Mathematical analysis of TB model with vaccination and saturated incidence rate

The model system of ordinary differential equations considers two classes of latently infected individuals, with different risk of becoming infectious. The system has positive solutions. By constructing a Lyapunov function, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, then the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. The Routh-Hurwitz criterion is used to prove the local stability of the endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. The model is illustrated using parameters applicable to Ethiopia. A variety of numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our main results

Tuberculosis in Ethiopia: Optimal intervention strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis

This paper searches for optimal strategies for the minimization of the number of high-risk latent and active tuberculosis (TB) infectious individuals using real data from Ethiopia. Optimal control theory is harnessed for investigation and analysis of the optimal combination of interventions for controlling the transmission of TB using distancing, case finding, and case holding as controls. We calculate and compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each of the strategies to determine the most effective combination of interventions for curbing the spread of the disease. Our findings suggest that, for optimal cost-effective management of the TB disease, the government of Ethiopia must focus more on prevention strategies such as isolation of infectious people, early TB patient detection, treatment, and educational programs. The optimal strategy is quantified through simulation

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Optimal Control Strategies for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Transmission in Ethiopia

Despite the recent progress of global control efforts, tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health threat worldwide, especially in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Furthermore, the emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has further complicated the situation. This study aims at identifying the most effective strategies for combating MDR-TB in Ethiopia. We first present a compartmental model of MDR-TB transmission dynamics in Ethiopia. The model is shown to have positive solutions, and the stability of the equilibrium points is analyzed. Then, we extend the model by incorporating time-dependent control variables. These control variables are vaccination, distancing, and treatment for DS-TB and MDR-TB. Finally, the optimality system is numerically simulated by considering different combinations of the strategies, and their cost effectiveness is analysed. Our finding shows that, among single control strategies, the successful treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) is the most effective control factor for eliminating MDR-TB transmission in Ethiopia. Furthermore, within the six dual control strategies, the combination of distancing and successful treatment of DS-TB is less costly and more effective than other strategies. Finally, out of the triple control strategies, the combination of distancing, successful treatment for DS-TB, and treatment for MDR-TB is the most efficient strategy for curbing the MDR-TB disease in Ethiopia. Thus, to reduce MDR-TB efficiently, it is recommended that authorities focus on treating MDR-TB, effective treatment of DS-TB, and promoting social distancing through public health education and awareness programs