A review of regional and global estimates of unconventional gas resources

This Research Report assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at the regional and global level. Focusing in particular on shale gas, it provides a comprehensive summary and comparison of the estimates that have been produced to date. It also examines the methods by which these resource estimates have been produced the strengths and weaknesses of those methods, the range of uncertainty in the results and the factors that are relevant to their interpretation

A bridge to a low carbon future? Modelling the long-term global potential of natural gas

This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL (‘TIAM-UCL’) to provide robust quantitative insights into the future of natural gas in the energy system and in particular whether or not gas has the potential to act as a ‘bridge’ to a low-carbon future on both a global and regional basis out to 2050. This report first explores the dynamics of a scenario that disregards any need to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such a scenario results in a large uptake in the production and consumption of all fossil fuels, with coal in particular dominating the electricity system. It is unconventional sources of gas production that account for much of the rise in natural gas production; with shale gas exceeding 1 Tcm after 2040. Gas consumption grows in all sectors apart from the electricity sector, and eventually becomes cost effective both as a marine fuel (as liquefied natural gas) and in medium goods vehicles (as compressed natural gas). It next examines how different gas market structures affect natural gas production, consumption, and trade patterns. For the two different scenarios constructed, one continued current regionalised gas markets, which are characterised by very different prices in different regions with these prices often based on oil indexation, while the other allowed a global gas price to form based on gas supply-demand fundamentals. It finds only a small change in overall global gas production levels between these but a major difference in levels of gas trade and so conclude that if gas exporters choose to defend oil indexation in the short-term, they may end up destroying their export markets in longer term. A move towards pricing gas internationally, based on supply-demand dynamics, is thus shown to be crucial if the if they are to maintain their current levels of exports. Nevertheless, it is also shown that, regardless of how gas is priced in the future, scenarios leading to a 2oC temperature rise generally have larger pipeline and LNG exports than scenarios that lead to a higher temperature increase. For pipeline trade, the adoption of any ambitious emissions reduction agreement results in little loss of markets and could (if carbon capture and storage is available) actually lead to a much greater level of exports. For LNG trade, because of the significant role that gas can play in replacing future coal demand in the emerging economies in Asia, markets that are largely supplied by LNG at present, we demonstrate that export countries should actively pursue an ambitious global agreement on GHG emissions mitigation if they want to expand their exports. These results thus have important implications for the negotiating positions of gas-exporting countries in the ongoing discussions on agreeing an ambitious global agreement on emissions reduction

The future role of natural gas in the UK: a bridge to nowhere?

The UK has ambitious, statutory long-term climate targets that will require deep decarbonisation of its energy system. One key question facing policymakers is the role of natural gas both during the transition towards, and in the achievement of, a future low-carbon energy system. Here we assess a range of possible futures for the UK, and find that gas is unlikely to act as a cost-effective ‘bridge’ to a decarbonised UK energy system. There is also limited scope for gas in power generation after 2030 if the UK is to meet its emission reduction targets, in the absence of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Without CCS, a ‘second dash for gas’ while providing short-term gains in reducing emissions, is unlikely to be the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions, and could result in stranded assets and compromise the UK's decarbonisation ambitions. In such a case, gas use in 2050 is estimated at only 10% of its 2010 level. However, with significant CCS deployment by 2050, natural gas could remain at 50–60% of the 2010 level, primarily in the industrial (including hydrogen production) and power generation sectors

Content and discontent: a qualitative exploration of obstacles to elearning engagement in medical students

BACKGROUND: Elearning is ubiquitous in healthcare professions education. Its equivalence to ‘traditional’ educational delivery methods is well established. There is a research imperative to clarify when and how to use elearning most effectively to mitigate the potential of it becoming merely a ‘disruptive technology.’ Research has begun to broadly identify challenges encountered by elearning users. In this study, we explore in depth the perceived obstacles to elearning engagement amongst medical students. Sensitising concepts of achievement emotions and the cognitive demands of multi-tasking highlight why students’ deeply emotional responses to elearning may be so important in their learning. METHODS: This study used focus groups as a data collection tool. A purposeful sample of 31 participated. Iterative data gathering and analysis phases employed a constant comparative approach to generate themes firmly grounded in participant experience. RESULTS: Key themes that emerged from the data included a sense of injustice, passivity and a feeling of being ‘lost at sea’. The actual content of the elearning resource provided important context. CONCLUSIONS: The identified themes have strong emotional foundations. These responses, interpreted through the lens of achievement emotions, have not previously been described. Appreciation of their importance is of benefit to educators involved in curriculum development or delivery. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12909-016-0710-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Unconventional gas: potential energy market impacts in the European Union

In the interest of effective policymaking, this report seeks to clarify certain controversies and identify key gaps in the evidence-base relating to unconventional gas. The scope of this report is restricted to the economic impact of unconventional gas on energy markets. As such, it principally addresses such issues as the energy mix, energy prices, supplies, consumption, and trade flows. Whilst this study touches on coal bed methane and tight gas, its predominant focus is on shale gas, which the evidence at this time suggests will be the form of unconventional gas with the most growth potential in the short- to medium-term. This report considers the prospects for the indigenous production of shale gas within the EU-27 Member States. It evaluates the available evidence on resource size, extractive technology, resource access and market access. This report also considers the implications for the EU of large-scale unconventional gas production in other parts of the world. This acknowledges the fact that many changes in the dynamics of energy supply can only be understood in the broader global context. It also acknowledges that the EU is a major importer of energy, and that it is therefore heavily affected by developments in global energy markets that are largely out of its control.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

A framework to evaluate hydrogen as fuel in international shipping

The shipping industry is today challenged by tighter regulations on efficiency, air pollution and the need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The decarbonisation of the global energy system could be achieved with the use of alternative energy and fuels, and so a widespread switch to the adoption of alternative fuel in shipping could be experienced within the coming decades. Lately, many scenarios of alternative fuels in shipping have been investigated. Among the options of alternative fuels with different propulsion technologies, hydrogen with marine fuel cells (FCs) represent an example of such an alternative fuel. This paper proposes a framework to examine a possible transition path for the use of hydrogen in shipping within the context of decarbonisation of the wider global energy system. The framework is based on a soft- linking the global integrated assessment model (TIAM-UCL) and the shipping model (GloTraM). Initial results from this work-in-progress describe the trajectories of hydrogen prices, the characteristic of the hydrogen fleet and the consequences for shipping CO2 emissions, the hydrogen infrastructure requirements, the use of hydrogen in other sectors, and the consequences for global energy system CO2 emissions

Emissions budgets for shipping in a 2°C and a 4°C global warming scenario, and implications for operational efficiency

To achieve the widely accepted goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions must reduce drastically over the coming decades. Under this premise, the assumption that the shipping industry realises the same proportionate CO2 emission reductions as all other sectors on average has strong implications. This paper begins by considering an appropriate global CO2 emissions budget associated with a temperature rise of 2°C. Next, a range of future demand scenarios for international transport shipping are presented. Meeting the demand in any of the scenarios, while remaining within the emissions budget, requires stringent increases in overall operational efficiency. Different emissions and efficiency trajectories – with efficiency expressed in terms of the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) – in line with the 2°C target are analysed. The potential short and long term levers of operational efficiency are explored

Slow equivariant lump dynamics on the two sphere

The low-energy, rotationally equivariant dynamics of n CP^1 lumps on S^2 is studied within the approximation of geodesic motion in the moduli space of static solutions. The volume and curvature properties of this moduli space are computed. By lifting the geodesic flow to the completion of an n-fold cover of the moduli space, a good understanding of nearly singular lump dynamics within this approximation is obtained.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure