Circular 69

LIST OF FIGURES -- LIST OF TABLES -- PREFACE -- CHAPTER 1— BACKGROUND & OVERVIEW: Alaska’s Native Lands: Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act Lands: Regional Corporations, Village Corporations, Additional ANCSA Land Entitlements, Former Native Reserve Lands; Other Native Lands: Native Allotments, Annette Island Reservation; Native Land Status; Alaskan Forests; What is a Forest Inventory?; Forest Inventories in Alaska; Forest Inventories on Native Land -- CHAPTER 2 — DETERMINING THE NEED FOR AN INVENTORY: Existing Forest Inventory Information; Agency Inventories: Forest Service Inventories, Bureau of Indian Affairs Inventories, Tanana Chiefs Conference Inventories; Level of Inventory -- CHAPTER 3 — INVENTORY PLANNING: Gathering Information; Planning Considerations: Why is This Inventory Needed?, Where will the Inventory Take Place?, What needs to be Inventoried and What Information is to be Collected?, Who is Going to do the Inventory?, When will the Inventory Take Place?, How is the Inventory going to be Done and How will the Data be Processed?, How Much is the Inventory going to Cost?, Unique Alaskan Constraints: Transportation Logistics, Adverse Weather, Musket, Dangerous Wildlife, Vegetation Barriers, Availability of Supplies and Fuel; Advantages of Planning -- CHAPTER 4 — HOW FOREST INVENTORIES ARE CONDUCTED: Maps and Aerial Photographs: Using Aerial Photographs in Forest Inventories, Using Aerial Photographs for Timber Typing; Statistical Considerations of a Forest Inventory: Variability of the Sample, Number of Samples, Sampling Design; Field Measurements: Tree Height, Tree Diameter and Taper, Tree Defects, Tree Age and Growth, Site Conditions, Forestry Equipment -- CHAPTER 5 — AFTER THE FIELD WORK IS DONE: Compilation of Data; When the Inventory is Complete; Looking Toward the Future -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- APPENDIX I - ALASKA’S PRINCIPAL TREE SPECIES -- APPENDIX II — USES OF ALASKA'S PRINCIPAL TREE SPECIES -- APPENDIX III — FORESTY CONSULTANTS IN ALASKA -- APPENDIX IV — TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE DIRECTORY -- APPENDIX V — SAMPLE OUTLINE FOR DEVELOPING A FOREST INVENTORY PLAN -- APPENDIX VI — USGS OFFICES IN ALASKA -- APPENDIX VII — NATURAL RESOURCES SCHOOLS IN ALASK

Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles

We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. We find a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century.crude oil, stock market prices, cointegrated VECM, structural stability, stock market bubble, oil price bubble

Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies

This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then slowly rises to 1.2 million at the end of the century, with 95% probability bounds of 800,000 to 1.8 million at the century's end. Adding stochastic immigration makes little difference to the probability distribution of the old age dependency ratio. 2) We incorporate parameter uncertainty, stochastic trends, and uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the probability distributions of the individual input forecasts, but they make relatively little difference when embedded in the more fully stochastic Social Security projection. 3) Using a 500-year stochastic projection, we estimate an infinite horizon balance of -5.15% of payroll, compared to the -3.5% of the 2004 Trustees Report, probably reflecting different mortality projections. Our 95% probability interval bounds are -10.5 and -1.3%. Such forecasts, which reflect only "routine" uncertainty, have many problems but nonetheless seem worthwhile.

An improved external recycle reactor for determining gas-solid reaction kinetics

These improvements in the recycle system effectively eliminate initial concentration variation by two modifications: (1) a vacuum line connection to the recycle loop which permits this loop to be evacuated and then filled with the test gas mixture to slightly above atmospheric pressure; and (2) a bypass line across the reactor which permits the reactor to be held under vacuum while the rest of the recycle loop is filled with test gas. A three-step procedure for bringing the feed gas mixture into contact with the catalyst at time zero is described

Reversible gelation and dynamical arrest of dipolar colloids

We use molecular dynamics simulations of a simple model to show that dispersions of slightly elongated colloidal particles with long-range dipolar interactions, like ferrofluids, can form a physical (reversible) gel at low volume fractions. On cooling, the particles first self-assemble into a transient percolating network of cross-linked chains, which, at much lower temperatures, then undergoes a kinetic transition to a dynamically arrested state with broken ergodicity. This transition from a transient to a frozen gel is characterised by dynamical signatures reminiscent of jamming in much denser dispersions.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figure

Nearctic \u3ci\u3eAcleris\u3c/i\u3e: Resurrection of \u3ci\u3eA. Stadiana\u3c/i\u3e and a Revised Identity for \u3ci\u3eA. Semiannula\u3c/i\u3e (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

Type study showed that Acleris stadiana (Barnes & Busck), currently considered a junior synonym of A. semiannula (Robinson), is in fact a distinct taxon. Although superficially similar, these taxa differ markedly in genital structure. In males of A. semiannula, the aedeagus is short, broad, and virtually straight, whereas in those of A. stadiana, it is long, thin, and sharply bent. What was known in literature as A. semiannula proved to be A. stadi­ana. We redefine both A. semiannula and the resurrected A. stadiana

Muonic hydrogen and the proton radius puzzle

The extremely precise extraction of the proton radius by Pohl et al. from the measured energy difference between the 2P and 2S states of muonic hydrogen disagrees significantly with that extracted from electronic hydrogen or elastic electron-proton scattering. This is the proton radius puzzle. The origins of the puzzle and the reasons for believing it to be very significant are explained. Various possible solutions of the puzzle are identified, and future work needed to resolve the puzzle is discussed.Comment: Minor modifications, some references added, to appear in Annu. Rev. Nucl. Part. Sci. Vol 63 (2013). 60 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

POLICING THE PACIFIC: A PATH TO BUILDING LAW ENFORCEMENT CAPACITY IN THE FREELY ASSOCIATED STATES

The United States shares a special relationship with the Freely Associated States (FAS), resulting in a virtual extension of the United States. Given the importance of the Pacific Islands Countries (PIC) and the virtually borderless linkages of the FAS as a result of the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) agreements, the United States must look for ways to comprehensively invest in policing capacity-building efforts within the region. By analyzing Australia’s efforts in the Melanesia region and the actions of the United States in the Caribbean to combat drugs, this thesis proposes a resources-optimized policy framework to overlay onto the Pacific. This thesis uses the Law Enforcement Domain Evaluation Model (LE DEM) to integrate the two policy approaches. The LE DEM incorporates the continuum of preventative measures to response options to enable the recommendation of a comprehensive policing capacity-building strategy in the Pacific. Those recommendations include expanding and equipping the Joint Interagency Task Force (JIATF) West; establishing a Micronesian fusion center; creating four supporting specialized joint task forces; and enabling digital and chemical forensics, maritime domain awareness, and financial auditing. In addition, it proposes five lines of investment efforts for joint technology and asset transfers that should be executed to enable the region to hedge against the evolving Pacific transnational threats.Lieutenant Commander, United States Coast GuardApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

The American Labour Movement in Transition

.For the next three to five years, there appears to be little likelihood that the status of unions in the United States will change. The major forces that have economically and politically weakened organised labour persist. Because American unions are reactive and protective organisations, they have adjusted slowly and cautiously to shaping forces. Nevertheless, in response to changes in industrial structure, labour force composition and union leadership, fewer, larger, and internally diverse unions are evolving. To varying degrees, unions are reorienting their strategies and activities to reflect the interest of a work force that increasingly values co-operation rather than confrontation, employment security through managed change, and participative management. As a consequence, the industrial relations system is evolving a complex mixture of adversarial and co-management relationships