Life expectancy and disease burden in the Nordic countries : results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background The Nordic countries have commonalities in gender equality, economy, welfare, and health care, but differ in culture and lifestyle, which might create country-wise health differences. This study compared life expectancy, disease burden, and risk factors in the Nordic region. Methods Life expectancy in years and age-standardised rates of overall, cause-specific, and risk factor-specific estimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were analysed in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Data were extracted for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (ie, the Nordic countries), and Greenland, an autonomous area of Denmark. Estimates were compared with global, high-income region, and Nordic regional estimates, including Greenland. Findings All Nordic countries exceeded the global life expectancy; in 2017, the highest life expectancy was in Iceland among females (85.9 years [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 85.5-86.4] vs 75.6 years [75.3-75.9] globally) and Sweden among males (80.8 years [80.2-81.4] vs 70.5 years [70.1-70.8] globally). Females (82.7 years [81.9-83.4]) and males (78.8 years [78.1-79.5]) in Denmark and males in Finland (78.6 years [77.8-79.2]) had lower life expectancy than in the other Nordic countries. The lowest life expectancy in the Nordic region was in Greenland (females 77.2 years [76.2-78.0], males 70.8 years [70.3-71.4]). Overall disease burden was lower in the Nordic countries than globally, with the lowest age-standardised DALY rates among Swedish males (18 555.7 DALYs [95% UI 15 968.6-21 426.8] per 100 000 population vs 35 834.3 DALYs [33 218.2-38 740.7] globally) and Icelandic females (16 074.1 DALYs [13 216.4-19 240.8] vs 29 934.6 DALYs [26 981.9-33 211.2] globally). Greenland had substantially higher DALY rates (26 666.6 DALYs [23 478.4-30 218.8] among females, 33 101.3 DALYs [30 182.3-36 218.6] among males) than the Nordic countries. Country variation was primarily due to differences in causes that largely contributed to DALYs through mortality, such as ischaemic heart disease. These causes dominated male disease burden, whereas non-fatal causes such as low back pain were important for female disease burden. Smoking and metabolic risk factors were high-ranking risk factors across all countries. DALYs attributable to alcohol use and smoking were particularly high among the Danes, as was alcohol use among Finnish males. Interpretation Risk factor differences might drive differences in life expectancy and disease burden that merit attention also in high-income settings such as the Nordic countries. Special attention should be given to the high disease burden in Greenland. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries : incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017

Introduction Falls in older aged adults are an important public health problem. Insight into differences in fall-related injury rates between countries can serve as important input for identifying and evaluating prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to compare Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to fall-related injury in older adults across 22 countries in the Western European region and to examine changes over a 28-year period. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2017 results on age-standardised fall-related injury in older adults aged 70 years and older in 22 countries from 1990 to 2017. Results In 2017, in the Western European region, 13 840 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval (UI) 11 837-16 113) older adults sought medical treatment for fall-related injury, ranging from 7594 per 100 000 (UI 6326-9032) in Greece to 19 796 per 100 000 (UI 15 536-24 233) in Norway. Since 1990, fall-related injury DALY rates showed little change for the whole region, but patterns varied widely between countries. Some countries (eg, Belgium and Netherlands) have lost their favourable positions due to an increasing fall-related injury burden of disease since 1990. Conclusions From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region. It may be useful to assess which fall prevention measures have been taken in countries that showed continuous low or decreasing incidence, death and DALY rates despite ageing of the population.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: A systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, t

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age- standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Conclusions: Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.publishedVersio

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma : a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Conclusions Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Transport injuries and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides an overview of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by age and sex from 1990 to 2015. Transport injuries mortality in the EMR was estimated using the Global Burden of Disease mortality database, with corrections for ill-defined causes of death, using the cause of death ensemble modeling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient datasets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories. In 2015, 152,855 (95% uncertainty interval: 137,900-168,100) people died from TI in the EMR countries. Between 1990 and 2015, the years of life lost (YLL) rate per 100,000 due to TI decreased by 15.5%, while the years lived with disability (YLD) rate decreased by 10%, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate decreased by 16%. Although the burden of TI mortality and morbidity decreased over the last two decades, there is still a considerable burden that needs to be addressed by increasing awareness, enforcing laws, and improving road conditions.Peer reviewe

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances : global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.Peer reviewe

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286-873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65.4% decrease, 61.5-68.5) and in mortality rate (from 362.7 deaths [3304-392.0] per 100 000 children to 118.9 deaths [109.8-128.3] per 100 000 children; 67.2% decrease, 63.5-70.1). LRI incidence dedined globally (32.4% decrease, 27.2-37.5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11.4% decrease, 0.0-24.5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6.3% decrease, 6.1-6.3), and reductions in household air pollution (8.4%, 6 8-9.2). Interpretation Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths