The response of a floating ice sheet to an accelerating line load

The two-dimensional response of a thin, floating sheet of ice to a line load that accelerates from rest at $t = 0$ to a uniform velocity V for $t \geq T$ is determined through an integral-transform solution of the linearized equations of motion. If $T = 0$ – i.e. if the load is impulsively started with velocity V – the solution exhibits singularities at $V = c_0$, the shallow-water-gravity-wave speed, and $V = c_{\min}$, the minimum speed for transverse motion of the ice, but these singularities are avoided by the acceleration of the load through the critical speeds

Entomological Surveillance as a Cornerstone of Malaria Elimination: A Critical Appraisal

Global capacity for developing new insecticides and vector control products, as well as mathematical models to evaluate their likely impact upon malaria transmission has greatly improved in recent years. Given that a range of new vector control products are now emerging that target a greater diversity of adult mosquito behaviours, it should soon be feasible to effectively tackle a broader range of mosquito species and settings. However, the primary obstacles to further progress towards more effective malaria vector control are now paucities of routine programmatic entomological surveillance, and capacity for data processing, analysis and interpretation in endemic countries. Well-established entomological methods need to be more widely utilized for routine programmatic surveillance of vector behaviours and insecticide susceptibility, the effectiveness of vector control products and processes, and their impacts on mosquito populations. Such programmatic data may also be useful for simulation analyses of mosquito life histories, to identify opportunities for pre-emptively intervening early in the life cycle of mosquitoes, rather than targeting transmission events occurring when they are older. Current obstacles to more effective utilization, archiving and sharing of entomological data largely centre around global inequities of analytical capacity. These prohibitive and unfair imbalances can be addressed by reorienting funding schemes to emphasize south-centred collaborations focused on malaria-endemic countries

Polarized Matrix Infrared Spectra Of Cyclopentadienone - An Important Reactive Intermediate In Combustion And Biomass Pyrolysis

A detailed vibrational analysis of the infrared spectra of cyclopentadienone (C5H4=O and C5D4=O) in rare gas matrices has been carried out. Ab initio coupled-cluster anharmonic force field calculations were used to guide the assignments. Flash pyrolysis of o-phenylene sulfite (C6H4O2SO and C6D4O2SO) was used to provide a molecular beam of cyclopentadienone entrained in the rare gas carrier. The beam was interrogated with time-of-flight photoionization mass spectrometry (TOF-PIMS), confirming the clean, intense production of C5H4=O. Matrix isolation infrared spectroscopy was coupled with 355 nm polarized UV for photo-orientation and linear dichroism experiments to determine the symmetries of the vibrations

Evaluating insecticide resistance across African districts to aid malaria control decisions

Malaria vector control may be compromised by resistance to insecticides in vector populations. Actions to mitigate against resistance rely on surveillance using standard susceptibility tests, but there are large gaps in the monitoring data across Africa. Using a published geostatistical ensemble model, we have generated maps that bridge these gaps and consider the likelihood that resistance exceeds recommended thresholds. Our results show that this model provides more accurate next-year predictions than two simpler approaches. We have used the model to generate district-level maps for the probability that pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae s.l. exceeds the World Health Organization thresholds for susceptibility and confirmed resistance. In addition, we have mapped the three criteria for the deployment of piperonyl butoxide-treated nets that mitigate against the effects of metabolic resistance to pyrethroids. This includes a critical review of the evidence for presence of cytochrome P450-mediated metabolic resistance mechanisms across Africa. The maps for pyrethroid resistance are available on the IR Mapper website, where they can be viewed alongside the latest survey data

Assessing cross-resistance within the pyrethroids in terms of their interactions with key cytochrome P450 enzymes and resistance in vector populations

Background It is important to understand whether the potential impact of pyrethroid resistance on malaria control can be mitigated by switching between different pyrethroids or whether cross-resistance within this insecticide class precludes this approach. Methods Here we assess the relationships among pyrethroids in terms of their binding affinity to, and depletion by, key cytochrome P450 enzymes (hereafter P450s) that are known to confer metabolic pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae (s.l.) and An. funestus, in order to identify which pyrethroids may diverge from the others in their vulnerability to resistance. We then investigate whether these same pyrethroids also diverge from the others in terms of resistance in vector populations. Results We found that the type I and II pyrethroids permethrin and deltamethrin, respectively, are closely related in terms of binding affinity to key P450s, depletion by P450s and resistance within vector populations. Bifenthrin, which lacks the common structural moiety of most pyrethroids, diverged from the other pyrethroids tested in terms of both binding affinity to key P450s and depletion by P450s, but resistance to bifenthrin has rarely been tested in vector populations and was not analysed here. Etofenprox, which also lacks the common structural moiety of most pyrethroids, diverged from the more commonly deployed pyrethroids in terms of binding affinity to key P450s and resistance in vector populations, but did not diverge from these pyrethroids in terms of depletion by the P450s. The analysis of depletion by the P450s indicated that etofenprox may be more vulnerable to metabolic resistance mechanisms in vector populations. In addition, greater resistance to etofenprox was found across Aedes aegypti populations, but greater resistance to this compound was not found in any of the malaria vector species analysed. The results for pyrethroid depletion by anopheline P450s in the laboratory were largely not repeated in the findings for resistance in malaria vector populations. Conclusion Importantly, the prevalence of resistance to the pyrethroids α-cypermethrin, cyfluthrin, deltamethrin, λ-cyhalothrin and permethrin was correlated across malaria vector populations, and switching between these compounds as a tool to mitigate against pyrethroid resistance is not advised without strong evidence supporting a true difference in resistance

The global distribution and burden of dengue.

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation

Dissemination and implementation of an educational tool for veterans on complementary and alternative medicine: a case study

Background Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease. Methods In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. Findings We found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels. Interpretation Our analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support

Analysis-ready datasets for insecticide resistance phenotype and genotype frequency in African malaria vectors

The impact of insecticide resistance in malaria vectors is poorly understood and quantified. Here a series of geospatial datasets for insecticide resistance in malaria vectors are provided, so that trends in resistance in time and space can be quantified, and the impact of resistance found in wild populations on malaria transmission in Africa can be assessed. Specifically, data have been collated and geopositioned for the prevalence of insecticide resistance, as measured by standard bioassays, in representative samples of individual species or species complexes. Data are provided for the Anopheles gambiae species complex, the Anopheles funestus subgroup, and for nine individual vector species. Data are also given for common genetic markers of resistance to support analyses of whether these markers can improve the ability to monitor resistance in low resource settings. Allele frequencies for known resistance-associated markers in the Voltage-gated sodium channel (Vgsc) are provided. In total, eight analysis-ready, standardised, geopositioned datasets encompassing over 20,000 African mosquito collections between 1957 and 2017 are released

malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project

Background The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP’s routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs. Methods and results The current paper reviews the functionality available in malariaAtlas and highlights its utility for spatial epidemiological analysis of malaria. malariaAtlas enables users to freely download, visualise and analyse global malariometric data within R. Currently available data types include: malaria parasite rate and vector occurrence point data; subnational administrative boundary shapefiles; and a large suite of rasters covering a diverse range of metrics related to malaria research. malariaAtlas is here used in two mock analyses to illustrate how this data may be incorporated into a standard R workflow for spatial analysis. Conclusions malariaAtlas is the first open-access R-interface to malariometric data, providing a new and reproducible means of accessing such data within a freely available and commonly used statistical software environment. In this way, the malariaAtlas package aims to contribute to the environment of data-sharing within the malaria research community

Tri-trophic effects of inter- and intra-population variation in defence chemistry of wild cabbage (Brassica oleracea)

The effect of direct chemical defences in plants on the performance of insect herbivores and their natural enemies has received increasing attention over the past 10 years. However, much less is known about the scale at which this variation is generated and maintained, both within and across populations of the same plant species. This study compares growth and development of the large cabbage butterfly, Pieris brassicae, and its gregarious pupal parasitoid, Pteromalus puparum, on three wild populations [Kimmeridge (KIM), Old Harry (OH) and Winspit (WIN)] and two cultivars [Stonehead (ST), and Cyrus (CYR)] of cabbage, Brassica oleracea. The wild populations originate from the coast of Dorset, UK, but grow in close proximity with one another. Insect performance and chemical profiles were made from every plant used in the experiment. Foliar glucosinolates (GS) concentrations were highest in the wild plants in rank order WIN > OH > KIM, with lower levels found in the cultivars. Caterpillar-damaged leaves in the wild cabbages also had higher GS levels than undamaged leaves. Pupal mass in P. brassicae varied significantly among populations of B. oleracea. Moreover, development time in the host and parasitoid were correlated, even though these stages are temporally separated. Parasitoid adult dry mass closely approximated the development of its host. Multivariate statistics revealed a correlation between pupal mass and development time of P. brassicae and foliar GS chemistry, of which levels of neoglucobrassicin appeared to be the most important. Our results show that there is considerable variation in quantitative aspects of defensive chemistry in wild cabbage plants that is maintained at very small spatial scales in nature. Moreover, the performance of the herbivore and its parasitoid were both affected by differences in plant quality