Phosphorus in the landscape: diffuse sources to surface waters. Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation. Occasional Paper 16/98

The National Eutrophication Management Program (NEMP) and Environment Australia convened a workshop to develop a coherent overview of the sources and transport of diffuse phosphorus in Australian catchments based on the latest knowledge. The Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation (LWRRDC) and the Murray–Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) jointly fund NEMP. A select group of scientists attended the workshop and developed a coherent statement about phosphorus sources and transport in Australian catchments. The group did not extend this statement to include recommended management practices. This paper reports the findings from the workshop. State governments have developed algal and nutrient management strategies in response to concerns about the frequency and severity of algal blooms, including cyanobacterial blooms, in Australian rivers and estuaries. There is an emphasis on phosphorus management, particularly in rural environments, now that nutrients are recognised as fundamental drivers of algal growth. Best management practices (BMPs) were developed for these strategies on the basis of the limited scientific evidence that was available at the time. The absence of a significant body of Australian information meant that there was a reliance on overseas research findings to develop such BMPs. A number of research projects have been completed in recent years on the sources and transport of nutrients in Australian catchments that challenge the Northern Hemisphere model of nutrient behaviour and will have implications for future development of BMPs. Principal conclusions 1. The studies presented in the workshop demonstrate that control of phosphorus entering surface waters must start with land management that minimises accelerated erosion and overland flow of water potentially rich in phosphorus. Heavily grazed lands, irrigation areas and intensive animal and horticultural industries are at risk, especially at the onset of rainy seasons and during periods of high rain intensity. 2. The transport of phosphorus from diffuse sources in landscapes can occur in both dissolved and particulate form. This can be due to different mobilisation and delivery mechanisms operating in different environments. Phosphorus mobilisation and delivery 1. Diffuse sources of phosphorus are the dominant component in most Australian catchments. Episodic rainfall is responsible for the bulk of phosphorus loss from the landscape. The mechanisms vary with each catchment. 2. Particulate phosphorus is carried by overland flow, resulting from run-off and erosion. In high to medium rainfall environments most is carried as filterable reactive phosphorus of less than 0.45 microns. Although most of the coarser materials from high parts of the landscape are deposited before they reach a watercourse, the particles ultimately carried into drainage lines are phosphorus-enriched by processes of sorting and filtration. 3. In river systems studied in the Murray–Darling Basin river sediments that originate from gully erosion and stream-bank collapse of readily dispersible soils carry most of the diffuse-source phosphorus. It is very likely that most of the phosphorus on these sediments is ‘native’ phosphorus coming from subsoils. 2 Phosphorus in the landscape: diffuse sources to surface waters Although the major episodes of gully formation occurred several decades ago, inputs of sediments and phosphorus from these sources continue at a high rate. Reduced input rates can best be achieved by targeting the gullies themselves and stabilising them by conservation works—particularly in small headwater catchments. 4. In larger dry-land catchments, fertiliser phosphorus is generally not an important component of phosphorus loss/export, although it may be locally significant. 5. Local soil, vegetation, terrain and climate conditions dictate whether surface erosion is the dominant source of phosphorus into a watercourse. To describe phosphorus exports from a specific landscape by surface erosion requires local studies. However, guidelines can be developed for management purposes to identify and minimise sources of phosphorus carried by overland flow. 6. Potential sources of diffuse phosphorus run-off occur wherever fertilisers are applied to soils that are already wet at the surface, or that may become wet by seasonally emerging groundwater. The magnitude of the loss will be greater if the application occurs on bare soils, or if it is next to a waterbody. 7. Dissolved phosphorus (from fertilisers and other sources) is readily mobilised and transported directly where the soil has both little ability to bind the phosphorus and a high leaching rate, as occurs in sandy regions of high rainfall around the continent. Phosphorus-laden water then travels via overland or shallow sub-surface flow to surface waterbodies quite quickly, unless other processes impede the movement. If the dissolved phosphorus moves via deep groundwater the time scales for its reappearance in surface water are generally large. 8. Dissolved phosphorus may also enter tributary waterbodies in headwater catchments via shortcircuit pathways, such as macropores, but this is only likely to be important over distances of hundreds of metres. However, these sub-surface pathways may reduce the effectiveness of local management practices that do not take them into account. 9. Large amounts of dissolved phosphorus are also being produced from irrigated dairy pastures (and possibly from other irrigation enterprises also). There is little or no sub-surface movement because soils are generally high in clay and flat. Phosphorus-laden water is pumped or drained across the land surface to channels. The time scale of dissolved phosphorus movement is comparable with the time with which the water itself moves. Once within drainage channels and streambeds the dissolved phosphorus fraction may be partially re-adsorbed onto particulates. 10. Large quantities of dissolved phosphorus are found in surface waters next to areas where animal excreta or over-fertilised market gardens give rise to phosphorus in surface wastewater that flows directly into waterways. These situations are most likely to arise in catchments that contain mixtures of horticultural, dairying, hobby-farming and similar land uses. Where farm dams are abundant a significant fraction of this phosphorus will not enter streams but will be retarded or retained in the landscape

The Irish Rover: Phil Lynott and the Search for Identity

Phil Lynott, the lead singer of the rock band Thin Lizzy, was a complex character. An illegitimate black child who grew up in a working-class, Catholic district of Dublin, Ireland in the 1950s, Lynott spent his life searching for a sense of belonging, something which he explored through rock and roll. This study uses Lynott’s song lyrics to investigate his quest for identity. In particular, it identifies the many recurring themes and archetypes in his music that offered multifaceted self-portraits of his internal conflict between being black, Irish, illegitimate, a rockstar, a Lothario, a son, a father, and a husband, all at the same time

The mediation of social influences on smoking cessation and awareness of the early signs of lung cancer

Background Whilst there has been no clear consensus on the potential for earlier diagnosis of lung cancer, recent research has suggested that the time between symptom onset and consultation can be long enough to plausibly affect prognosis. In this article, we present findings from a qualitative study involving in-depth interviews with patients who had been diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 11), and people who were at heightened risk of developing the disease (n = 14). Methods A grounded theory methodology was drawn upon to conduct thematic and narrative based approaches to analysis. Results The paper focuses on three main themes which emerged from the study: i) fatalism and resignation in pathways to help-seeking and the process of diagnosis; ii) Awareness of smoking risk and response to cessation information and advice. iii) The role of social and other networks on help-seeking. Key findings included: poor awareness among participants of the symptoms of lung cancer; ambivalence about the dangers of smoking; the perception of lung cancer as part of a homogenisation of multiple illnesses; close social networks as a key trigger in help-seeking. Conclusions We suggest that future smoking cessation and lung cancer awareness campaigns could usefully capitalise on the influence of close social networks, and would benefit from taking a ‘softer’ approach

COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and contacts in the UK

The physiological effects of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) are well documented, yet the behavioural effects not well known. Risk compensation suggests that gains in personal safety, as a result of vaccination, are offset by increases in risky behaviour, such as socialising, commuting and working outside the home. This is potentially important because transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contacts, which could be amplified by vaccine-related risk compensation. Here, we show that behaviours were overall unrelated to personal vaccination, but—adjusting for variation in mitigation policies—were responsive to the level of vaccination in the wider population: individuals in the UK were risk compensating when rates of vaccination were rising. This effect was observed across four nations of the UK, each of which varied policies autonomously

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection during multiple Omicron variant waves in the UK general population

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections increased substantially after Omicron variants emerged. Large-scale community-based comparisons across multiple Omicron waves of reinfection characteristics, risk factors, and protection afforded by previous infection and vaccination, are limited. Here we studied ~45,000 reinfections from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey and quantified the risk of reinfection in multiple waves, including those driven by BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, and BQ.1/CH.1.1/XBB.1.5 variants. Reinfections were associated with lower viral load and lower percentages of self-reporting symptoms compared with first infections. Across multiple Omicron waves, estimated protection against reinfection was significantly higher in those previously infected with more recent than earlier variants, even at the same time from previous infection. Estimated protection against Omicron reinfections decreased over time from the most recent infection if this was the previous or penultimate variant (generally within the preceding year). Those 14–180 days after receiving their most recent vaccination had a lower risk of reinfection than those >180 days from their most recent vaccination. Reinfection risk was independently higher in those aged 30–45 years, and with either low or high viral load in their most recent previous infection. Overall, the risk of Omicron reinfection is high, but with lower severity than first infections; both viral evolution and waning immunity are independently associated with reinfection

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in 45,965 adults from the general population of the United Kingdom

We report that in a cohort of 45,965 adults, who were receiving either the ChAdOx1 or the BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, in those who had no prior infection with SARS-CoV-2, seroconversion rates and quantitative antibody levels after a single dose were lower in older individuals, especially in those aged >60 years. Two vaccine doses achieved high responses across all ages. Antibody levels increased more slowly and to lower levels with a single dose of ChAdOx1 compared with a single dose of BNT162b2, but waned following a single dose of BNT162b2 in older individuals. In descriptive latent class models, we identified four responder subgroups, including a ‘low responder’ group that more commonly consisted of people aged >75 years, males and individuals with long-term health conditions. Given our findings, we propose that available vaccines should be prioritized for those not previously infected and that second doses should be prioritized for individuals aged >60 years. Further data are needed to better understand the extent to which quantitative antibody responses are associated with vaccine-mediated protection

Antibody responses and correlates of protection in the general population after two doses of the ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines

Antibody responses are an important part of immunity after Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. However, antibody trajectories and the associated duration of protection after a second vaccine dose remain unclear. In this study, we investigated anti-spike IgG antibody responses and correlates of protection after second doses of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the United Kingdom general population. In 222,493 individuals, we found significant boosting of anti-spike IgG by the second doses of both vaccines in all ages and using different dosing intervals, including the 3-week interval for BNT162b2. After second vaccination, BNT162b2 generated higher peak levels than ChAdOX1. Older individuals and males had lower peak levels with BNT162b2 but not ChAdOx1, whereas declines were similar across ages and sexes with ChAdOX1 or BNT162b2. Prior infection significantly increased antibody peak level and half-life with both vaccines. Anti-spike IgG levels were associated with protection from infection after vaccination and, to an even greater degree, after prior infection. At least 67% protection against infection was estimated to last for 2–3 months after two ChAdOx1 doses, for 5–8 months after two BNT162b2 doses in those without prior infection and for 1–2 years for those unvaccinated after natural infection. A third booster dose might be needed, prioritized to ChAdOx1 recipients and those more clinically vulnerable

SARS-CoV-2 antibody trajectories after a single COVID-19 vaccination with and without prior infection

Given high SARS-CoV-2 incidence, coupled with slow and inequitable vaccine roll-out in many settings, there is a need for evidence to underpin optimum vaccine deployment, aiming to maximise global population immunity. We evaluate whether a single vaccination in individuals who have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 generates similar initial and subsequent antibody responses to two vaccinations in those without prior infection. We compared anti-spike IgG antibody responses after a single vaccination with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, or mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the COVID-19 Infection Survey in the UK general population. In 100,849 adults median (50 (IQR: 37–63) years) receiving at least one vaccination, 13,404 (13.3%) had serological/PCR evidence of prior infection. Prior infection significantly boosted antibody responses, producing higher peak levels and/or longer half-lives after one dose of all three vaccines than those without prior infection receiving one or two vaccinations. In those with prior infection, the median time above the positivity threshold was >1 year after the first vaccination. Single-dose vaccination targeted to those previously infected may provide at least as good protection to two-dose vaccination among those without previous infection

Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 variant following booster vaccination or breakthrough infection in the UK

Following primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, whether boosters or breakthrough infections provide greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection is incompletely understood. Here we investigated SARS-CoV-2 antibody correlates of protection against new Omicron BA.4/5 (re-)infections and anti-spike IgG antibody trajectories after a third/booster vaccination or breakthrough infection following second vaccination in 154,149 adults ≥18 y from the United Kingdom general population. Higher antibody levels were associated with increased protection against Omicron BA.4/5 infection and breakthrough infections were associated with higher levels of protection at any given antibody level than boosters. Breakthrough infections generated similar antibody levels to boosters, and the subsequent antibody declines were slightly slower than after boosters. Together our findings show breakthrough infection provides longer-lasting protection against further infections than booster vaccinations. Our findings, considered alongside the risks of severe infection and long-term consequences of infection, have important implications for vaccine policy