better understanding of the energy system, facilitates evaluation of the effects of complex interactions on system performance, and provides useful information on effects of design changes on the long term viability of the system. The objective of this study was to develop a simulation model of a biofueled energy system: (a) to predict design and seasonal energy requirements of the system; (b) to predict the seasonal efficiency of the biofueled boilers; (c) to perform economic analyses of the biofueled energy system (based on life cycle savings or present worth analysis);A simulation model of a biofueled energy system (BIOMOD) was developed to assist potential users of biofuel energy, and to perform parametric analyses of the most critical and uncertain variables of a biofueled energy system. BIOMOD consists of three submodels namely THERM, SIMPSE, and CYCLE. THERM predicts the hourly heating load at various bin temperatures, and design as well as seasonal energy requirements of the building envelope. SIMPSE simulates boiler operation and predicts the seasonal efficiency of biofueled space heating boilers. CYCLE performs the life cycle cost analysis of a biofueled energy system;To validate the THERM submodel, the measured seasonal load (November 1989-March 1990) of the McNAY Research Center residence was compared with the predicted heating load. The THERM prediction of seasonal load was in good agreement (within 6.5%) with the measured load. To validate the SIMPSE submodel, the measured seasonal efficiencies of the McNAY biofueled boiler for the months of December, January, February and March 1990 were compared with the model predictions. The SIMPSE predictions were within 3% of the measured results;About one hundred runs of SIMPSE were made to predict the performance of the biofueled boiler at various combinations of design and operating variables. The results were plotted to be easily accessible to biofueled boiler designers and operators, to assist them in obtaining higher boiler efficiency. CYCLE was used to perform the life cycle cost analysis of the McNAY biofueled energy system

Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis

The main objective of this study is to estimate the input elasticities of production for poor and non-poor farms. The study estimates the stochastic frontier production function. The results show that the elasticities of production differ for poor and non-poor farms. The production elasticity of land is substantially higher on rich farms as compared to the farms belonging to poor farmers. This implies higher returns on investment on land by the rich farmers. The salinity/sodicity problem and the tail-end location of the plot adversely affect farm productivity and efficiency, particularly at the poor farms. Moreover, the average cost of the existence of technical inefficiencies is about 43 percent in terms of loss in output, with wide variations across farms ranging from 17 percent to 62 percent. The study further concludes that the least efficient group is not only operating far below the frontier but it also operates at the lower portion of the production frontier. Consequently, increasing access to the inputs would likely raise productivity and reduce poverty. The results imply that the land distribution using the notion of land reforms in favour of poor/small farmers in the presence of existing farm structure, rural infrastructure, and the weak farm-supporting institutions is not expected to raise farm productivity and reduce poverty among the poor farmers. The results call for a strong and active role of the government in close partnership with the private sector to initiate income-generating activities and inputs supply chains in the rural areas to break the nexus of poverty, land degradation, and low agricultural productivity

Agricultural Productivity Growth Differential in Punjab, Pakistan: A District-level Analysis

The results of this paper show that the crop output increased at the rate of 2.6 percent per annum, dominated by the share of TFP growth. Wide variation exists among cropping systems as well as within the system both in TFP growth and output growth. The mungbean zone emerged as a leader in TFP growth with 3.6 percent per annum, followed by barani (3.2 percent), cotton (1.9 percent), mixed (1.1 percent), and rice (1.0 percent) zones. Rice, mixed, and cotton zones show a negative trend in efficiency, and the respective causes appear to be the dominant factor of land degradation sourced by the existence of nutrient-exhaustive cropping pattern, increasing problem of waterlogging and salinity, and the use of brackish underground water, plus the prevalence of curl leaf virus disease in the cotton zone during the 1990s. The other reasons could be the low literacy rate among the farmers in most of the districts of the latter two cropping systems. Besides, the majority of them are also characterised as having very low status in development ranking. The data also show that the area under rice and sugarcane, a highly water-intensive crop, had increased in most of the districts of mixed and cotton zones, during the 1990s instrumented by high instability in cotton output growth as compared to rice and sugarcane. The sources of instability include high volatility in prices, vulnerability of the crop to disease and insect attack, consistently rising production cost, incapacity of the farming communities to deal with the dynamism of technology in cotton production, and increasing waterlogging and salinity problem