Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts:reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”^*

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.</p

Overall survival after definitive chemoradiotherapy for patients with esophageal cancer:a retrospective cohort study

Definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) is a potentially curative therapy for esophageal cancer. As indications for dCRT differ widely, it is challenging to draw conclusions on outcomes and survival. The aim of this study was to evaluate overall survival (OS) and recurrence patterns according to indications for treatment. Patients who underwent dCRT (50.4 Gy concomitant with carboplatin/paclitaxel) for esophageal cancer between 2012 and 2022 were identified. Indications for dCRT were: cervical tumor, irresectable disease, unfit for surgery, and patient and/or physician preference. The primary endpoint was OS calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Secondary endpoints included the proportion of patients that completed the dCRT regimen, 30- and 90-day mortality, and disease recurrence. One hundred and fifty-seven patients were included (72.6% esophageal squamous cell carcinoma) with a median follow-up of 20 months (IQR 10.0-43.9). The full dCRT regimen was completed by 116 patients (73.9%). Thirty- and 90-day mortality were 2.5% and 8.3%, respectively. Median and 5-year OS for all patients were 22.9 months (95% CI 18.0-27.9) and 31.4%, respectively. The median OS per indication was 23.7 months (95% CI 6.5-40.8) for patients with cervical tumors, 10.9 months (95% 0.0-23.2) for irresectable disease, 28.2 months (95% CI 12.3-44.0) for unfit patients, and 22.9 months (95% CI 15.4-30.5) for patients' preference for dCRT (P = 0.11). Disease recurrence was observed in 74 patients (46%), located locoregionally (46%), distant (19%), or combined (35%). Patients who underwent dCRT had a 5-year OS of 31.4%, but OS differed according to indications for treatment with patients who had irresectable disease having the worst prognosis.</p

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events; 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: https://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/panmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).</p

Strategies for urban drought risk management: a comparison of ten large cities

10.1080/07900627.2016.1138398International Journal of Water Resources Development3312137-215

Landbouwinstrumentarium voor landelijke zoetwateranalyses : Beschrijving en ontwikkeladvies

Deze notitie geeft richting aan de verdere ontwikkeling van het landelijke landbouwinstrumentarium dat gewasopbrengstderving simuleert ten behoeve van landelijke beleidsanalyse en operationele toepassing

Een sneeuwbaleffect in het recht: hoe geboortegeslacht genderidentiteit m/v werd en uitdijt naar een x

In 2007 gaf de Hoge Raad aan dat uit artikel 8 EVRM een positieve verplichting kan voortvloeien voor de juridische erkenning van een neutrale genderidentiteit, mits er een maatschappelijke en juridische trend naar erkenning zou zijn. Nu, vijftien jaar later, lijkt er daadwerkelijk sprake van zo’n trend. Deze bijdrage gaat daarop in en beschrijft hoe een ‘derde geslacht’, een non-binaire genderidentiteit, vorm krijgt in de wisselwerking tussen wetgever en rechtspraak in Nederlan

Dealing with uncertainties in fresh water supply: experiences n the Netherlands

Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible to find solid ground for estimating probabilities for the relevant range of imaginable possible future developments. Yet, some of these may have profound impacts and consequences for society which could be reduced by timely proactive adaptation. In response to these and similar challenges, various approaches, methods and techniques have been proposed and are being developed to specifically address long-term strategy development under so-called deep uncertainty. This paper, first, offers a brief overview of developments in the field of planning under (deep) uncertainty. Next, we illustrate application of three different approaches to fresh water provision planning under uncertainty in case studies in the Netherlands: a resilience approach, oriented to (re) designing fresh water systems in such a way that they will be less vulnerable, resp. will be able to recover easily from future disturbances; a robustness approach, oriented to quantitative assessment of system performance for various system configurations (adaptation options) under a range of external disturbances, and an exploratory modeling approach, developed to explore policy effectiveness and system operation under a very wide set of assumptions about future conditions

Resilience in practice: Five principles to enable societies to cope with extreme weather events

The concept of resilience is used by many in different ways: as a scientific concept, as a guiding principle, as inspirational ‘buzzword’, or as a means to become more sustainable. Next to the academic debate on meaning and notions of resilience, the concept has been widely adopted and interpreted in policy contexts, particularly related to climate change and extreme weather events. In addition to having a positive connotation, resilience may cover aspects that are missed in common disaster risk management approaches. Although the precise definition of resilience may remain subject of discussion, the views on what is important to consider in the management of extreme weather events do not differ significantly. Therefore, this paper identifies the key implications of resilience thinking for the management of extreme weather events and translates these into five practical principles for policy making.Policy Analysi