Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022–2031

Objective: The aim was to project the health and economic outcomes of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes from Australian public healthcare and societal perspectives over the next decade. Methods: A dynamic multistate model with yearly cycles was developed to project cardiovascular events among Australians with type 2 diabetes aged 40–89 years from 2022 to 2031. CVD risk (myocardial infarction [MI] and stroke) in the type 2 diabetes population was estimated using the 2013 pooled cohort equation, and recurrent cardiovascular event rates in the type 2 diabetes with established CVD population were obtained from the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Costs and utilities were derived from published sources. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total healthcare costs, and total productivity losses. The annual discount rate was 5%, applied to outcomes and costs. Results: Between 2022 and 2031, a total of 83,618 non-fatal MIs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 83,170–84,053) and 58,774 non-fatal strokes (95% UI 58,458–59,013) were projected. Total years of life lived and QALYs (discounted) were projected to be 9,549,487 (95% UI 9,416,423–9,654,043) and 6,632,897 (95% UI 5,065,606–7,591,679), respectively. Total healthcare costs and total lost productivity costs (discounted) were projected to be 9.59 billion Australian dollars (AU$) (95$9.07 billion (95% UI 663.53 million–33.19 billion), respectively. Conclusions: CVD in people with type 2 diabetes will substantially impact the Australian healthcare system and society over the next decade. Future work to investigate different strategies to optimize the control of risk factors for the prevention and treatment of CVD in type 2 diabetes in Australia is warranted

Mortality trends in type 1 diabetes:a multicountry analysis of six population-based cohorts

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Mortality has declined in people with type 1 diabetes in recent decades. We examined how the pattern of decline differs by country, age and sex, and how mortality trends in type 1 diabetes relate to trends in general population mortality. METHODS: We assembled aggregate data on all-cause mortality during the period 2000–2016 in people with type 1 diabetes aged 0–79 years from Australia, Denmark, Latvia, Scotland, Spain (Catalonia) and the USA (Kaiser Permanente Northwest). Data were obtained from administrative sources, health insurance records and registries. All-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) comparing type 1 diabetes with the non-diabetic population, were modelled using Poisson regression, with age and calendar time as quantitative variables, describing the effects using restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Mortality rates were standardised to the age distribution of the aggregate population with type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: All six data sources showed a decline in age- and sex-standardised all-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes from 2000 to 2016 (or a subset thereof), with annual changes in mortality rates ranging from −2.1% (95% CI −2.8%, −1.3%) to −5.8% (95% CI −6.5%, −5.1%). All-cause mortality was higher for male individuals and for older individuals, but the rate of decline in mortality was generally unaffected by sex or age. SMR was higher in female individuals than male individuals, and appeared to peak at ages 40–70 years. SMR declined over time in Denmark, Scotland and Spain, while remaining stable in the other three data sources. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality in people with type 1 diabetes has declined in recent years in most included populations, but improvements in mortality relative to the non-diabetic population are less consistent. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00125-022-05659-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users

Integrating the Biology of Cardiovascular Disease into the Epidemiology of Economic Decision Modelling via Mendelian Randomisation.

Funder: Monash UniversityHealth economic analyses are essential for health services research, providing decision-makers and payers with evidence about the value of interventions relative to their opportunity cost. However, many health economic approaches are still limited, especially regarding the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this article, we discuss some limitations to current health economic models and then outline an approach to address these via the incorporation of genomics into the design of health economic models for CVD. We propose that when a randomised clinical trial is not possible or practical, health economic models for primary prevention of CVD can be based on Mendelian randomisation analyses, a technique to assess causality in observational data. We discuss the advantages of this approach, such as integrating well-known disease biology into health economic models and how this may overcome current statistical approaches to assessing the benefits of interventions. We argue that this approach may provide the economic argument for integrating genomics into clinical practice and the efficient targeting of newer therapeutics, transforming our approach to the primary prevention of CVD, thereby moving from reactive to preventive healthcare. We end by discussing some limitations and potential pitfalls of this approach

Trends in diabetes-related foot disease hospitalizations and amputations in Australia, 2010 to 2019

Aim: To determine trends in the incidence of hospitalizations and amputations for diabetes-related foot disease (DFD) in Australia. Methods: We included 70,766 people with type 1, and 1,087,706 with type 2 diabetes from the Australian diabetes registry from 2010 to 2019, linked to hospital admissions databases. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were summarized as annual percent changes (APC). Results: In people with type 1 diabetes, total DFD hospitalizations increased from 20.8 to 30.5 per 1,000 person-years between 2010 and 2019 (APC: 5.1% (95% CI: 3.5, 6.8)), including increases for ulceration (13.3% (2.9, 24.7)), osteomyelitis (5.6% (2.7, 8.7)), peripheral arterial disease (7.7% (3.7, 11.9)), and neuropathy (8.7% (5.5, 12.0)). In people with type 2 diabetes, DFD hospitalizations changed from 18.6 to 24.8 per 1,000 person-years between 2010 and 2019 (APC: 4.5% (3.6, 5.4); 2012–2019), including increases for ulceration (8.7% (4.0, 13.7)), cellulitis (5.4% (3.7, 7.0)), osteomyelitis (6.7% (5.7, 7.7)), and neuropathy (6.9% (5.2, 8.5)). Amputations were stable in type 1, whereas in type 2, above knee amputations decreased (-6.0% (-9.1, −2.7). Adjustment for diabetes duration attenuated the magnitude of most increases, but many remained significant. Conclusions: DFD hospitalizations increased markedly in Australia, mainly driven by ulceration and neuropathy, highlighting the importance of managing DFD to prevent hospitalizations.</p

Global trends in the incidence of hospital admissions for diabetes-related foot disease and amputations: a review of national rates in the 21st century

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is a leading cause of hospital admissions and amputations. Global trends in diabetes-related amputations have been previously reviewed, but trends in hospital admissions for multiple other DFD conditions have not. This review analysed the published incidence of hospital admissions for DFD conditions (ulceration, infection, peripheral artery disease [PAD], neuropathy) and diabetes-related amputations (minor and major) in nationally representative populations.METHODS: PubMed and Embase were searched for peer-reviewed publications between 1 January 2001 and 5 May 2022 using the terms 'diabetes', 'DFD', 'amputation', 'incidence' and 'nation'. Search results were screened and publications reporting the incidence of hospital admissions for a DFD condition or a diabetes-related amputation among a population representative of a country were included. Key data were extracted from included publications and initial rates, end rates and relative trends over time summarised using medians (ranges).RESULTS: Of 2527 publications identified, 71 met the eligibility criteria, reporting admission rates for 27 countries (93% high-income countries). Of the included publications, 14 reported on DFD and 66 reported on amputation (nine reported both). The median (range) incidence of admissions per 1000 person-years with diabetes was 16.3 (8.4-36.6) for DFD conditions (5.1 [1.3-7.6] for ulceration; 5.6 [3.8-9.0] for infection; 2.5 [0.9-3.1] for PAD) and 3.1 (1.4-10.3) for amputations (1.2 [0.2-4.2] for major; 1.6 [0.3-4.3] for minor). The proportions of the reported populations with decreasing, stable and increasing admission trends were 80%, 20% and 0% for DFD conditions (50%, 0% and 50% for ulceration; 50%, 17% and 33% for infection; 67%, 0% and 33% for PAD) and 80%, 7% and 13% for amputations (80%, 17% and 3% for major; 52%, 15% and 33% for minor), respectively.CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest that hospital admission rates for all DFD conditions are considerably higher than those for amputations alone and, thus, the more common practice of reporting admission rates only for amputations may substantially underestimate the burden of DFD. While major amputation rates appear to be largely decreasing, this is not the case for hospital admissions for DFD conditions or minor amputation in many populations. However, true global conclusions are limited because of a lack of consistent definitions used to identify admission rates for DFD conditions and amputations, alongside a lack of data from low- and middle-income countries. We recommend that these areas are addressed in future studies.REGISTRATION: This review was registered in the Open Science Framework database ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/4TZFJ ).</p

Global trends in the incidence of hospital admissions for diabetes-related foot disease and amputations: a review of national rates in the 21st century

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is a leading cause of hospital admissions and amputations. Global trends in diabetes-related amputations have been previously reviewed, but trends in hospital admissions for multiple other DFD conditions have not. This review analysed the published incidence of hospital admissions for DFD conditions (ulceration, infection, peripheral artery disease [PAD], neuropathy) and diabetes-related amputations (minor and major) in nationally representative populations. Methods: PubMed and Embase were searched for peer-reviewed publications between 1 January 2001 and 5 May 2022 using the terms ‘diabetes’, ‘DFD’, ‘amputation’, ‘incidence’ and ‘nation’. Search results were screened and publications reporting the incidence of hospital admissions for a DFD condition or a diabetes-related amputation among a population representative of a country were included. Key data were extracted from included publications and initial rates, end rates and relative trends over time summarised using medians (ranges). Results: Of 2527 publications identified, 71 met the eligibility criteria, reporting admission rates for 27 countries (93% high-income countries). Of the included publications, 14 reported on DFD and 66 reported on amputation (nine reported both). The median (range) incidence of admissions per 1000 person-years with diabetes was 16.3 (8.4–36.6) for DFD conditions (5.1 [1.3–7.6] for ulceration; 5.6 [3.8–9.0] for infection; 2.5 [0.9–3.1] for PAD) and 3.1 (1.4–10.3) for amputations (1.2 [0.2–4.2] for major; 1.6 [0.3–4.3] for minor). The proportions of the reported populations with decreasing, stable and increasing admission trends were 80%, 20% and 0% for DFD conditions (50%, 0% and 50% for ulceration; 50%, 17% and 33% for infection; 67%, 0% and 33% for PAD) and 80%, 7% and 13% for amputations (80%, 17% and 3% for major; 52%, 15% and 33% for minor), respectively. Conclusions/interpretation: These findings suggest that hospital admission rates for all DFD conditions are considerably higher than those for amputations alone and, thus, the more common practice of reporting admission rates only for amputations may substantially underestimate the burden of DFD. While major amputation rates appear to be largely decreasing, this is not the case for hospital admissions for DFD conditions or minor amputation in many populations. However, true global conclusions are limited because of a lack of consistent definitions used to identify admission rates for DFD conditions and amputations, alongside a lack of data from low- and middle-income countries. We recommend that these areas are addressed in future studies. Registration: This review was registered in the Open Science Framework database (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/4TZFJ). Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]