Individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnostic and prognostic studies in obstetrics, gynaecology and reproductive medicine

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice a diagnosis is based on a combination of clinical history, physical examination and additional diagnostic tests. At present, studies on diagnostic research often report the accuracy of tests without taking into account the information already known from history and examination. Due to this lack of information, together with variations in design and quality of studies, conventional meta-analyses based on these studies will not show the accuracy of the tests in real practice. By using individual patient data (IPD) to perform meta-analyses, the accuracy of tests can be assessed in relation to other patient characteristics and allows the development or evaluation of diagnostic algorithms for individual patients. In this study we will examine these potential benefits in four clinical diagnostic problems in the field of gynaecology, obstetrics and reproductive medicine. METHODS/DESIGN: Based on earlier systematic reviews for each of the four clinical problems, studies are considered for inclusion. The first authors of the included studies will be invited to participate and share their original data. After assessment of validity and completeness the acquired datasets are merged. Based on these data, a series of analyses will be performed, including a systematic comparison of the results of the IPD meta-analysis with those of a conventional meta-analysis, development of multivariable models for clinical history alone and for the combination of history, physical examination and relevant diagnostic tests and development of clinical prediction rules for the individual patients. These will be made accessible for clinicians. DISCUSSION: The use of IPD meta-analysis will allow evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests in relation to other relevant information. Ultimately, this could increase the efficiency of the diagnostic work-up, e.g. by reducing the need for invasive tests and/or improving the accuracy of the diagnostic workup. This study will assess whether these benefits of IPD meta-analysis over conventional meta-analysis can be exploited and will provide a framework for future IPD meta-analyses in diagnostic and prognostic research

Prediction of pre-eclampsia: a protocol for systematic reviews of test accuracy

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia, a syndrome of hypertension and proteinuria, is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Accurate prediction of pre-eclampsia is important, since high risk women could benefit from intensive monitoring and preventive treatment. However, decision making is currently hampered due to lack of precise and up to date comprehensive evidence summaries on estimates of risk of developing pre-eclampsia. METHODS/DESIGN: A series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses will be undertaken to determine, among women in early pregnancy, the accuracy of various tests (history, examinations and investigations) for predicting pre-eclampsia. We will search Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, MEDION, citation lists of review articles and eligible primary articles and will contact experts in the field. Reviewers working independently will select studies, extract data, and assess study validity according to established criteria. Language restrictions will not be applied. Bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity will be considered for tests whose studies allow generation of 2 × 2 tables. DISCUSSION: The results of the test accuracy reviews will be integrated with results of effectiveness reviews of preventive interventions to assess the impact of test-intervention combinations for prevention of pre-eclampsia

Serum screening with Down's syndrome markers to predict pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age: Systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reliable antenatal identification of pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age is crucial to judicious allocation of monitoring resources and use of preventative treatment with the prospect of improving maternal/perinatal outcome. The purpose of this systematic review was to determine the accuracy of five serum analytes used in Down's serum screening for prediction of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data sources included Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Medion (inception to February 2007), hand searching of relevant journals, reference list checking of included articles, contact with experts. Two reviewers independently selected the articles in which the accuracy of an analyte used in Downs's serum screening before the 25^thgestational week was associated with the occurrence of pre-eclampsia and/or small for gestational age without language restrictions. Two authors independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality and results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five serum screening markers were evaluated. 44 studies, testing 169,637 pregnant women (4376 pre-eclampsia cases) and 86 studies, testing 382,005 women (20,339 fetal growth restriction cases) met the selection criteria. The results showed low predictive accuracy overall. For pre-eclampsia the best predictor was inhibin A>2.79MoM positive likelihood ratio 19.52 (8.33,45.79) and negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (0.13,0.68) (single study). For small for gestational age it was AFP>2.0MoM to predict birth weight < 10^thcentile with birth < 37 weeks positive likelihood ratio 27.96 (8.02,97.48) and negative likelihood ratio 0.78 (0.55,1.11) (single study). A potential clinical application using aspirin as a treatment is given as an example.</p> <p>There were methodological and reporting limitations in the included studies thus studies were heterogeneous giving pooled results with wide confidence intervals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Down's serum screening analytes have low predictive accuracy for pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age. They may be a useful means of risk assessment or of use in prediction when combined with other tests.</p

Accuracy of mean arterial pressure and blood pressure measurements in predicting pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To determine the accuracy of using systolic and diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, and increase of blood pressure to predict pre-eclampsia

Use of uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography to predict pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction: a systematic review and bivariable meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Alterations in waveforms in the uterine artery are associated with the development of pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction. We investigated the predictive accuracy of all uterine artery Doppler indices for both conditions in the first and second trimesters. METHODS: We identified relevant studies through searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Medion databases (all records to April 2006) and by checking bibliographies of identified studies and consulting with experts. Four of us independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed study validity. We performed a bivariable meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity and calculated likelihood ratios. RESULTS: We identified 74 studies of pre-eclampsia (total 79 547 patients) and 61 studies of intrauterine growth restriction (total 41 131 patients). Uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography provided a more accurate prediction when performed in the second trimester than in the first-trimester. Most Doppler indices had poor predictive characteristics, but this varied with patient risk and outcome severity. An increased pulsatility index with notching was the best predictor of pre-eclampsia (positive likelihood ratio 21.0 among high-risk patients and 7.5 among low-risk patients). It was also the best predictor of overall (positive likelihood ratio 9.1) and severe (positive likelihood ratio 14.6) intrauterine growth restriction among low-risk patients. INTERPRETATION: Abnormal uterine artery waveforms are a better predictor of pre-eclampsia than of intrauterine growth restriction. A pulsatility index, alone or combined with notching, is the most predictive Doppler index. These indices should be used in clinical practice. Future research should also concentrate on combining uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography with other tests.Jeltsje S. Cnossen, Rachel K. Morris, Gerben ter Riet, Ben W.J. Mol, Joris A.M. van der Post, Arri Coomarasamy, Aeilko H. Zwinderman, Stephen C. Robson, Patrick J.E. Bindels, Jos Kleijnen, Khalid S. Kha

Use of uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography to predict pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction:A systematic review and bivariable meta-analysis

Background: Alterations in waveforms in the uterine artery are associated with the development of pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction. We investigated the predictive accuracy of all uterine artery Doppler indices for both conditions in the first and second trimesters. Methods: We identified relevant studies through searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Medion databases (all records to April 2006) and by checking bibliographies of identified studies and consulting with experts. Four of us independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed study validity. We performed a bivariable meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity and calculated likelihood ratios. Results: We identified 74 studies of pre-eclampsia (total 79 547 patients) and 61 studies of intrauterine growth restriction (total 41 131 patients). Uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography provided a more accurate prediction when performed in the second trimester than in the first-trimester. Most Doppler indices had poor predictive characteristics, but this varied with patient risk and outcome severity. An increased pulsatility index with notching was the best predictor of pre-eclampsia (positive likelihood ratio 21.0 among high-risk patients and 7.5 among low-risk patients). It was also the best predictor of overall (positive likelihood ratio 9.1) and severe (positive likelihood ratio 14.6) intrauterine growth restriction among low-risk patients. Interpretation: Abnormal uterine artery waveforms are a better predictor of pre-eclampsia than of intrauterine growth restriction. A pulsatility index, alone or combined with notching, is the most predictive Doppler index. These indices should be used in clinical practice. Future research should also concentrate on combining uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography with other tests.</p

Age-dependent D-dimer cut-off value increases the number of older patients in whom deep vein thrombosis can be safely excluded

Background. D-Dimer testing to rule out deep vein thrombosis is less useful in older patients due to lower specificity. An age-adjusted D-dimer cut-off value increased the proportion of older patients (>50 years) in whom pulmonary embolism could be excluded. We retrospectively validated the efficacy of this cut-off combined with clinical probability for the exclusion of deep vein thrombosis. Design and Methods. Five management study cohorts of 2818 consecutive outpatients with suspected deep vein thrombosis were used. Patients with non-high or unlikely probability for deep vein thrombosis were included in the analysis; four different D-dimer tests were used. The proportion of patients with a normal D-dimer test and the failure rates were calculated using the conventional (500 μg/L) and the age-adjusted D-dimer cut-off (patient's age x 10 μg/L in patients >50 years). Results. In 1672 patients with non-high probability, deep vein thrombosis could be excluded in 850 (51%) with the age-adjusted versus 707 (42%) patients with the conventional cut-off value. The failure rates were 7 (0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.7%) for the age-adjusted and 5 (0.7%, 0.2-1.6%) for the conventional cut-off value. The absolute increase in patients in whom deep vein thrombosis could be ruled out using the age-adjusted cut-off value was largest in patients >70 years: 19% among patients with non- high probability. Conclusions. The age-adjusted cut-off of the D-dimer combined with clinical probability greatly increases the proportion of older patients in whom deep vein thrombosis can be safely excluded

Endometrial thickness measurement for detecting endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the accuracy of endometrial thickness measurement in the detection of endometrial cancer among women with postmenopausal bleeding with individual patient data using different meta-analytic strategies. DATA SOURCES: Original data sets of studies detected after reviewing the included studies of three previous reviews on this subject. An additional literature search of published articles using MEDLINE databases was preformed from January 2000 to December 2006 to identify articles reporting on endometrial carcinoma and sonographic endometrial thickness measurement in women with postmenopausal bleeding. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: We identified 90 studies reporting on endometrial thickness measurements and endometrial carcinoma in women with postmenopausal bleeding. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: We contacted 79 primary investigators to obtain the individual patient data of their reported studies, of which 13 could provide data. Data on 2,896 patients, of which 259 had carcinoma, were included. Several approaches were used in the analyses of the acquired data. First, we performed receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analysis per study, resulting in a summary area under the ROC curve (AUC) calculated as a weighted mean of AUCs from original studies. Second, individual patient data were pooled and analyzed with ROC analyses irrespective of study with standardization of distributional differences across studies using multiples of the median and by random effects logistic regression. Finally, we also used a two-stage procedure, calculating sensitivities and specificities for each study and using the bivariate random effects model to estimate summary estimates for diagnostic accuracy. This resulted in rather comparable ROC curves with AUCs varying between 0.82 and 0.84 and summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity located along these curves. These curves indicated a lower AUC than previously reported meta-analyses using conventional techniques. CONCLUSION: Previous meta-analyses on endometrial thickness measurement probably have overestimated its diagnostic accuracy in the detection of endometrial carcinoma. We advise the use of cutoff level of 3 mm for exclusion of endometrial carcinoma in women with postmenopausal bleedin