Left, Right, Left: Income and Political Dynamics in Transition Economies

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America's political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies.income dynamics, redistributive politics, polarization, Bayesian learning, Latin America

Computational Methods for OI-Modules

Computational commutative algebra has become an increasingly popular area of research. Central to the theory is the notion of a Gröbner basis, which may be thought of as a nonlinear generalization of Gaussian elimination. In 2019, Nagel and Römer introduced FI- and OI-modules over FI- and OI-algebras, which provide a framework for studying sequences of related modules defined over sequences of related polynomial rings. In particular, they laid the foundations of a theory of Gröbner bases for certain classes of OI-modules. In this dissertation we develop an OI-analog of Buchberger\u27s algorithm in order to compute such Gröbner bases, as well as an OI-analog of Schreyer\u27s theorem to compute their modules of syzygies. We also give an application of our results to the computation of free OI-resolutions, and showcase our Macaulay2 package OIGroebnerBases.m2\u27\u27 which implements these constructions. Lastly, we show how our results can be tweaked to compute free FI-resolutions

Motor Carrier Scheduling Practices and Their Influence on Driver Fatigue

The primary objective of this report is to develop a better understanding of how the scheduling practices of motor carrier firms affect driver fatigue. The basis of this empirical research is a commercial driver fatigue model that includes driving environment (i.e., regularity of time, trip control, and quality of rest), economic pressures exerted on drivers (from customers, carriers, and the drivers themselves) and company safety practices as key factors in explaining driver fatigue. The model utilizes two measures of fatigue: frequency of close calls due to fatigue and driver perceptions of fatigue as a problem. Crash involvement is used to evaluate general safety performance. Three separate studies were conducted. First, the influence of driving environments alone on fatigue among over-the-road truck drivers was tested through a survey of 502 drivers at five geographically dispersed truck stops. A typology of driving environments was developed and the percent of drivers in each category was determined. It was found that a large number of drivers are in the “high fatigue risk” categories. Regression analysis identified starting the work week tired and longer than expected loading and unloading time as significantly related to both measures of fatigue. Regularity of time, regularity of route, and hours of uninterrupted sleep were each statistically significant factors for one fatigue measure. Next, the complete model was tested on a random sample of 279 drivers at 116 trucking companies and 122 drivers at 66 motor coach companies, which was then stratified on the basis of safety performance (i.e., SAFESTAT ratings). Data for these two studies were generated from surveys of drivers, safety directors, dispatchers, and top management at the sample firms. In the truck company study, starting the workweek tired was the single most significant factor related to fatigue. Other significant fatigue-influencing factors were difficulty in finding a place to rest and shippers’ and receivers’ scheduling requirements (including loading and unloading). Company safety practices that mitigated driver fatigue were carrier assistance with loading and unloading, carrier efforts to minimize nighttime driving, and driver voluntary attendance at corporate safety and training meetings. In the motor coach company study, the most significant factors related to driver fatigue were starting the work week tired, driving tired to make a good income, and pressure on drivers to accept trips. Two safety measures – drivers’ perceptions of their company’s safe drivingculture and policies, or attempts to minimize nighttime driving – mitigated some of the factors that adversely affect driver fatigue

Augmented Reality to Teach Activities of Daily Living to Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Who Live Independently

Post-secondary educational opportunities continue to grow for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), with many providing options for independent living. This has increased the already high need to teach independent living skills to this population. Complex learning needs within this community of learners often necessitate unique teaching approaches. A single case, multiple probes across behaviors design was used to determine the effectiveness of an augmented reality (AR) video modeling system used on a mobile device as a learning approach. The goal of the study was to help participants living independently learn new skills and to determine the social acceptability of the system. Three individuals, ages 18 – 21, attending a post-secondary program on a large college campus, participated in the study. Results indicate that the AR video models were highly effective in teaching all participants new skills while also increasing their independence when completing new tasks. In addition, the AR video models were a socially acceptable means for students to learn and maintain the skills developed during the study

FRANCE AND THE UNITED KINGDOM: FACTORS INFLUENCING POSITIONS ON MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Following the demise of several critical U.S.-Russian bilateral treaties, the world now faces the most consequential nuclear arms-control crisis in decades. If the desired end goal is to move toward global disarmament, France and the U.K. have several economic, political, and military avenues they could pursue. This thesis analyzes British and French positions on nuclear arms-control and seeks to identify what has precluded them from entering into meaningful discussions. This thesis considers nuclear policies, statistics, official records, publications, and previous case studies on third-party arms control. At this time, there is little optimism for France and the U.K. to have a significant impact on multilateral arms-control negotiations. There are many geopolitical, economic, and security dilemmas that are currently hindering a breakthrough in negotiations, and a disparity in the number of nuclear weapons possessed between the U.S. and Russia and all other nuclear weapons states is an impasse that hinders European nuclear weapon states. Additionally, there is a strong sense of nuclear nationalism inherent to both nations that precludes them from initiating disarmament measures. Achieving meaningful multilateral arms control must begin with small, mutually reinforcing, and incremental measures. Promoting a multilateral forum to increase transparency and build confidence would set the stage for more ambitious and meaningful multilateral measures in the future.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

The Political Economy of Inclusive Rural Growth

Commentators on the ‘East Asian Miracle’ of inclusive rural growth have often pointed toward shared growth policies. But why were these policies not chosen elsewhere? This paper shows that economies with a stronger middle class may sustain higher productivity through public good provision. We model voters who invest in either subsistence or technologies in which public goods complement private capital. Investment and technology choices vary with wealth and the level of public goods enforced by political lobbies. We show that increased productive possibilities, such as those of an emerging middle class, can further power reforms when money matters in politics

Truck Driving Environments and Their Influence on Driver Fatigue and Crash Rates

The development of a typology of commercial vehicle driving environments, estimate of the percentage of drivers falling into each type of driving environment, and driving environment effects on driver fatigue are described. A model of commercial motor vehicle driver fatigue, based on literature sources and focus groups of industry professionals, is proposed. Three driving-environment factors (regularity of time, trip control, and quality of rest), comprising 25 indicators, are included in the model. Data were collected via a nationwide survey of 502 randomly selected over-the-road commercial truck drivers. Data analysis revealed 12 driving-environment indicators to be good predictors of fatigue and crash outcomes. Various 2x2x2 driving-environment typologies were created by using different high-low combinations of these 12 indicators. A typology based on the single best predictors of fatigue and crash outcomes from each driving-environment factor was selected for examination (i.e., favorable and unfavorable combinations of driving the same hours, waiting longer than expected for loads, and starting the workweek tired). The percentage of drivers working in each type of driving environment ranged from 5.2 percent to 20.1 percent. Additionally, the typology was significantly related to frequency of close calls and perceptions of fatigue. The 12 driving-environment indicators collectively accounted for 5 percent and 23 percent of the variability in close calls and fatigue perceptions, respectively (p ≥ .001), and 2 percent of the variability in crash involvement (p ≥ .07). Implications for fatigue management are also discussed

Left, right, left: income and political dynamics in transition economies

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America’s political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies

Model Block Press

The Center for Vocational Building Technology came to the Mechanical Engineering department at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo with a project to create a new, less expensive model block press than their current BP9 design. This press would produce ¼ scale model compressed earth blocks to be sold as souvenirs and used in demonstrations for constructing buildings. After analyzing the design of the current block presses, JCM came up with the BP10 design. The BP10 operates similarly to the larger block presses, but will cost significantly less to produce and will have some of the design features enhanced to make it easier to use