Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Acute military psychiatric casualties from the war in Iraq

Background: The view that most military personnel evacuated from war zones are suffering from combat stress reactions, or are otherwise traumatised by the horrors of war, has an impact on all aspects of military psychiatry. Aims: To delineate the reasons for psychiatric aeromedical evacuation from Iraq from the start of build-up of UK forces in January 2003 until the end of October that year, 6 months after the end of formal hostilities. Method: A retrospective study was conducted of field and in-patient psychiatric assessments of 116 military personnel evacuated to the UK military psychiatric in-patient facility in Catterick Garrison. Results: Evacuees were mainly non-combatants (69%). A significant proportion were in reserve service (21%) and had a history of contact with mental health services (37%). Only 3% had a combat stress reaction. In over 85% of cases evacuation was for low mood attributed to separation from friends or family, or difficulties adjusting to the environment. Conclusions: These findings have implications especially for screening for suitability for deployment, and for understanding any longer-term mental health problems arising in veterans from Iraq

The specialty choices of graduates from Brighton and Sussex Medical School: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Since 2007 junior doctors in the UK have had to make major career decisions at a point when previously many had not yet chosen a specialty. This study examined when doctors in this new system make specialty choices, which factors influence choices, and whether doctors who choose a specialty they were interested in at medical school are more confident in their choice than those doctors whose interests change post-graduation. METHODS Two cohorts of students in their penultimate year at one medical school (n = 227/239) were asked which specialty interested them as a career. Two years later, 210/227 were sent a questionnaire measuring actual specialty chosen, confidence, influence of perceptions of the specialty and experiences on choice, satisfaction with medicine, personality, self-efficacy, and demographics. Medical school and post-graduation choices in the same category were deemed 'stable'. Predictors of stability, and of not having chosen a specialty, were calculated using bootstrapped logistic regression. Differences between specialties on questionnaire factors were analysed. RESULTS 50% responded (n = 105/277; 44% of the 239 Year 4 students). 65% specialty choices were 'stable'. Factors univariately associated with stability were specialty chosen, having enjoyed the specialty at medical school or since starting work, having first considered the specialty earlier. A regression found doctors who chose psychiatry were more likely to have changed choice than those who chose general practice. Confidence in the choice was not associated with stability. Those who chose general practice valued lifestyle factors. A psychiatry choice was associated with needing a job and using one's intellect to help others. The decision to choose surgical training tended to be made early. Not having applied for specialty training was associated with being lower on agreeableness and conscientiousness. CONCLUSION Medical school experiences are important in specialty choice but experiences post-graduation remain significant, particularly in some specialties (psychiatry in our sample). Career guidance is important at medical school and should be continued post-graduation, with senior clinicians supported in advising juniors. Careers advice in the first year post-graduation may be particularly important, especially for specialties which have difficulty recruiting or are poorly represented at medical school

Internet Facilitated Rape: A Multivariate Model of Offense Behavior

In recent years there has been a significant increase in individuals reporting they have been raped by someone they have met through the internet (IFR). Previous literature has primarily focused on child victims, hence, the overriding aim of this study is to further our understanding of IFR in terms of overt crime scene behaviour. The sample consisted of 144 single IFR cases and two comparative samples of age-matched non-IFR offenders (confidence approach and surprise approach). Thirty-eight crime scene actions were coded as either present or absent for each offence. Findings suggest that the platforms IFR offenders use to meet their victims were not suggestive of the behaviour they were likely to display. In terms of specific offence behaviours, the IFR and confidence approach samples were considerably similar and both samples were comparatively different from the surprise approach cases. A smallest space analysis of the IFR sample revealed three distinct themes of behaviour with 71% of cases being assigned to a dominant behavioural theme. The practical and theoretical implications of the findings will be discussed

Understanding the landscape of policing when responding to vulnerability: Interviews with frontline officers across Wales

The National Adverse Childhood Experiences Approach to Policing Vulnerability: Early Action Together (E.A.T) programme is a unique collaboration between Public Health Wales and the four Welsh Police Forces and Police and Crime Commissioners, in partnership with Criminal Justice, Youth Justice and third sector organisations, funded by the Home Office to deliver a national programme of change across Wales. Whilst public safety, welfare and vulnerability is the highest demand for UK police forces, frontline officers and staff face many challenges responding to vulnerable individuals. The E.A.T. programme sets out to address these challenges and transform how police and partner agencies work together to respond to vulnerability beyond statutory safeguarding. Recognising the importance of early intervention and preventative action, this programme will develop a whole systems response to vulnerability to ensure pathways for support are available for the police when vulnerability falls below thresholds for statutory support. Building into current systems, this work will utilise existing community assets to develop a bank of resources for police and partners to draw upon when supporting people in their communities. This report is the first in a series of reports that has sought to understand the landscape in policing vulnerability across Wales, which in turn will support the E.A.T programme approach. It outlines the reality of responding to vulnerable individuals for frontline officers, the enablers and blockers in current service delivery and examines the introduction of the Adverse Childhood Experience Trauma-Informed Multi-agency Early Action Together training (ACE TIME training). This report provides the individual, situational and organisational context within which to view post ACE TIME training findings and provide key recommendations when preparing to deliver a National transformational and cultural change programme within policing. To capture the rich, complex picture of policing vulnerability 152 semi-structured interviews with a range of different policing roles across Wales were conducted. A review of the literature provided an understanding of the nature of vulnerability demand, examined key aspects that influence responses to incidents of vulnerability and explored potential factors that may affect engagement with the transformational change the E.A.T programme attempts to achieve. A number of key areas emerged from the literature that informed interviews with frontline staff: (1) Previous knowledge and understanding of vulnerability through training, systems, policy and guidance; (2) Understanding and attitudes towards ‘trauma-informed’ approaches and ACEs, in a police context; (3) Experiences and views on multi-agency working and collaborative working; (4) Workforce wellbeing, with a strong evidential link between the importance of wellbeing, organisational support and organisational belonging; (5) Attitudes and perceptions of transformational and organisational change programmes within policing

Antiretroviral treatment use, co-morbidities and clinical outcomes among Aboriginal participants in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD)

Background: There are few data regarding clinical care and outcomes of Indigenous Australians living with HIV and it is unknown if these differ from non-Indigenous HIV-positive Australians. Methods: AHOD commenced enrolment in 1999 and is a prospective cohort of HIV-positive participants attending HIV outpatient services throughout Australia, of which 20 (74 %) sites report Indigenous status. Data were collected up until March 2013 and compared between Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants. Person-year methods were used to compare death rates, rates of loss to follow-up and rates of laboratory testing during follow-up between Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants. Factors associated with time to first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimen change were assessed using Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional hazards methods. Results: Forty-two of 2197 (1.9 %) participants were Indigenous. Follow-up amongst Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants was 332 & 16270 person-years, respectively. HIV virological suppression was achieved in similar proportions of Indigenous and non-Indigenous participants 2 years after initiation of cART (81.0 % vs 76.5 %, p = 0.635). Indigenous status was not independently associated with shorter time to change from first- to second-line cART (aHR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.51-1.76, p = 0.957). Compared with non-Indigenous participants, Indigenous participants had significantly less frequent laboratory monitoring of CD4 count (rate:2.76 tests/year vs 2.97 tests/year, p = 0.025) and HIV viral load (rate:2.53 tests/year vs 2.93 tests/year, p < 0.001), while testing rates for lipids and blood glucose were almost half that of non-indigenous participants (rate:0.43/year vs 0.71 tests/year, p < 0.001). Loss to follow-up (23.8 % vs 29.8 %, p = 0.496) and death (2.4 % vs 7.1 %, p = 0.361) occurred in similar proportions of indigenous and non-Indigenous participants, respectively, although causes of death in both groups were mostly non-HIV-related. Conclusions: As far as we are aware, these are the first data comparing clinical outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous HIV-positive Australians. The forty-two Indigenous participants represent over 10 % of all Indigenous Australians ever diagnosed with HIV. Although outcomes were not significantly different, Indigenous patients had lower rates of laboratory testing for HIV and lipid/glucose parameters. Given the elevated risk of cardiovascular disease in the general Indigenous community, the additional risk factor of HIV infection warrants further focus on modifiable risk factors to maximise life expectancy in this population

North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change