Changing How We Discount to Make Public Policy More Responsive To Citizens'Time Preferences

Laws and regulations have both benefits and costs, comparisons of which provide useful information. When such benefits and costs occur over time it is normal practice to discount them, with costs in the distant future considered less important than those occurring in the present, and distant benefits less valuable than present benefits. Conventionally, this discounting is done at a constant rate each period'so-called exponential discounting' with both cost and benefit streams being treated as if they were financial assets. However, humans are not exponential discounters. Rather, people tend to discount more than exponentially in the short run but less than exponentially in the long run. Such 'hyperbolic' discounting is empirically ubiquitous but neglected administratively. The recent "data quality act" requires that information utilized by Federal agencies "adhere to a basic standard of quality, including objectivity, utility and integrity." Here we argue that exponential discounting of many benefit streams, particularly non-pecuniary ones, fails the "data quality" test and should be abandoned in favor of empirically-observed hyperbolic discounting.

The Effect of Map Boundary on Estimates of Landscape Resistance to Animal Movement

BACKGROUND: Artificial boundaries on a map occur when the map extent does not cover the entire area of study; edges on the map do not exist on the ground. These artificial boundaries might bias the results of animal dispersal models by creating artificial barriers to movement for model organisms where there are no barriers for real organisms. Here, we characterize the effects of artificial boundaries on calculations of landscape resistance to movement using circuit theory. We then propose and test a solution to artificially inflated resistance values whereby we place a buffer around the artificial boundary as a substitute for the true, but unknown, habitat. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We randomly assigned landscape resistance values to map cells in the buffer in proportion to their occurrence in the known map area. We used circuit theory to estimate landscape resistance to organism movement and gene flow, and compared the output across several scenarios: a habitat-quality map with artificial boundaries and no buffer, a map with a buffer composed of randomized habitat quality data, and a map with a buffer composed of the true habitat quality data. We tested the sensitivity of the randomized buffer to the possibility that the composition of the real but unknown buffer is biased toward high or low quality. We found that artificial boundaries result in an overestimate of landscape resistance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Artificial map boundaries overestimate resistance values. We recommend the use of a buffer composed of randomized habitat data as a solution to this problem. We found that resistance estimated using the randomized buffer did not differ from estimates using the real data, even when the composition of the real data was varied. Our results may be relevant to those interested in employing Circuitscape software in landscape connectivity and landscape genetics studies

Atomic Beams

Contains research objectives and reports on four research projects

Time's up. descriptive epidemiology of multi-morbidity and time spent on health related activity by older Australians: a time use survey.

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Most Western health systems remain single illness orientated despite the growing prevalence of multi-morbidity. Identifying how much time people with multiple chronic conditions spend managing their health will help policy makers and health service providers make decisions about areas of patient need for support. This article presents findings from an Australian study concerning the time spent on health related activity by older adults (aged 50 years and over), most of whom had multiple chronic conditions. A recall questionnaire was developed, piloted, and adjusted. Sampling was undertaken through three bodies; the Lung Foundation Australia (COPD sub-sample), National Diabetes Services Scheme (Diabetes sub-sample) and National Seniors Australia (Seniors sub-sample). Questionnaires were mailed out during 2011 to 10,600 older adults living in Australia. 2540 survey responses were received and analysed. Descriptive analyses were completed to obtain median values for the hours spent on each activity per month. The mean number of chronic conditions was 3.7 in the COPD sub-sample, 3.4 in the Diabetes sub-sample and 2.0 in the NSA sub-sample. The study identified a clear trend of increased time use associated with increased number of chronic conditions. Median monthly time use was 5-16 hours per month overall for our three sub-samples. For respondents in the top decile with five or more chronic conditions the median time use was equivalent to two to three hours per day, and if exercise is included in the calculations, respondents spent from between five and eight hours per day: an amount similar to full-time work. Multi-morbidity imposes considerable time burdens on patients. Ageing is associated with increasing rates of multi-morbidity. Many older adults are facing high demands on their time to manage their health in the face of decreasing energy and mobility. Their time use must be considered in health service delivery and health system reform.National Health and Medical Research Counci

A global analysis of management capacity and ecological outcomes in terrestrial protected areas

Protecting important sites is a key strategy for halting the loss of biodiversity. However, our understanding of the relationship between management inputs and biodiversity outcomes in protected areas (PAs) remains weak. Here, we examine biodiversity outcomes using species population trends in PAs derived from the Living Planet Database in relation to management data derived from the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) database for 217 population time‐series from 73 PAs. We found a positive relationship between our METT‐based scores for Capacity and Resources and changes in vertebrate abundance, consistent with the hypothesis that PAs require adequate resourcing to halt biodiversity loss. Additionally, PA age was negatively correlated with trends for the mammal subsets and PA size negatively correlated with population trends in the global subset. Our study highlights the paucity of appropriate data for rigorous testing of the role of management in maintaining species populations across multiple sites, and describes ways to improve our understanding of PA performance

Observation of Squeezed Light in the 2 Μm Region

We present the generation and detection of squeezed light in the 2  μm wavelength region. This experiment is a crucial step in realizing the quantum noise reduction techniques that will be required for future generations of gravitational-wave detectors. Squeezed vacuum is generated via degenerate optical parametric oscillation from a periodically poled potassium titanyl phosphate crystal, in a dual resonant cavity. The experiment uses a frequency stabilized 1984 nm thulium fiber laser, and squeezing is detected using balanced homodyne detection with extended InGaAs photodiodes. We have measured 4.0±0.1  dB of squeezing and 10.5±0.5  dB of antisqueezing relative to the shot noise level in the audio frequency band, limited by photodiode quantum efficiency. The inferred squeezing level directly after the optical parametric oscillator, after accounting for known losses and phase noise, is 10.7 dB

Trends in, and predictors of, anxiety and specific worries following colposcopy: a 12-month longitudinal study

Objective Little is known about which women are at greatest risk of adverse psychological after-effects following colposcopy. This study examined time trends in, and identified predictors of, anxiety and specific worries over 12 months. Methods Women attending two hospital-based colposcopy clinics for abnormal cervical cytology were invited to complete psychosocial questionnaires at 4, 8 and 12 months following colposcopy. General anxiety and screening-specific worries (about cervical cancer, having sex and future fertility) were measured. Generalised estimating equations were used to assess associations between socio-demographic, lifestyle and clinical variables and risk of psychological outcomes. Results Of 584 women initially recruited, 429, 343 and 303 completed questionnaires at 4, 8 and 12 months, respectively. Screening-specific worries declined significantly over time but were still relatively high at 12 months: 23%, 39% and 18% for worries about cervical cancer, fertility and having sex, respectively. Anxiety remained stable (20%) over time. Risks of cervical cancer worry and anxiety were both almost double in women without private health insurance (cervical cancer worry: OR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.25–2.61; anxiety: OR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.20–2.84). Younger women (<40 years) had higher risk of fertility worries. Non-Irish women had higher risk of anxiety (OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.13–4.01). Conclusions Screening-specific worries declined over time but anxiety remained stable. Notable proportions of women still reported adverse outcomes 12 months following colposcopy, with predictors varying between outcomes. Women in socio-demographically vulnerable groups were at greatest risk of adverse psychological outcomes. This information could inform development of interventions to alleviate psychological distress post-colposcopy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd