Assessing Malaysia’s Business Cycle indicators

An empirical assessment shows that Malaysia’s business cycle indicators can be improved. Turning point detection is not impressive, especially for troughs. Lead times are also variable. However, the relationship between the leading and coincident indicators over the entire cycle shows quite strong correlations from the late 1980s onwards, although lead times have shortened. Empirical evidence is very strong that the leading index Granger-causes the coincident index. Business and consumer confidence surveys also show much promise in improving prediction of the reference cycle. However, implications of the changing economic structure on the performance of the leading index needs to be fully taken into account, especially the emergence of new services sector activities.Business/growth cycle, Malaysian economy, growth cycle chronology, turning point analysis, Granger causality

Valuing indigenous biodiversity in the freshwater environment

Biosecurity incursion response decisions require timely, high quality information involving science and economics. The value of the impact on indigenous biodiversity is a key aspect of the economics typically involving cost-benefit analysis. The hypothetical incursion of Biosecurity New Zealand’s top priority weed hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata) in a typical New Zealand lake (Lake Rotoroa otherwise known as Hamilton Lake) elicits dollar values of impacts on indigenous biodiversity in a freshwater environment. Using the stated preference tool, Choice Modelling, the experimental design was maximised for efficiency of Willingness to Pay (WTP) estimation. The survey method of community meetings of four population samples at varying distances to the incursion site is a cross between a mail survey and an individual interview survey. Results show an efficient design with minimal sample size and biodiversity attributes that have values statistically different from zero but not statistically different between locations.Non-market valuation, biosecurity, biodiversity, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Turnover, Ownership and Productivity in Malaysian Manufacturing

Applying Foster, Haltiwanger and Krizan‟s (1998) decomposition of productivity growth method to Malaysian manufacturing census data for 2000 and 2005, we analyse if firm turnover by ownership (domestic versus foreign) has any impact on the sector‟s aggregate productivity growth. The findings show that turnover matters regardless of ownership but, more importantly, attracting foreign direct investment inflows could induce positive „net entry effect‟. The manufacturing sector‟s heavy dependence on FDI is underscored by the significant contribution of large MNCs to export value. Foreign entrants also have an important positive impact on sector productivity. The analysis shows that large-sized foreign and domestic entrants are more productive than medium-sized and especially small-sized ones. Among survivors, large foreign and domestic establishments fare the worst. Mediumsized domestic survivors, on the other hand, contribute the most to boosting sector productivity. The study demonstrates the usefulness of such an analytical framework by drawing out important implications for state industrial policies based on ownership and firm size.Ownership, firm turnover; productivity; manufacturing; Malaysia

Does Exporter Turnover Contribute to Aggregate Productivity Growth? Evidence from Malaysian Manufacturing.

Malaysia’s economic success is to a significant extent underpinned by its export-oriented manufacturing sector. The sector has a large foreign presence, with MNCs attracted by the open trade and investment regime, and FDI-friendly policies. Using unpublished manufacturing census data for 2000 and 2005, we apply the methodology by Foster et al. (1998) to decompose productivity growth. The analysis shows that exporters were more productive than domestic-oriented establishments, and were distinctly more competitive. The empirical evidence also shows that establishment turnover is important in boosting productivity growth. In particular, we find that turnover of exporters made a larger contribution to aggregate productivity growth compared to domestic-oriented establishments during the period from 2000 to 2005. Surviving establishments (those that operated in both years), on the other hand, made a negative contribution. It is noteworthy that entrants to export markets were more productive than surviving non-exporters and even surviving exporters. Exiters from export markets or “export failuresâ€, on the other hand, were less productive than continuing exporters. Given the importance of turnover to productivity growth, the government should ensure unrestricted entry to the export sectors for both foreign and domestic investors. Continuing with pro-FDI policies is also important, given the keener global competition.Exporting; plant turnover; productivity; manufacturing; Malaysia

Attendee Motivations at an International Wine Festival in China

Wine festival research has primarily focused on tourism potential and economic impact in western wine destinations, with few studies seeking to understand what motivates those to attend a festival in a “non-traditional” wine destination. An on-site survey study (N = 366) was conducted at the 2012 Dalian International Wine and Dine Festival, China. Factor analysis suggests a unique motivational factor structure with four motivational components identified amongst festival attendees. They were wine festival; where the festival event itself is a primary motive, recover equilibrium at a novel event, family and known group togetherness and cultural exploration through interaction/socialization. An independent t-test and One-way ANOVA tests found statistically significant motivational variances between attendees based on gender, age, education, income level and employment status. These findings offer important implications for festival and event organizations that have an interest in developing and organizing wine festivals in China, and attracting Chinese mainland tourists to overseas wine festivals

Sustainable Development Framework for Local Governance

Over the past sixty years, the concept of development has expanded from economic growth and investment, to poverty reduction, human development, sustainable development, and more recently to institutional development. There has also been a fresh look at industrial policy and the role of the nonfarm economy. These aspects of development are not only important in their own right but are very much interrelated. National development experience shows the importance of investment and infrastructure to growth; the significance of growth, infrastructure, and human development to poverty reduction; the contribution of growth and human development to sustainable development; the effect of nonfarm incomes to growth, poverty reduction, and inequality; and the importance of institutions to growth. Local development experience also reveals the interrelatedness of the different development aspects: the importance of investment, infrastructure, and human capital to growth and poverty reduction; the role of health to human capital; the significance of human capital to poverty and inequality; the value of human development, institutions, and good governance to sustainable development; the importance of human capital to enterprise development; and in turn of enterprise development to investment and therefore growth as well as to poverty reduction; the contribution of nonfarm incomes to growth and poverty reduction; and the importance of governance to poverty reduction and human development

Air Pollution and Lymphocyte Phenotype Proportions in Cord Blood

Effects of air pollution on morbidity and mortality may be mediated by alterations in immune competence. In this study we examined short-term associations of air pollution exposures with lymphocyte immunophenotypes in cord blood among 1,397 deliveries in two districts of the Czech Republic. We measured fine particulate matter < 2.5 μm in diameter (PM(2.5)) and 12 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 24-hr samples collected by versatile air pollution samplers. Cord blood samples were analyzed using a FACSort flow cytometer to determine phenotypes of CD3(+) T-lymphocytes and their subsets CD4(+) and CD8(+), CD19(+) B-lymphocytes, and natural killer cells. The mothers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, and medical records were abstracted for obstetric, labor and delivery characteristics. During the period 1994 to 1998, the mean daily ambient concentration of PM(2.5) was 24.8 μg/m(3) and that of PAHs was 63.5 ng/m(3). In multiple linear regression models adjusted for temperature, season, and other covariates, average PAH or PM(2.5) levels during the 14 days before birth were associated with decreases in T-lymphocyte phenotype fractions (i.e., CD3(+) CD4(+), and CD8(+)), and a clear increase in the B-lymphocyte (CD19(+)) fraction. For a 100-ng/m(3) increase in PAHs, which represented approximately two standard deviations, the percentage decrease was −3.3% [95% confidence interval (CI), −5.6 to −1.0%] for CD3(+), −3.1% (95% CI, −4.9 to −1.3%) for CD4(+), and −1.0% (95% CI, −1.8 to −0.2%) for CD8(+) cells. The corresponding increase in the CD19(+) cell proportion was 1.7% (95% CI, 0.4 to 3.0%). Associations were similar but slightly weaker for PM(2.5). Ambient air pollution may influence the relative distribution of lymphocyte immunophenotypes of the fetus