Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

Geographic variation and associated factors of long-acting contraceptive use among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia: a multi-level and spatial analysis of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data

Plain language summary Lower and middle-income countries such as Ethiopia face a challenge of an ever increasing population with high maternal mortality. In Ethiopia, the population is estimated to be more than 110 million. High fertility rates, unintended pregnancy, maternal and child mortalities are the main concerns of the country. Accordingly, it is required of the country to make a robust intervention to limit these public concerns. In relation to this, LACs utilization happens to be one of the solutions to solving the concerns. Despite their efficacy, availability, and acceptability the utilization of LACs remains low and varies among different geographic areas. However, the reason is still undefined and geographic variation was not assessed before. In our study, we analyze the Ethiopian demographic and health survey 2016 data to assess the presence of significant geographic variation and associated factors of long-acting contraceptive utilization. Hence, a spatial and multilevel analysis were employed to assess the geographic variation and associated factors of LACs utilization in Ethiopia. A statistically significant geographic variation was observed among different clusters. Clusters with significantly low utilization of LACs were found in the pastoralist (Afar, Gambela, and Somalia) regions of the country. Thus, more organized efforts need to be made to increase the utilization of LACs. Controlling for others: Marital statuses, occupation, future pregnancy interest, urban residence, previous history of abortion, living in the pastoralist community were statistically significant determinant factors of LACs utilization. In conclusion, significant geographic variation of LACs utilization was observed among different clusters. Besides, different socio-demographic, pregnancy, and child health-related variables were significant determinants of LACs utilization

Treatment interruption and associated factors among patients registered on drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Amhara regional state, Ethiopia: 2010-2017.

BackgroundDrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB) is a rising threat of the TB control program caused mainly by treatment interruption in Ethiopia. The success of the current treatment regimen for DR-TB is poor partly due to a high treatment interruption rate. Thus, this study assessed treatment interruption and associated factors among DR-TB patients.MethodsAn institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 550 DR-TB patients who have initiated treatment from September 2010 to December 2017. Data were entered using Epi Data version 4.200 and exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. A bi-variable logistic regression model was first fitted, and variables having a p-value ResultsIn this study, the prevalence of treatment interruption among patients registered on DR-TB treatment was 14.55% (95% CI: 11.83, 17.76). Of the interrupters, the treatment interruption during the intensive and continuation phase of treatment was reported as 45% and 71.25%, respectively. Similarly, about 15% of patients had treatment interruption both during the intensive and continuation phase of treatment. The average duration of treatment interruption was 12 (±2.03 SD) and 6 (±1.2 SD) days during the intensive and continuation phase of treatment, respectively. Patients who had no treatment supporter [AOR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.23-3.66] and developed adverse drug events [AOR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.22-2.85] were statistically significant predictors of treatment interruption.ConclusionsTreatment interruption was low in the study setting. The presence of treatment supporter and absence of drug side effects was significantly associated with decreased occurrence of treatment interruption. Thus, patient linkage to treatment supporter and excellent pharmacovigilance are highly recommended in the study setting

High dropout rate from maternity continuum of care after antenatal care booking and its associated factors among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, Evidence from Demographic and Health Survey 2016.

BackgroundMaternal continuums of care were vital to reducing maternal and neonatal mortalities. While the dropout rate remains high and limited studies were found on risk factors associated with a high dropout rate of the maternal continuum of care.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the magnitude of dropout rate and its associated factors of maternity continuum of care in Ethiopia, 2016.MethodsAn in-depth secondary data analysis was conducted from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data. A total of 4,693 women who were booked for antenatal care visit were included to the final analysis. A community-based cross-sectional study design and a pre-tested and standardized questionnaire were used to collect the survey data. Data were weighted using women data weighting variables. Chi-square and multicollinearity assumptions were checked for independent variables. Bi-variable and multivariable logistics regression used to identify associated factors with a cut of the p-value of 0.2 and 0.05 respectively. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95%CI was reported for the final model.ResultsOf the total 4,693 women who were booked for antenatal care visits, 2,092(44.58%), 2,183 (46.52%), and 4,086(87.07%) dropped from a recommended number of ANC, Institutional delivery and postnatal care visit respectively. Only 308 (6.56%, 95%CI: 5.89, 7.31) women used all the complete continuum of care. Not married, and poorest wealth index were significantly associated with dropout from ANC visit. Being a protestant religious follower was significantly associated with dropout from PNC after antenatal care booking. While not exposed to media, distance from health facility as a big problem, protestant affiliation, parity of 2 to 4 and above4, Wealth index of the poorest, poorer, middle, and richer significantly associated with dropout from institutional delivery. Not being informed about pregnancy complications during their ANC visit was significantly associated with dropout from ANC, PNC, and institutional delivery.ConclusionsDropout of women from the maternity continuum of care after antenatal care booking was a public health problem in Ethiopia. Socio-demographic, pregnancy, and health service-related factors were significant determinants of dropout from the maternity continuum of care. Improving the family wealth index, increasing access to health facilities, media exposure, and giving more information during the antenatal care visit is important to reduce the dropout rate from the maternity continuum of care

Comparing the impact of genotypic based diagnostic algorithm on time to treatment initiation and treatment outcomes among drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BackgroundTo end Tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, early detection and timely treatment of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB) is vital. The role of rapid, accurate, and sensitive DR-TB diagnostic tool is indispensable to accelerate the TB control program. There are evidence breaks in the time difference and its effect on treatment outcomes among different DR-TB diagnostic tools in Ethiopia. This article aimed to compare the different DR-TB diagnostic tools with time pointers and evaluate their effect on the treatment outcomes.MethodWe performed a retrospective chart review of 574 DR-TB patients from September 2010 to December 2017 to compare the impact of molecular DR-TB diagnostic tests (Xpert MTB/RIF, Line Probe Assay (LPA), and solid culture-based Drug Susceptibility Testing (DST)) on time to diagnosis, treatment initiation, and treatment Outcomes. Kruskual-Wallis test was employed to assess the presence of a significant difference in median time among the DR-TB diagnostic tests. Chi-Square and Fisher exact tests were used to test the presence of relations between treatment outcome and diagnostic tests.ResultThe data of 574 DR-TB patients were included in the analysis. From these, 321, 173, and 80 patients were diagnosed using Xpert MTB/RIF, Line Probe Assay (LPA), and solid culture-based DST, respectively. The median time in a day with (Interquartile range (IQR)) for Xpert MTB/RIF, LPA, and solid culture-based DST was from a first care-seeking visit to diagnosis: 2(0, 9), 4(1, 55), and 70(18, 182), from diagnosis to treatment initiation: 3(1, 8), 33(4, 76), and 44(9, 145), and from a first care-seeking visit to treatment initiation: 4(1, 11), 3(1, 12) and 76(3.75, 191) respectively. The shorter median time was observed in the Xpert MTB/RIF followed by the LPA, and this was statistically significant with a p-value ConclusionXpert MTB/RIF can mitigate the transmission of DR-TB significantly via quick diagnosis and treatment initiation followed by LPA as equating to the solid culture base DST, particularly in smear-positive patients. However, we didn't see a statistically significant impact in terms of treatment outcomes. Xpert MTB/RIF can be used as the first test to diagnose DR-TB by further complimenting solid culture base DST to grasp the drug-resistance profile

Households access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities in Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis based on 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

Objective This study aimed to assess households access to improved drinking water sources and sanitation facilities and their associated factors in Ethiopia.Design Cross-sectional study.Setting Ethiopia.Participants Household heads.Primary outcomes Access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities.Methods We conducted an in-depth secondary data analysis of 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Data from a total of 16 650 households and 645 clusters were included in the analysis. The households were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique. Multilevel binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with access to an improved drinking water source and toilet facilities. Adjusted OR with a 95% CI was reported with p value <0.05 was used to declare a significant association between the covariates and the outcome variables.Results The proportions of households’ access to improved sources of drinking water and toilet facilities were 69.94% (95% CI: 69.23% to 70.63%) and 25.36% (95% CI: 24.69% to 26.03%), respectively. Households headed by women and households with a better wealth index were positively associated with access to improved drinking water sources. Whereas rural households, ≥30 min round trip to obtain drinking water and region were factors negatively associated with households access to improved drinking water sources. A higher probability of having access to improved toilet facilities: households with heads who had attained higher education, households having better access to improved sources of drinking water and households with better wealth index. While the following households were less likely to have access to improved toilet facilities: households with heads were widowed, households with four to six members, rural households and region.Conclusion The study found that the proportions of households’ access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities in Ethiopia were relatively low, which demands the need to tailor strategies to increase the coverage of access to improved drinking water sources and toilet facilities

Incidence and predictors of major adverse drug events among drug-resistant tuberculosis patients on second-line anti-tuberculosis treatment in Amhara regional state public hospitals; Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Second line anti-tuberculosis drugs are substantially complex, long term, more costly, and more toxic than first line anti-tuberculosis drugs. In Ethiopia, evidence on the incidence and predictors of adverse drug events has been limited. Thus, this study aimed at assessing incidence and predictors of major adverse drug events among drug resistant tuberculosis patients on second line tuberculosis treatment in Amhara Regional State public hospitals, Ethiopia. Methods A multi-center retrospective cohort study was conducted on 570 drug resistant tuberculosis Patients. Data were entered in to EPI-Data version 4.2.0.0 and exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. Proportional hazard assumption was checked. The univariate Weibull regression gamma frailty model was fitted. Cox-Snell residual was used to test goodness of fit and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) for model selection. Hazard ratio with 95% CI was computed and variables with P-value < 0.05 in the multivariable analysis were taken as significant predictors for adverse drug event. Results A total of 570 patients were followed for 5045.09 person-month (PM) observation with a median follow-uptime of 8.23 months (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) =2.66–23.33). The overall incidence rate of major adverse drug events was 5.79 per 100 PM (95% CI: 5.16, 6.49). Incidence rate at the end of 2nd, 4th, and 6th months was 13.73, 9.25, 5.97 events per 100 PM observations, respectively. Age at 25–49 (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 3.36, 95% CI: 1.36, 8.28), and above 50 years (AHR = 5.60, 95% CI: 1.65, 19.05), co-morbid conditions (AHR = 2.74 CI: 1.12, 6.68), and anemia (AHR = 3.25 CI: 1.40, 7.53) were significant predictors of major adverse drug events. Conclusion The incidence rate of major adverse drug events in the early 6 months of treatment was higher than that of the subsequent months. Age above 25 years, base line anemia, and co-morbid conditions were independent predictors of adverse drug events. Thus, addressing significant predictors and strengthening continuous follow-ups are highly recommended in the study setting

Knowledge and attitude of the communities towards COVID-19 and associated factors among Gondar City residents, northwest Ethiopia: A community based cross-sectional study.

BackgroundCOVID-19 is the novel coronavirus responsible for the ongoing global outbreak of acute respiratory disease and viral pneumonia. In order to tackle the devastating condition of the virus, countries need to attack the virus with aggressive and targeted tactics. Thus, to strengthen the COVID-19 mitigation measures and to give rapid response, there is an urgent need to understand the public's knowledge and attitude about of the pandemic at this critical moment.ObjectiveThis study was aimed to assess the knowledge and attitude of communities about COVID-19 and associated factors among Gondar City residents.MethodsA community based cross-sectional study was done among 623 respondents in Gondar city from April 20-27/2020. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire adapted from different literatures. The data were entered using Epi data version 3.1 and then exported into STATA version 14 for analysis. Bi-variable and multivariable binary logistic regression were performed. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI was used to declare statistically significant variables on the basis of p value less than 0.05 in the multivariable binary logistic regression model.ResultsThe overall knowledge and attitude of the community towards COVID19 was 51.85% [95% CI (47.91%-55.78%)] and 53.13% [95% CI (49.20, 57.06%)], respectively. In this study, being married [AOR = 0.60 at 95% CI: (0.42, 0.86)], educational level; primary [AOR = 3.14 at 95% CI: (1.78,5.54)], secondary [AOR = 2.81 at 95% CI: (1.70,4.63)], college and above [AOR = 4.49 at 95% CI: 7.92, 13.98)], and family size [AOR = 1.80, at 95% CI: (1.05, 3.08)] were emerged as statistically significant factors impacting the knowledge of the community about COVID-19. Besides, educational level; primary [AOR = 1.76 at 95% CI: (1.03, 3.01)], secondary [AOR = 1.69 at 95% CI: (1.07, 2.68)], and college & above [AOR = 2.38 at 95% CI: (1.50, 3.79)], and family size; four to six members [AOR = 1.84 at 95% CI (1.27, 2.67)], above seven members [AOR = 1.79 at 95% CI (1.08, 2.96)] were factors identified as significantly attribute for positive attitude of the communities towards COVID-19.ConclusionMore than half of the respondents had better knowledge and attitude regarding COVID-19. Higher educational level and larger family size were significant factors predominantly affecting the knowledge and attitude of the communities towards COVID-19