Characteristics of viscoelastic crustal deformation following a megathrust earthquake: discrepancy between the apparent and intrinsic relaxation time constants

The viscoelastic deformation of an elastic–viscoelastic composite system is significantly different from that of a simple viscoelastic medium. Here, we show that complicated transient deformation due to viscoelastic stress relaxation after a megathrust earthquake can occur even in a very simple situation, in which an elastic surface layer (lithosphere) is underlain by a viscoelastic substratum (asthenosphere) under gravity. Although the overall decay rate of the system is controlled by the intrinsic relaxation time constant of the asthenosphere, the apparent decay time constant at each observation point is significantly different from place to place and generally much longer than the intrinsic relaxation time constant of the asthenosphere. It is also not rare that the sense of displacement rate is reversed during the viscoelastic relaxation. If we do not bear these points in mind, we may draw false conclusions from observed deformation data. Such complicated transient behavior can be explained mathematically from the characteristics of viscoelastic solution: for an elastic–viscoelastic layered half-space, the viscoelastic solution is expressed as superposition of three decaying components with different relaxation time constants that depend on wavelength

Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: Inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling

The branching crack model for earthquakes was developed by Vere-Jones and Kagan in the 1970s and the 1980s, respectively. With some simple and rational assumptions, its simulation results explain the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship and the Omori-Utsu aftershock decay formula. By introducing the concept of the critical zone, this model can be connected with the asperity model, the barrier model, and the nucleation model through a parameter – criticality. Particularly, the size of the critical zone determines the maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes and the source of their anomalies. The key to earthquake forecasting is to determine whether the concerned area is in a critical state and how large the critical zone is. We discuss what kinds of anomalies are meaningful as candidates of earthquake precursors. Finally, we outline modelling strategies for earthquake precursors with low probability gains that are due to the inherent randomness of earthquake source processes