Slow Growth, Trade Liberalisation and the Mexican Disease: A medium-term macroeconomic model with an application to Mexico

The purpose of this paper is to analyse Mexico's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, from the vantage point of the country's recent development. The analysis is carried out within a formal model for the determination of the rates of employment and inflation under conditions of external and internal balance. In equilibrium, the real wage and the rates of employment and inflation depend inter alia on the level of labour productivity, the ratio of foreign debt to domestic output, and the foreign trade regime. Econometric tests based on Mexican data support the model's basic postulates and, in addition, reveal the presence of structural change, linked to trade reform, in the trade balance and the manufactures' productivity growth equations. The macroeconomic implications of such parameter changes are discussed with the help of the analytical model developed.

Efeitos do aumento da produção de petróleo sobre o potencial de crescimento da economia brasileira: um modelo voltado para a projeção (2013-2020)

ResumoO artigo provê um modelo voltado para a projeção do potencial de crescimento da economia brasileira, para o período 2013-2020, com particular ênfase na resposta ao aumento previsto para a produção do setor petróleo. Inspirado nos modelos de crescimento de dois e de três hiatos, o modelo em questão inova ao propor conjuntamente: a) tornar endógena a resposta da política econômica, sob o suposto de que o atual "tripé" macroeconômico (câmbio flexível administrado, metas de inflação e de superávit primário) será mantido durante toda a trajetória da simulação; b) tratar separadamente os efeitos do setor petróleo sobre o balanço de pagamentos; e c) verificar a compatibilidade entre a taxa de investimento pública permitida pela meta de superávit primário e aquela necessária para manter o crescimento do estoque de capital em linha com o crescimento do PIB real

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector