The Shape of Eurozone’s Uncertainty: Its Impact and Predictive Value on GDP

This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the euro area. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further

Family satisfaction in the intensive care unit: what makes the difference?

Purpose: To assess family satisfaction in the ICU and to identify parameters for improvement. Methods: Multicenter study in Swiss ICUs. Families were given a questionnaire covering overall satisfaction, satisfaction with care and satisfaction with information/decision-making. Demographic, medical and institutional data were gathered from patients, visitors and ICUs. Results: A total of 996 questionnaires from family members were analyzed. Individual questions were assessed, and summary measures (range 0-100) were calculated, with higher scores indicating greater satisfaction. Summary score was 78±14 (mean±SD) for overall satisfaction, 79±14 for care and 77±15 for information/decision-making. In multivariable multilevel linear regression analyses, higher severity of illness was associated with higher satisfaction, while a higher patient:nurse ratio and written admission/discharge criteria were associated with lower overall satisfaction. Using performance-importance plots, items with high impact on overall satisfaction but low satisfaction were identified. They included: emotional support, providing understandable, complete, consistent information and coordination of care. Conclusions: Overall, proxies were satisfied with care and with information/decision-making. Still, several factors, such as emotional support, coordination of care and communication, are associated with poor satisfaction, suggesting the need for improvemen

Effects of grass species and grass growth on atmospheric nitrogen deposition to a bog ecosystem surrounded by intensive agricultural land use

We applied a N-15 dilution technique called Integrated Total Nitrogen Input (ITNI) to quantify annual atmospheric N input into a peatland surrounded by intensive agricultural practices over a 2-year period. Grass species and grass growth effects on atmospheric N deposition were investigated using Lolium multiflorum and Eriophorum vaginatum and different levels of added N resulting in increased biomass production. Plant biomass production was positively correlated with atmospheric N uptake (up to 102.7mg N pot(-1)) when using Lolium multiflorum. In contrast, atmospheric N deposition to Eriophorum vaginatum did not show a clear dependency to produced biomass and ranged from 81.9 to 138.2mgNpot(-1). Both species revealed a relationship between atmospheric N input and total biomass N contents. Airborne N deposition varied from about 24 to 55kgNha(-1)yr(-1). Partitioning of airborne N within the monitor system differed such that most of the deposited N was found in roots of Eriophorum vaginatum while the highest share was allocated in aboveground biomass of Lolium multiflorum. Compared to other approaches determining atmospheric N deposition, ITNI showed highest airborne N input and an up to fivefold exceedance of the ecosystem-specific critical load of 5-10kgNha(-1)yr(-1).Peer reviewe

Hot and hypoxic environments inhibit simulated soccer performance and exacerbate performance decrements when combined.

The effects of heat and/or hypoxia have been well-documented in match-play data. However, large match-to-match variation for key physical performance measures makes environmental inferences difficult to ascertain from soccer match-play. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the hot (HOT), hypoxic (HYP) and hot-hypoxic (HH) mediated-decrements during a non-motorised treadmill based soccer-specific simulation. Twelve male University soccer players completed three familiarisation sessions and four randomised crossover experimental trials of the intermittent Soccer Performance Test (iSPT) in normoxic-temperate (CON: 18oC 50% rH), HOT (30oC; 50% rH), HYP (1,000m; 18oC 50% rH) and HH (1,000m; 30oC; 50% rH). Physical performance and its performance decrements, body temperatures (rectal, skin and estimated muscle temperature), heart rate (HR), arterial blood oxygen saturation (SaO2), perceived exertion, thermal sensation (TS), body mass changes, blood lactate and plasma volume were all measured. Performance decrements were similar in HOT and HYP [Total Distance (-4%), High-speed distance (~-8%) and variable run distance (~-12%) covered] and exacerbated in HH [total distance (-9%), high-speed distance (-15%) and variable run distance (-15%)] compared to CON. Peak sprint speed, was 4% greater in HOT compared with CON and HYP and 7% greater in HH. Sprint distance covered was unchanged (p > 0.05) in HOT and HYP and only decreased in HH (-8%) compared with CON. Body mass (-2%), temperatures (+2-5%) and TS (+18%) were altered in HOT. Furthermore, SaO2 (-8%) and HR (+3%) were changed in HYP. Similar changes in body mass and temperatures, HR, TS and SaO2 were evident in HH to HOT and HYP, however, blood lactate (p < 0.001) and plasma volume (p < 0.001) were only significantly altered in HH. Perceived exertion was elevated (p < 0.05) by 7% in all conditions compared with CON. Regression analysis identified that absolute TS and absolute rise in skin and estimated muscle temperature (r = 0.82, r = 0.84 r = 0.82, respectively; p <0.05) predicted the hot-mediated-decrements in HOT. The hot, hypoxic and hot-hypoxic environments impaired physical performance during iSPT. Future interventions should address the increases in TS and body temperatures, to attenuate these decrements on soccer performance

Development of a risk assessment tool for contact tracing people after contact with infectious patients while travelling by bus or other public ground transport: a Delphi consensus approach

Background: Tracing persons who have been in contact with an infectious patient may be very effective in preventing the spread of communicable diseases. However, criteria to decide when to conduct contact tracing are not well established. We have investigated the available evidence for contact tracing with a focus on public ground transport aiming to give guidance in what situations contact tracing should be considered. Methods: Relevant infectious diseases suitable for contact tracing in ground transport and a set of disease-specific epidemiological criteria were defined through literature search and structured multistep expert consultations. We developed continuous scales for each criterion to be rated for its relevance to contact tracing in ground transport. We used the Delphi method with an international expert panel to position the values of criteria on the respective scales. Results: The study led to the development of the ‘Contact Tracing-Risk Assessment Profile’ (CT-RAP), a decision-making instrument, taking into account pathogen-specific as well as situation-specific criteria. This report describes the methodology of this instrument and presents two examples of ready-to-use CT-RAP for tuberculosis and for meningococcal disease in public ground transport. Discussion: The systematic and transparent use of the CT-RAP for tuberculosis and meningococcal disease is likely to facilitate reasonable, efficient and user-friendly decisions with respect to contact tracing. New CT-RAPs for additional pathogens and different settings such as schools and kindergartens are being planned

Family satisfaction in the intensive care unit: what makes the difference?

PURPOSE: To assess family satisfaction in the ICU and to identify parameters for improvement. METHODS: Multicenter study in Swiss ICUs. Families were given a questionnaire covering overall satisfaction, satisfaction with care and satisfaction with information/decision-making. Demographic, medical and institutional data were gathered from patients, visitors and ICUs. RESULTS: A total of 996 questionnaires from family members were analyzed. Individual questions were assessed, and summary measures (range 0-100) were calculated, with higher scores indicating greater satisfaction. Summary score was 78 +/- 14 (mean +/- SD) for overall satisfaction, 79 +/- 14 for care and 77 +/- 15 for information/decision-making. In multivariable multilevel linear regression analyses, higher severity of illness was associated with higher satisfaction, while a higher patient:nurse ratio and written admission/discharge criteria were associated with lower overall satisfaction. Using performance-importance plots, items with high impact on overall satisfaction but low satisfaction were identified. They included: emotional support, providing understandable, complete, consistent information and coordination of care. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, proxies were satisfied with care and with information/decision-making. Still, several factors, such as emotional support, coordination of care and communication, are associated with poor satisfaction, suggesting the need for improvement. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00134-009-1611-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

PBF-LB/M of Low-Alloyed Steels: Bainite-like Microstructures despite High Cooling Rates

Laser-based powder bed fusion of metals (PBF-LB/M) is an emerging technology with enormous potential for the fabrication of highly complex products due to the layer-wise fabrication process. Low-alloyed steels have recently gained interest due to their wide potential range of applications. However, the correlation between the processing strategy and the material properties remains mostly unclear. The process-inherent high cooling rates support the assumption that a very fine martensitic microstructure is formed. Therefore, the microstructure formation was studied by means of scanning electron microscopy, hardness measurements, and an analysis of the tempering stability. It could be shown that additively manufactured Bainidur AM samples possess a bainitic microstructure despite the high process-specific cooling rates in PBF-LB/M. This bainitic microstructure is characterized by an excellent tempering stability up to temperatures as high as 600 °C. In contrast to this, additively manufactured and martensitic-hardened specimens are characterized by a higher initial hardness but a significantly reduced tempering stability. This shows the potential of manufacturing products from Bainidur AM for high-temperature applications without the necessity of a post-process heat treatment for achieving the desired bainitic microstructure

ClinOmicsTrailbc: a visual analytics tool for breast cancer treatment stratification

Motivation: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death among women. Tumors, even of the same histopathological subtype, exhibit a high genotypic diversity that impedes therapy stratification and that hence must be accounted for in the treatment decision-making process. Results: Here, we present ClinOmicsTrailbc, a comprehensive visual analytics tool for breast cancer decision support that provides a holistic assessment of standard-of-care targeted drugs, candidates for drug repositioning and immunotherapeutic approaches. To this end, our tool analyzes and visualizes clinical markers and (epi-)genomics and transcriptomics datasets to identify and evaluate the tumor’s main driver mutations, the tumor mutational burden, activity patterns of core cancerrelevant pathways, drug-specific biomarkers, the status of molecular drug targets and pharmacogenomic influences. In order to demonstrate ClinOmicsTrailbc’s rich functionality, we present three case studies highlighting various ways in which ClinOmicsTrailbc can support breast cancer precision medicine. ClinOmicsTrailbc is a powerful integrated visual analytics tool for breast cancer research in general and for therapy stratification in particular, assisting oncologists to find the best possible treatment options for their breast cancer patients based on actionable, evidence-based results. Availability and implementation: ClinOmicsTrailbc can be freely accessed at https://clinomicstrail. bioinf.uni-sb.de