Evolution: Complexity, uncertainty and innovation

Complexity science provides a general mathematical basis for evolutionary thinking. It makes us face the inherent, irreducible nature of uncertainty and the limits to knowledge and prediction. Complex, evolutionary systems work on the basis of on-going, continuous internal processes of exploration, experimentation and innovation at their underlying levels. This is acted upon by the level above, leading to a selection process on the lower levels and a probing of the stability of the level above. This could either be an organizational level above, or the potential market place. Models aimed at predicting system behaviour therefore consist of assumptions of constraints on the micro-level – and because of inertia or conformity may be approximately true for some unspecified time. However, systems without strong mechanisms of repression and conformity will evolve, innovate and change, creating new emergent structures, capabilities and characteristics. Systems with no individual freedom at their lower levels will have predictable behaviour in the short term – but will not survive in the long term. Creative, innovative, evolving systems, on the other hand, will more probably survive over longer times, but will not have predictable characteristics or behaviour. These minimal mechanisms are all that are required to explain (though not predict) the co-evolutionary processes occurring in markets, organizations, and indeed in emergent, evolutionary communities of practice. Some examples will be presented briefly

Exhumation history of the Higher Himalayan Crystalline along Dhauliganga-Goriganga river valleys, NW India: new constraints from fission track analysis

New apatite and zircon fission track data collected from two transects along the Dhauliganga and Goriganga rivers in the NW Himalaya document exhumation of the Higher Himalayan Crystalline units. Despite sharing the same structural configuration and rock types and being separated by only 60 km, the two study areas show very different patterns of exhumation. Fission track (FT) data from the Dhauliganga section show systematic changes in age (individual apatite FT ages range from 0.9 ± 0.3 to 3.6 ± 0.5 Ma, r 2 = 0.82) that record faster exhumation across a zone that extends from the Main Central Thrust to north of the Vaikrita thrust. By contrast, FT results from the Goriganga Valley show a stepwise change in ages across the Vaikrita thrust that suggests Quaternary thrust sense displacement. Footwall samples yield a weighted mean apatite age of 1.6 ± 0.1 Ma compared to 0.7 ± 0.04 Ma in the hanging wall. A constant zircon fission track age of 1.8 ± 0.4 Ma across both the footwall and hanging wall shows the 0.9 Ma difference in apatite ages is due to movement on the Vaikrita thrust that initiated soon after ∼1.8 Ma. The Goriganga section provides clear evidence for >1 Ma of tectonic deformation in the brittle crust that contrasts with previous exhumation studies in other areas of the high Himalaya ranges; these studies have been unable to decouple the role of climate erosion from tectonics. One possibility why there is a clear tectonic signal in the Goriganga Valley is that climate erosion has not yet fully adjusted to the tectonic perturbation

Models of everywhere revisited: a technological perspective

The concept ‘models of everywhere’ was first introduced in the mid 2000s as a means of reasoning about the environmental science of a place, changing the nature of the underlying modelling process, from one in which general model structures are used to one in which modelling becomes a learning process about specific places, in particular capturing the idiosyncrasies of that place. At one level, this is a straightforward concept, but at another it is a rich multi-dimensional conceptual framework involving the following key dimensions: models of everywhere, models of everything and models at all times, being constantly re-evaluated against the most current evidence. This is a compelling approach with the potential to deal with epistemic uncertainties and nonlinearities. However, the approach has, as yet, not been fully utilised or explored. This paper examines the concept of models of everywhere in the light of recent advances in technology. The paper argues that, when first proposed, technology was a limiting factor but now, with advances in areas such as Internet of Things, cloud computing and data analytics, many of the barriers have been alleviated. Consequently, it is timely to look again at the concept of models of everywhere in practical conditions as part of a trans-disciplinary effort to tackle the remaining research questions. The paper concludes by identifying the key elements of a research agenda that should underpin such experimentation and deployment

Thermochronology of the modern Indus River bedload: New insight into the controls on the marine stratigraphic record

The Indus River is the only major drainage in the western Himalaya and delivers a long geological record of continental erosion to the Arabian Sea, which may be deciphered and used to reconstruct orogenic growth if the modern bedload can be related to the mountains. In this study we collected thermochronologic data from river sediment collected near the modern delta. U-Pb ages of zircons spanning 3 Gyr show that only ∼5% of the eroding crust has been generated since India-Asia collision. The Greater Himalaya are the major source of zircons, with additional contributions from the Karakoram and Lesser Himalaya. The 39Ar/40Ar dating of muscovites gives ages that cluster between 10 and 25 Ma, differing from those recorded in the Bengal Fan. Biotite ages are generally younger, ranging 0–15 Ma. Modern average exhumation rates are estimated at ∼0.6 km/m.y. or less, and have slowed progressively since the early Miocene (∼20 Ma), although fission track (FT) dating of apatites may indicate a recent moderate acceleration in rates since the Pliocene (∼1.0 km/m.y.) driven by climate change. The 39Ar/40Ar and FT techniques emphasize the dominance of high topography in controlling the erosional flux to the ocean. Localized regions of tectonically driven, very rapid exhumation (e.g., Nanga Parbat, S. Karakoram metamorphic domes) do not dominate the erosional record

Balancing the dilution and oddity effects: Decisions depend on body size

Background Grouping behaviour, common across the animal kingdom, is known to reduce an individual's risk of predation; particularly through dilution of individual risk and predator confusion (predator inability to single out an individual for attack). Theory predicts greater risk of predation to individuals more conspicuous to predators by difference in appearance from the group (the ‘oddity’ effect). Thus, animals should choose group mates close in appearance to themselves (eg. similar size), whilst also choosing a large group. Methodology and Principal Findings We used the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a well known model species of group-living freshwater fish, in a series of binary choice trials investigating the outcome of conflict between preferences for large and phenotypically matched groups along a predation risk gradient. We found body-size dependent differences in the resultant social decisions. Large fish preferred shoaling with size-matched individuals, while small fish demonstrated no preference. There was a trend towards reduced preferences for the matched shoal under increased predation risk. Small fish were more active than large fish, moving between shoals more frequently. Activity levels increased as predation risk decreased. We found no effect of unmatched shoal size on preferences or activity. Conclusions and Significance Our results suggest that predation risk and individual body size act together to influence shoaling decisions. Oddity was more important for large than small fish, reducing in importance at higher predation risks. Dilution was potentially of limited importance at these shoal sizes. Activity levels may relate to how much sampling of each shoal was needed by the test fish during decision making. Predation pressure may select for better decision makers to survive to larger size, or that older, larger fish have learned to make shoaling decisions more efficiently, and this, combined with their size relative to shoal-mates, and attractiveness as prey items influences shoaling decisions

Management of low back pain in Ghana : a survey of self-reported practice

Background and Purpose: Practice variation exists in the physiotherapy management of low back pain (LBP) across several countries. Previous studies indicate that treatment strategies used may not always be in line with evidence-based practice. Most of these studies however were conducted in developed countries. This study sought to investigate the management of LBP in Ghana in order to add to the emergent literature regarding practice in developing nations. Methods: A web-based self-report questionnaire was made available to all eligible members of the Ghana Physiotherapy Association. Results: The survey achieved a response rate of 67%. Over 60% of physiotherapists in Ghana had less than 5years of practice experience, worked in large facility hospitals and had no post-graduate further training. Most LBP patients seen were chronic, and over 60% of treatment sessions used multiple therapies and included exercises, advice, massage, electrotherapy and manual therapy. Conclusion: This first mapping of physiotherapy management of LBP in Ghana shows an overt multimodal approach. There was potential good practice with the high use of exercise and advice, the equally high utilization of passive treatments however showed variance to recommendations of guidelines. The findings of this study have implications for clinical practice and physiotherapy education and research.</p

Seasonal trends of Amazonian rainforest phenology, net primary productivity, and carbon allocation.:Seasonal trends of Amazonian forests.

The seasonality of solar irradiance and precipitation may regulate seasonal variations in tropical forests carbon cycling. Controversy remains over their importance as drivers of seasonal dynamics of net primary productivity in tropical forests. We use ground data from nine lowland Amazonian forest plots collected over 3 years to quantify the monthly primary productivity (NPP) of leaves, reproductive material, woody material, and fine roots over an annual cycle. We distinguish between forests that do not experience substantial seasonal moisture stress (“humid sites”) and forests that experience a stronger dry season (“dry sites”). We find that forests from both precipitation regimes maximize leaf NPP over the drier season, with a peak in production in August at both humid (mean 0.39 ± 0.03 Mg C ha−1 month−1 in July, n = 4) and dry sites (mean 0.49 ± 0.03 Mg C ha−1 month−1 in September, n = 8). We identify two distinct seasonal carbon allocation patterns (the allocation of NPP to a specific organ such as wood leaves or fine roots divided by total NPP). The forests monitored in the present study show evidence of either (i) constant allocation to roots and a seasonal trade-off between leaf and woody material or (ii) constant allocation to wood and a seasonal trade-off between roots and leaves. Finally, we find strong evidence of synchronized flowering at the end of the dry season in both precipitation regimes. Flower production reaches a maximum of 0.047 ± 0.013 and 0.031 ± 0.004 Mg C ha−1 month−1 in November, in humid and dry sites, respectively. Fruitfall production was staggered throughout the year, probably reflecting the high variation in varying times to development and loss of fruit among species

Energy, Aesthetics and Knowledge in Complex Economic Systems

It is argued that the fact that economic systems are dissipative structures must be taken fully into account in economics if we are to understand the nature of the economic-ecological interface and how to deal with emergent environmental problems, such as global warming. Such problems are a product of economic growth, which is widely accepted to be the outcome of the acquisition and application of knowledge. Drawing upon disparate literatures within and outside economics, it is argued that economic growth should be more properly viewed as the outcome of a co-evolutionary process that involves the autocatalytic interaction of new knowledge and access of increasing amounts of free energy to do increasingly specialized forms of work. The conventional view is that energy is just a factor of production used increasingly as new knowledge is employed. The possibility of reverse causation is considered here. Specifically, the relevance of the ‘energy hypothesis,’ associated with Eric Schneider and his collaborators, is assessed. This hypothesis states that all dissipative structures have, as their primary objective, the reduction of accessible free energy gradients. It is concluded that such a hypothesis cannot be rejected in the context of economic behaviour and that this opens up an important research agenda for economists. It is argued that such research has to be interdisciplinary because our economic behaviour is driven by aspirational goals which are aesthetic constructions in the mind and strongly connected to our emotions. In this regard, recent neuropsychological literature, arguing that certain emotional dispositions are necessary before we can employ our cognitive capabilities effectively, is important to digest. Thus, the possibility exists that it is in the emotional domain of the mind that the energy hypothesis is operative. Aesthetic constructions are, thus, connecting agents in the knowledge-energy co-evolutionary process. Some of the macroeconomic evidence concerning the relationship between free energy use and economic growth is considered and it is found that the energy hypothesis cannot be rejected in the economic domain. However, considerably more research needs to be undertaken before any firm conclusions can be drawn

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: the cluster redshift survey, target selection and cluster properties

We describe the selection of galaxies targeted in eight low redshift clusters (APMCC0917, A168, A4038, EDCC442, A3880, A2399, A119 and A85; $0.029 < z < 0.058$) as part of the Sydney-AAO Multi-Object integral field Spectrograph Galaxy Survey (SAMI-GS). We have conducted a redshift survey of these clusters using the AAOmega multi-object spectrograph on the 3.9m Anglo-Australian Telescope. The redshift survey is used to determine cluster membership and to characterise the dynamical properties of the clusters. In combination with existing data, the survey resulted in 21,257 reliable redshift measurements and 2899 confirmed cluster member galaxies. Our redshift catalogue has a high spectroscopic completeness ($\sim 94\%$) for $r_{\rm petro} \leq 19.4$ and clustercentric distances $R< 2\rm{R}_{200}$. We use the confirmed cluster member positions and redshifts to determine cluster velocity dispersion, $\rm{R}_{200}$, virial and caustic masses, as well as cluster structure. The clusters have virial masses $14.25 \leq {\rm log }({\rm M}_{200}/\rm{M}_{\odot}) \leq 15.19$. The cluster sample exhibits a range of dynamical states, from relatively relaxed-appearing systems, to clusters with strong indications of merger-related substructure. Aperture- and PSF-matched photometry are derived from SDSS and VST/ATLAS imaging and used to estimate stellar masses. These estimates, in combination with the redshifts, are used to define the input target catalogue for the cluster portion of the SAMI-GS. The primary SAMI-GS cluster targets have $R< \rm{R}_{200}$, velocities $|v_{\rm pec}| < 3.5\sigma_{200}$ and stellar masses $9.5 \leq {\rm log(M}^*_{approx}/\rm{M}_{\odot}) \leq 12$. Finally, we give an update on the SAMI-GS progress for the cluster regions