Can Markov-regime switching models improve power price forecasts? Evidence for German daily power prices

Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The study is carried out using German daily spot prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four nonlinear models are used for the forecast study. The resultsof the study suggest that Markov regime-switching models provide better forecasts than linear models. --Electricity spot prices,Markov regime-switching,forecasting

Can Markov-regime switching models improve power price forecasts? Evidence for German daily power prices

Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The study is carried out using German daily spot prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four nonlinear models are used for the forecast study. The resultsof the study suggest that Markov regime-switching models provide better forecasts than linear models

Close-To-Nature Heuristic Design Principles for Future Urban Green Infrastructure

The global nature-climate crisis along with a fundamental shift in world population towards cities and towns has sharpened the focus on the role of urban green infrastructure. Green infrastructure has the potential to deliver cost-effective, nature-based solutions to help mitigate problems of climate change as well as provide improved human well-being through the ecosystem services inherent in landscapes rich in biodiversity. The absence of under-pinning science, specifically complex systems science and ecosystem theory in the design and planning of urban green infrastructure, has limited the capacity of these landscapes to deliver ecosystem services and to effectively demonstrate natural resilience to the impacts of climate change. To meet future challenges of environmental uncertainty and social change, the design of urban green space should embrace an adaptive ecosystem-based approach that includes fully integrated participatory planning and implementation strategies founded on principles of close to nature science. Our article offers two models to inform green space planning: urban green space framework and sustainable urban community network. Both concepts provide the foundation for six ecosystem-based design principles. In a case study on Essex green infrastructure, UK, recommendations made by the Essex Climate Action Commission to transform land management practices are presented as examples of adopting principles of the ecosystem approach and nature-based science. Our article concludes by emphasising the importance of reconnecting society with nature in cities through close-to-nature design of urban green space to secure essential ecosystem services and to build resilience to the impacts of climate change

“A very orderly retreat”: Democratic transition in East Germany, 1989-90

East Germany's 1989-90 democratisation is among the best known of East European transitions, but does not lend itself to comparative analysis, due to the singular way in which political reform and democratic consolidation were subsumed by Germany's unification process. Yet aspects of East Germany's democratisation have proved amenable to comparative approaches. This article reviews the comparative literature that refers to East Germany, and finds a schism between those who designate East Germany's transition “regime collapse” and others who contend that it exemplifies “transition through extrication”. It inquires into the merits of each position and finds in favour of the latter. Drawing on primary and secondary literature, as well as archival and interview sources, it portrays a communist elite that was, to a large extent, prepared to adapt to changing circumstances and capable of learning from “reference states” such as Poland. Although East Germany was the Soviet state in which the positions of existing elites were most threatened by democratic transition, here too a surprising number succeeded in maintaining their position while filing across the bridge to market society. A concluding section outlines the alchemy through which their bureaucratic power was transmuted into property and influence in the “new Germany”

Doha agreement meeting on terminology and definitions in groin pain in athletes.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneous taxonomy of groin injuries in athletes adds confusion to this complicated area. AIM: The 'Doha agreement meeting on terminology and definitions in groin pain in athletes' was convened to attempt to resolve this problem. Our aim was to agree on a standard terminology, along with accompanying definitions. METHODS: A one-day agreement meeting was held on 4 November 2014. Twenty-four international experts from 14 different countries participated. Systematic reviews were performed to give an up-to-date synthesis of the current evidence on major topics concerning groin pain in athletes. All members participated in a Delphi questionnaire prior to the meeting. RESULTS: Unanimous agreement was reached on the following terminology. The classification system has three major subheadings of groin pain in athletes: 1. Defined clinical entities for groin pain: Adductor-related, iliopsoas-related, inguinal-related and pubic-related groin pain. 2. Hip-related groin pain. 3. Other causes of groin pain in athletes. The definitions are included in this paper. CONCLUSIONS: The Doha agreement meeting on terminology and definitions in groin pain in athletes reached a consensus on a clinically based taxonomy using three major categories. These definitions and terminology are based on history and physical examination to categorise athletes, making it simple and suitable for both clinical practice and research

The Freedom Budget at 45: Functional Finance and Full Employment

Forty-five years ago, the A. Philip Randolph Institute issued The Freedom Budget, in which a program for economic transformation was proposed that included a job guarantee for everyone ready and willing to work, a guaranteed income for those unable to work or those who should not be working, and a living wage to lift the working poor out of poverty. Such policies were supported by a host of scholars, civic leaders, and institutions, including the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.; indeed, they provided the cornerstones for King's Poor Peoples' Campaign and economic bill of rights. This paper proposes a New Freedom Budget for full employment based on the principles of functional finance. To counter a major obstacle to such a policy program, the paper includes a primer on three paradigms for understanding government budget deficits and the national debt: the deficit hawk, deficit dove, and functional finance perspectives. Finally, some of the benefits of the job guarantee are outlined, including the ways in which the program may serve as a vehicle for a variety of social policies

Patient-reported outcome measures for hip-related pain: A review of the available evidence and a consensus statement from the International Hip-related Pain Research Network, Zurich 2018

Hip-related pain is a well-recognised complaint among active young and middle-aged active adults. People experiencing hip-related disorders commonly report pain and reduced functional capacity, including difficulties in executing activities of daily living. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are essential to accurately examine and compare the effects of different treatments on disability in those with hip pain. In November 2018, 38 researchers and clinicians working in the field of hip-related pain met in Zurich, Switzerland for the first International Hip-related Pain Research Network meeting. Prior to the meeting, evidence summaries were developed relating to four prioritised themes. This paper discusses the available evidence and consensus process from which recommendations were made regarding the appropriate use of PROMs to assess disability in young and middle-aged active adults with hip-related pain. Our process to gain consensus had five steps: (1) systematic review of systematic reviews; (2) preliminary discussion within the working group; (3) update of the more recent high-quality systematic review and examination of the psychometric properties of PROMs according to established guidelines; (4) formulation of the recommendations considering the limitations of the PROMs derived from the examination of their quality; and (5