Model Selection and Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR model

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs, with an automated efficient alternative, based on the Adaptive Metropolis algorithm of Roberts and Rosenthal, (2009). Developing the adaptive MCMC framework for Bayesian CVAR models allows for efficient estimation of posterior parameters in significantly higher dimensional CVAR series than previously possible with existing griddy Gibbs samplers. For a n-dimensional CVAR series, the matrix-variate posterior is in dimension $3n^2 + n$, with significant correlation present between the blocks of matrix random variables. We also treat the rank of the CVAR model as a random variable and perform joint inference on the rank and model parameters. This is achieved with a Bayesian posterior distribution defined over both the rank and the CVAR model parameters, and inference is made via Bayes Factor analysis of rank. Practically the adaptive sampler also aids in the development of automated Bayesian cointegration models for algorithmic trading systems considering instruments made up of several assets, such as currency baskets. Previously the literature on financial applications of CVAR trading models typically only considers pairs trading (n=2) due to the computational cost of the griddy Gibbs. We are able to extend under our adaptive framework to $n >> 2$ and demonstrate an example with n = 10, resulting in a posterior distribution with parameters up to dimension 310. By also considering the rank as a random quantity we can ensure our resulting trading models are able to adjust to potentially time varying market conditions in a coherent statistical framework.Comment: to appear journal Bayesian Analysi

Unit on Volume and Surface Area

To solidify computation of volume and surface area of rectangular prisms and cylinders using a technology tool, and comparing volumes and surface areas between objects. Students will be able to… • setup an Excel spreadsheet for the calculation of volume and surface area of any two rectangular prisms and any two cylinders, • check their setup to assure accuracy of their model, • compare volume between rectangular prisms of different dimensions, • compare surface area between rectangular prisms of similar volume, • generalize minimizing surface area of a rectangular prism, • compare volume between cylinders of different dimensions, • compare surface area between cylinders of similar volume, • compare volume between rectangular prisms and cylinders of similar dimension

Lessons from Nuclear Reversal: Why States Reverse Ballistic Missile Policy

Nuclear reversal is the decision by a state, which has a nuclear weapon or the technical capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon, to give up their nuclear weapons program. This paper employs the tenets of nuclear missile reversal to the dismantling of ballistic missile programs through case studies of the six states (Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, and South Africa) that have abandoned their missile programs since 1987. The study hopes to promote further research concerning the behaviors associated with abandonment of nuclear reversal to that of ballistic missile reversal. This research concludes that the principles of nuclear reversal do apply to ballistic missile reversal, in much the same way they explain nuclear reversal. There is no clear overarching explanation, with all of the tenets having merit in the abandonment of programs

Multiple Queens versus Multiple Mates: A Test of the Polygyny/Polyandry Tradeoff Hypothesis in the Ant Veromessor pergandei

According to evolutionary theory, cooperation should evolve most easily in closely related groups. In colonies of ants, bees, and wasps, within-colony relatedness is maximized when all offspring are descended from a single queen mated with a single male. However, in many species colonies are not composed of strictly nuclear families, suggesting there may also be benefits to greater genetic diversity. To increase genetic diversity, a queen can mate with multiple males, termed polyandry, or join with other queens to cohabitate and raise offspring together, termed polygyny. Both options have associated costs, leading to an expected tradeoff in whether queens invest in polygyny or polyandry. In this project, I tested the polygyny/polyandry tradeoff hypothesis in the desert seed harvester ant Veromessor pergandei. This species forms three different types of colonies across its geographic range: single queen, polygynous, and a temporary form of polygyny where colonies begin with multiple queens but they aggressively compete until only one queen is left alive. If the polygyny/polyandry tradeoff hypothesis explains their mating behaviors, I predict that solo-founding queens should mate with more males than polygynous queens, and polyandry would be higher in temporary groups than in permanent groups. Queens and their offspring from each geographic area were genotyped at six highly variable microsatellite loci to infer the number of males with which the queen had mated. Results showed tentative support for a tradeoff between polygyny and polyandry, but implicated a more complex array of factors then genetic variation only influencing mating frequency in V. pergandei

Dreams and Expectations: The Paris Diary of Albert Brisbane, American Fourierist

IN 1828 Albert Brisbane (1809-1890) persuaded his wealthy father to send him to Europe in order to find out what is the work of man on this earth? What was he put here for and what has he to do? 1 In Europe Brisbane became interested in French utopianism, especially the ideas of Claude-Henri de Rouvroy (Comte de Saint-Simon, 1760-1825) and Charles Fourier (1772-1837). Brisbane returned to the United States in 1834 and, until his death in 1890, devoted his wealth and energies to establishing an American Fourierist movement

Effects of diversification among assets in an agent-based market model

We extend to the multi-asset case the framework of a discrete time model of a single asset financial market developed in Ghoulmie et al (2005). In particular, we focus on adaptive agents with threshold behavior allocating their resources among two assets. We explore numerically the effect of this diversification as an additional source of complexity in the financial market and we discuss its destabilizing role. We also point out the relevance of these studies for financial decision making.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the Complex Systems II Conference at the Australian National University, 4-7 December 2007, Canberra, ACT Australi

The Following Extract of the Charge of the Hon. Chief Justice Mellen, Delivered on the Late Circuit, is Communicated to the Public at the Request of the Grand Juries, for the Counties of York, Cumberland, and Oxford

Extract of the charge issued by Honorable Chief Justice Prentiss Mellen to the first grand jury seated in Maine followed the establishment of statehood. Chief Justice Mellen of Portland, was appointed to the court by Maine\u27s first Governor, William King. His service began July 1, 1820 and concluded October 11, 1834. “It is believed that a charge of this nature, from the Court to a Grand Jury, is calculated to make good impressions : to diffuse in no small degree a knowledge of our criminal code, enacted for the prevention and punishment of offences : to give information to the citizens, with regard to their obligations to the government, and to each other: and to increase their respect for those principles and laws which ought to govern the conduct of all : especially, if at the same time, they perceive the tribunals of Justice anxiously endeavoring to give them their aid, and sanction by a calm, impartial and unwearied discharge of their duty.”https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mainebicentennial/1007/thumbnail.jp

Charter School Leadership Teams: Exploring the Effects of Leadership Structures on School-Level Achievement

This quantitative study adds to previous research on school leadership effects on school performance. Utilizing existing school level data from Washington D.C. charter schools, this study explores the shift to distributed leadership structures and presence of emerging school-level leadership roles, including academic, behavior, and operational leaders. Then using organizational rosters to create new leadership variables, the study completes controlled multivariate regression modeling to explore the relationships between the presence or absence of these roles with school performance. Overall, the findings show that leadership predictors, despite having intuitive and theoretical links to school performance, had effects of less than 1% on the model’s ability to explain the 2019 school performance. This is likely because 75% of the variability was explained by control variables, including the best predictors of school performance—the prior year’s performance and reenrollment. Beyond the modeling statistics, the additional exploratory data analysis of tables correlating performance by ward and convergence of titles provide insights that could inform further research, policy, and practice in the charter school sector and in the education-reform movement

Schooling the Freed People: Teaching, Learning, and the Struggle for Black Freedom, 1861-1876

A Post-Civil War Inspection of the Struggle for Black Education Scholars interested in the role of education during the transition from slavery to freedom will henceforth have to consider both the data and the arguments in Schooling the Freed People. The reason is simple: those o...

Alien Registration- Mellen, Bridget F. (Phippsburg, Sagadahoc County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/9714/thumbnail.jp