The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate

The purchasing power parity puzzle relates to the adjustment of real exchange rates. Real exchange rates are extremely volatile, suggesting that temporary shocks emanate from the monetary sector. But the half-life of real exchange rate deviations is extremely large -- 2.5 to 5 years. This half-life seems too large to be explained by the slow adjustment of nominal prices. We offer a different interpretation. We maintain that nominal exchange rates and prices need not converge at the same rate, as is implicit in rational-expectations sticky-price models of the exchange rate. Evidence from an unobserved components model for nominal prices and nominal exchange rates that imposes relative purchasing power parity in the long run indicates that nominal exchange rates converge much more slowly than nominal prices. The real puzzle is why nominal exchange rates converge so slowly.

Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks

In this paper, we propose a new approach to constructing confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks. This approach involves using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate marginal “fiducial” distributions of break dates from the likelihood function. We compare our proposed approach to asymptotic and bootstrap confidence sets and find that it performs best in terms of producing short confidence sets with accurate coverage rates. Our approach also has the advantages of i) being broadly applicable to different patterns of structural breaks, ii) being computationally efficient, and iii) requiring only the ability to evaluate the likelihood function over parameter values, thus allowing for many possible distributional assumptions for the data. In our application, we investigate the nature and timing of structural breaks in postwar U.S. Real GDP. Based on marginal fiducial distributions, we find much tighter 95% confidence sets for the timing of the so-called “Great Moderation” than has been reported in previous studies.Fiducial Inference; Bootstrap Methods; Structural Breaks; Confidence Intervals and Sets; Coverage Accuracy and Expected Length; Markov-chain Monte Carlo;

Present-day stress orientations and tectonic provinces of the NW Borneo collisional margin

Extent: 15p.Borehole failure observed on image and dipmeter logs from 55 petroleum wells across the NW Borneo collisional margin were used to determine maximum horizontal stress (σH) orientations; combined with seismic and outcrop data, they define seven tectonic provinces. The Baram Delta–Deepwater Fold-Thrust Belt exhibits three tectonic provinces: its inner shelf inverted province (σH is NW-SE, margin-normal), its outer shelf extension province (σH is NE-SW, margin-parallel), and its slope to basin floor compression province (σH is NW-SE, margin-normal). In the inverted province, σH reflects inversion of deltaic normal faults. The σH orientations in the extension and compression provinces reflect deltaic gravitational tectonics. The shale and minibasin provinces have been recognized in offshore Sabah. In the shale province, σH is N010°E, which aligns around the boundary of a massif of mobile shale. Currently, no data are available to determine σH in the minibasin province. In the Balingian province, σH is ESE-WNW, reflecting ESE absolute Sunda plate motions due to the absence of a thick detachment seen elsewhere in NW Borneo. The Central Luconia province demonstrates poorly constrained and variable σH orientations. These seven provinces result from the heterogeneous structural and stratigraphic development of the NW Borneo margin and formed due to complex collisional tectonics and the varied distribution and thicknesses of stratigraphic packages.Rosalind C. King, Mark R. P. Tingay, Richard R. Hillis, Christopher K. Morley, and James Clar

Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks

In this paper, we propose a new approach to constructing confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks. This approach involves using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate marginal “fiducial” distributions of break dates from the likelihood function. We compare our proposed approach to asymptotic and bootstrap confidence sets and find that it performs best in terms of producing short confidence sets with accurate coverage rates. Our approach also has the advantages of i) being broadly applicable to different patterns of structural breaks, ii) being computationally efficient, and iii) requiring only the ability to evaluate the likelihood function over parameter values, thus allowing for many possible distributional assumptions for the data. In our application, we investigate the nature and timing of structural breaks in postwar U.S. Real GDP. Based on marginal fiducial distributions, we find much tighter 95% confidence sets for the timing of the so-called “Great Moderation” than has been reported in previous studies

Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks

In this paper, we propose a new approach to constructing confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks. This approach involves using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate marginal “fiducial” distributions of break dates from the likelihood function. We compare our proposed approach to asymptotic and bootstrap confidence sets and find that it performs best in terms of producing short confidence sets with accurate coverage rates. Our approach also has the advantages of i) being broadly applicable to different patterns of structural breaks, ii) being computationally efficient, and iii) requiring only the ability to evaluate the likelihood function over parameter values, thus allowing for many possible distributional assumptions for the data. In our application, we investigate the nature and timing of structural breaks in postwar U.S. Real GDP. Based on marginal fiducial distributions, we find much tighter 95% confidence sets for the timing of the so-called “Great Moderation” than has been reported in previous studies

Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks

In this paper, we propose a new approach to constructing confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks. This approach involves using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate marginal “fiducial” distributions of break dates from the likelihood function. We compare our proposed approach to asymptotic and bootstrap confidence sets and find that it performs best in terms of producing short confidence sets with accurate coverage rates. Our approach also has the advantages of i) being broadly applicable to different patterns of structural breaks, ii) being computationally efficient, and iii) requiring only the ability to evaluate the likelihood function over parameter values, thus allowing for many possible distributional assumptions for the data. In our application, we investigate the nature and timing of structural breaks in postwar U.S. Real GDP. Based on marginal fiducial distributions, we find much tighter 95% confidence sets for the timing of the so-called “Great Moderation” than has been reported in previous studies

Evidence-based models of care for the treatment of alcohol use disorder in primary health care settings : Protocol for systematic review

Background Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is highly prevalent and accounts globally for 1.6% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among females and 6.0% of DALYs among males. Effective treatments for AUDs are available but are not commonly practiced in primary health care. Furthermore, referral to specialized care is often not successful and patients that do seek treatment are likely to have developed more severe dependence. A more cost-efficient health care model is to treat less severe AUD in a primary care setting before the onset of greater dependence severity. Few models of care for the management of AUD in primary health care have been developed and with limited implementation. This proposed systematic review will synthesize and evaluate differential models of care for the management of AUD in primary health care settings. Methods We will conduct a systematic review to synthesize studies that evaluate the effectiveness of models of care in the treatment of AUD in primary health care. A comprehensive search approach will be conducted using the following databases; MEDLINE (1946 to present), PsycINFO (1806 to present), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (1991 to present), and Embase (1947 to present). Reference searches of relevant reviews and articles will be conducted. Similarly, a gray literature search will be done with the help of Google and the gray matter tool which is a checklist of health-related sites organized by topic. Two researchers will independently review all titles and abstracts followed by full-text review for inclusion. The planned method of extracting data from articles and the critical appraisal will also be done in duplicate. For the critical appraisal, the Cochrane risk of bias tool 2.0 will be used. Discussion This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to guide improvement of design and implementation of evidence-based models of care for the treatment of alcohol use disorder in primary health care settings. The evidence will define which models are most promising and will guide further research. Protocol registration number PROSPERO CRD42019120293

Evidence based models of care for the treatment of alcohol use disorder in primary health care settings : A systematic review

Background Pharmacological and behavioural treatments for alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are effective but the uptake is limited. Primary care could be a key setting for identification and continuous care for AUD due to accessibility, low cost and acceptability to patients. We aimed to synthesise the literature regarding differential models of care for the management of AUD in primary health care settings. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles published worldwide (1998-present) using the following databases; Medline, PsycINFO, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Embase. The Grey Matters Tool guided the grey literature search. We selected randomised controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of a primary care model in the management of AUD. Two researchers independently assessed and then reached agreement on the included studies. We used the Cochrane risk of bias tool 2.0 for the critical appraisal. Results Eleven studies (4186 participants) were included. We categorised the studies into ‘lower’ versus ‘higher’ intensity given the varying intensity of clinical care evaluated across the studies. Significant differences in treatment uptake were reported by most studies. The uptake of AUD medication was reported in 5 out of 6 studies that offered AUD medication. Three studies reported a significantly higher uptake of AUD medication in the intervention group. A significant reduction in alcohol use was reported in two out of the five studies with lower intensity of care, and three out of six studies with higher intensity of care. Conclusion Our results suggest that models of care in primary care settings can increase treatment uptake (e.g. psychosocial and/or pharmacotherapy) although results for alcohol-related outcomes were mixed. More research is required to determine which specific patient groups are suitable for AUD treatment in primary health care settings and to identify which models and components are most effective. Trial Registration PROSPERO: CRD42019120293