Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud

The proliferation of elections in even those states that are arguably anything but democratic has given rise to a focused interest on developing methods for detecting fraud in the official statistics of a state's election returns. Among these efforts are those that employ Benford's Law, with the most common application being an attempt to proclaim some election or another fraud free or replete with fraud. This essay, however, argues that, despite its apparent utility in looking at other phenomena, Benford's Law is problematical at best as a forensic tool when applied to elections. Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford's Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its "success rate" either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst

Impact of Short Social Training on Prosocial Behaviors: An fMRI Study

Efficient brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) are in need of knowledge about the human brain and how it interacts, plays games, and socializes with other brains. A breakthrough can be achieved by revealing the microfoundations of sociality, an additional component of the utility function reflecting the value of contributing to group success derived from social identity. Building upon our previous behavioral work, we conduct a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments (N = 10 in the Pilot Study and N = 15 in the Main Study) to measure whether and how sociality alters the functional activation of and connectivity between specific systems in the brain. The overarching hypothesis of this study is that sociality, even in a minimal form, serves as a natural mechanism of sustainable cooperation by fostering interaction between brain regions associated with social cognition and those related to value calculation. We use group-based manipulations to induce varying levels of sociality and compare behavior in two social dilemmas: Prisoner’s Dilemma and variations of Ultimatum Game. We find that activation of the right inferior frontal gyrus, a region previously associated with cognitive control and modulation of the valuation system, is correlated with activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) to a greater degree when participants make economic decisions in a game with an acquaintance, high sociality condition, compared to a game with a random individual, low sociality condition. These initial results suggest a specific biological mechanism through which sociality facilitates cooperation, fairness and provision of public goods at the cost of individual gain. Future research should examine neural dynamics in the brain during the computation of utility in the context of strategic games that involve social interaction for a larger sample of subjects

Exchange Economies and Loss Exposure: Experiments Exploring Prospect Theory and Competitive Equilibria in Market Environments

Exchange economies were created in which individuals faced losses. If people are risk seeking in the losses, as predicted by prospect theory, then due to the nonconvexity, the competitive equilibria are all on the boundaries of the Edgeworth Box. The experimental results are that risk-seeking behavior is observed in many people and appears in markets as predicted. In addition, market behavior is consistent with answers to hypothetical questionnaires. Contrary to prospect theory, risk seeking seems to diminish with experience: preferences in the market setting are not labile; and risk-seeking preferences are not simply a result of framing effects

Are the Communists Dying Out in Russia?

Many predicted that the strength of the Communist Party in Russia would wane as the elderly pensioners who disproportionately supported the party died off. Contrary to this prediction, the findings of our analysis indicate that voters who reached retirement age during the past decade were even more supportive of the communists than the cohort of pensioners who preceded them. We believe this occurred because it was workers approaching retirement, not pensioners per se, who were disproportionately injured by the transition to a more market-oriented economy. Like pensioners they lost savings, but in many cases they also lost their jobs. They also had little opportunity to learn the new skills that the Russian economy increasingly calls for. There is as yet no indication that the communists have begun to die out

Exchange Economies and Loss Exposure: Experiments Exploring Prospect Theory and Competitive Equilibria in Market Environments

A natural economic interpretation of Prospect Theory is that people have preferences that are risk seeking in losses and risk averse in gains. Thus, according to this interpretation of the theory, individuals in an exchange economy facing only losses in wealth, would have concave preferences as opposed to the usual convex preferences. That is, if individuals could engage in trade that would reduce the magnitude of expected losses and change the variance associated with losses, they would have a tendency to seek higher variance and perhaps be willing to do so at the cost of a reduction of expected value of wealth. Such individuals would be willing to sell insurance at prices below the expected value. With concave preferences all competitive equilibria have allocations at the boundaries of the Edgeworth Box. Experimental markets were constructed to determine if such behavior could be observed. The results are that risk seeking behavior is observed in many people. Furthermore, the propensity toward risk seeking in markets is consistent with answers given to questionnaires involving hypothetical choices among lotteries. The propensity toward risk seeking appears to be reduced with experience. In one sense the data are strongly supportive of Prospect Theory but in another sense the data are not. The evidence suggests that preferences in the market setting are not labile and that the risk seeking propensities are not a result of delicate framing effects. The preferences revealed in the market seemed to be a property of the people and not simply a property of their decision processes as required by Prospect Theory

Three Essays on Russia's Transition to Democracy

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The socio-economic and demographic factors of online activity among right-wing radicals

This paper presents the results of a study on socio-economic and demographic factors that affect the intensity of right-wing radicals' activity in the framework of the Russian-based social network VKontakte. Right-wing radical ideas expressed within the VKontakte network are most actively supported by the population of the regional centres (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai) and areas around these centres, which are defined as the semi-periphery in the core-periphery model. The intensity of the online activity of right-wing radicals is mostly influenced by demographic factors, including the average age of the population, the net migration rate coefficient; however, it is not affected by the indicators of economic wellbeing. The authors hypothesise that support for right-wing radical ideology on social media is determined not by the objective characteristics of the social and economic well-being of the population, but by subjective emotional factors (irritation, feelings of social injustice)

The Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors of Online Activity among Right-Wing Radicals

This paper presents the results of a study on socio-economic and demographic factors that affect the intensity of right-wing radicals’ activity in the framework of the Russian-based social network VKontakte. Right-wing radical ideas expressed within the VKontakte network are most actively supported by the population of the regional centres (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai) and areas around these centres, which are defined as the semi-periphery in the core-periphery model. The intensity of the online activity of right-wing radicals is mostly influenced by demographic factors, including the average age of the population, the net migration rate coefficient; however, it is not affected by the indicators of economic well-being. The authors hypothesise that support for right-wing radical ideology on social media is determined not by the objective characteristics of the social and economic well-being of the population, but by subjective emotional factors (irritation, feelings of social injustice)

Do Women Socialize Better? Evidence from a Study on Sociality Effects on Gender Differences in Cooperative Behavior

Human behavior is greatly influenced by the social context. The currrent study on men’ and women’s cooperative behavior investigated the influence of long-term and short-term effects of socializing in group. The repeated Prisoner’s dilemma carried out in groups of 6 participants was used as the main experimental situation. The differences were found in changes in the level of cooperation, taking in to account the effects of mixing social and gender variables. Socialization made cooperation of group members strength and sustainable. However, men’ and women’s cooperative behavior in groups differed. Women were initially more inclined to cooperate in interaction with strangers. Men showed greater sensitivity to sociality effects. They tended to make cooperative decisions more often if there are friends in the group. Furthermore, men cooperated with previously unknown people after socializing with them significantly more than women