Climatology of Synoptic Non-Gaussian Meteorological Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2018

The analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the number of non-Gaussian extreme anomalies of climatic parameters was carried out for both the initial time series and synoptic variability in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1979–2018, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. There are predominantly three types of empirical distribution densities at 850 hPa, each characterizing the processes of advective and convective heat transfer. At the beginning of the 21st century, compared to the end of the 20th century, there was an increase in the number of anomalies in vertical wind speed and specific humidity for the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, there is an increase in the number of zonal wind speed anomalies in the low and middle latitudes. Regions with the maximum number of anomalies are primarily located over the continents, while for vertical wind speed anomalies, they are predominantly over the oceans. The application of R/S analysis and multifractal analysis has established that the identified tendencies (which are persistent processes) will continue in the identified regions. The time series of non-Gaussian anomalies (both initial and synoptic scales) exhibit a long-term memory of approximately four years, and synoptic extreme anomalies were found to be more predictable

Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of lightning activity and wildfires in Western Siberia during 2016-2021

This research compares the spatial and temporal variability of lightning activity associated with wildfires in several natural geographical zones ofWestern Siberia from 2016–2021. The study was based on the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and The Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) for the warm (April–October) season. It was revealed that areas of hotspots and lightning activity most often coincide in the southwestern part of the territory (near Khanty-Mansiysk and Tyumen), in the mountain regions (Kuznetsk Alatau, Altai), and in the northern part of Kazakhstan. Maximum values of lightning occur in July for the whole territory of Western Siberia, and maximum values of hotspots occur in April in the central and southern regions of Western Siberia. Despite the largest number of fires in the south of the territory, the probability of ignition from lightning over the whole warm season is higher in the northern parts ofWestern Siberia; it reaches up to 30%. Thus, the revealed lightning–fire association allows us to better understand this process in the region that will be useful in the prediction of the potential fire danger in different natural zones

Dynamics of extreme climatic characteristics and trends of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the territory of Western Siberia

Data from ERA5 reanalysis and observations at meteorological stations are used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of extreme values of climatic and dangerous meteorological phenomena for the territory of Western Siberia over 1979-2020, and to identify the tendencies of their future variations during the late twenty-first century against the background of global climate change. The combined analysis of the derived estimates made it possible to identify the centers of risk in these areas and to determine the trends in their development. The air temperature is found to increase in the period 2011-2020 throughout Western Siberia, while the amount of precipitation and wind speed do so predominantly in its northern areas. Extreme precipitation amounts increase during summer in the entire area, except in mountainous areas in its southeastern part. In addition, areas affected by heavy rainfall are becoming smaller in the region and are located mainly in the south and along its western boundary. The results of the INM-CM5.0 model calculations revealed the response of the regional climate system to the ongoing global changes: the increasing trend in the number of extreme events in the region will persist until 2100