Enhancing Social-Emotional Health and Wellbeing in the Early Years (E-SEE): A study protocol of a community-based randomised controlled trial with process and economic evaluations of the incredible years infant and toddler parenting programmes, delivered in a proportionate universal model

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Introduction: Behavioural and mental disorders have become a public health crisis and by 2020 may surpass physical illness as a major cause of disability. Early prevention is key. Two Incredible Years (IY) parent programmes that aim to enhance child well-being and development, IY Infant and IY Toddler, will be delivered and evaluated in a proportionate universal intervention model called Enhancing Social-Emotional Health and Wellbeing in the Early Years (E-SEE) Steps. The main research question is: Does E-SEE Steps enhance child social emotional well-being at 20 months when compared with services as usual? Methods and analysis: E-SEE Steps will be delivered in community settings by Early Years Children's Services and/or Public Health staff across local authorities. Parents of children aged 8 weeks or less, identified by health visitors, children's centre staff or self-referral, are eligible for participation in the trial. The randomisation allocation ratio is 5:1 (intervention to control). All intervention parents will receive an Incredible Years Infant book (universal level), and may be offered the Infant and/or Toddler group-based programme/s - based on parent depression scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire or child social emotional well-being scores on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire: Social Emotional, Second Edition (ASQ:SE-2). Control group parents will receive services as usual. A process and economic evaluation are included. The primary outcome for the study is social emotional well-being, assessed at 20 months, using the ASQ:SE-2. Intention-to-treat and per protocol analyses will be conducted. Clustering and hierarchical effects will be accounted for using linear mixed models. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approvals have been obtained from the University of York Education Ethics Committee (ref: FC15/03, 10 August 2015) and UK NHS REC 5 (ref: 15/WA/0178, 22 May 2015. The current protocol is Version 9, 26 February 2018. The sponsor of the trial is the University of York. Dissemination of findings will be via peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and public events.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world’s largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification - primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities - with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today

Pharmacoeconomic analysis of adjuvant oral capecitabine vs intravenous 5-FU/LV in Dukes' C colon cancer: the X-ACT trial

Oral capecitabine (Xeloda<sup>®</sup>) is an effective drug with favourable safety in adjuvant and metastatic colorectal cancer. Oxaliplatin-based therapy is becoming standard for Dukes' C colon cancer in patients suitable for combination therapy, but is not yet approved by the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the adjuvant setting. Adjuvant capecitabine is at least as effective as 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin (5-FU/LV), with significant superiority in relapse-free survival and a trend towards improved disease-free and overall survival. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant capecitabine from payer (UK National Health Service (NHS)) and societal perspectives. We used clinical trial data and published sources to estimate incremental direct and societal costs and gains in quality-adjusted life months (QALMs). Acquisition costs were higher for capecitabine than 5-FU/LV, but higher 5-FU/LV administration costs resulted in 57% lower chemotherapy costs for capecitabine. Capecitabine vs 5-FU/LV-associated adverse events required fewer medications and hospitalisations (cost savings £3653). Societal costs, including patient travel/time costs, were reduced by >75% with capecitabine vs 5-FU/LV (cost savings £1318), with lifetime gain in QALMs of 9 months. Medical resource utilisation is significantly decreased with capecitabine vs 5-FU/LV, with cost savings to the NHS and society. Capecitabine is also projected to increase life expectancy vs 5-FU/LV. Cost savings and better outcomes make capecitabine a preferred adjuvant therapy for Dukes' C colon cancer. This pharmacoeconomic analysis strongly supports replacing 5-FU/LV with capecitabine in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer in the UK

Reactive-Atom Scattering from Liquid Crystals at the Liquid-Vacuum Interface : [C12mim][BF4] and 4-Cyano-4′-Octylbiphenyl (8CB)

Two complementary approaches were used to study the liquid-vacuum interface of the liquid-crystalline ionic liquid 1-dodecyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate ([C12mim][BF4]) in the smectic A (SmA) and isotropic phases. O atoms with two distinct incident translational energies were scattered from the surface of [C12mim][BF4]. Angle-dependent time-of-flight distributions and OH yields, respectively, were recorded from high- and low-energy O atoms. There were no significant changes in the measurements using either approach, nor the properties derived from them, accompanying the transition from the SmA to the isotropic phase. This indicates that the surface structure of [C12mim][BF4] remains essentially unchanged across the phase boundary, implying that the bulk order and surface structure are not strongly correlated for this material. This effect is ascribed to the strong propensity for the outer surfaces of ionic liquids to be dominated by alkyl chains, over an underlying layer rich in anions and cation head groups, whether or not the bulk material is a liquid crystal. In a comparative study, the OH yield from the surface of the liquid crystal, 8CB, was found to be affected by the bulk order, showing a surprising step increase at the SmA-nematic transition temperature, whose origin is the subject of speculation

Detecting glaucoma from multi-modal data using probabilistic deep learning

Objective: To assess the accuracy of probabilistic deep learning models to discriminate normal eyes and eyes with glaucoma from fundus photographs and visual fields. Design: Algorithm development for discriminating normal and glaucoma eyes using data from multicenter, cross-sectional, case-control study. Subjects and participants: Fundus photograph and visual field data from 1,655 eyes of 929 normal and glaucoma subjects to develop and test deep learning models and an independent group of 196 eyes of 98 normal and glaucoma patients to validate deep learning models. Main outcome measures: Accuracy and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Methods: Fundus photographs and OCT images were carefully examined by clinicians to identify glaucomatous optic neuropathy (GON). When GON was detected by the reader, the finding was further evaluated by another clinician. Three probabilistic deep convolutional neural network (CNN) models were developed using 1,655 fundus photographs, 1,655 visual fields, and 1,655 pairs of fundus photographs and visual fields collected from Compass instruments. Deep learning models were trained and tested using 80% of fundus photographs and visual fields for training set and 20% of the data for testing set. Models were further validated using an independent validation dataset. The performance of the probabilistic deep learning model was compared with that of the corresponding deterministic CNN model. Results: The AUC of the deep learning model in detecting glaucoma from fundus photographs, visual fields, and combined modalities using development dataset were 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.89–0.92), 0.89 (0.88–0.91), and 0.94 (0.92–0.96), respectively. The AUC of the deep learning model in detecting glaucoma from fundus photographs, visual fields, and both modalities using the independent validation dataset were 0.94 (0.92–0.95), 0.98 (0.98–0.99), and 0.98 (0.98–0.99), respectively. The AUC of the deep learning model in detecting glaucoma from fundus photographs, visual fields, and both modalities using an early glaucoma subset were 0.90 (0.88,0.91), 0.74 (0.73,0.75), 0.91 (0.89,0.93), respectively. Eyes that were misclassified had significantly higher uncertainty in likelihood of diagnosis compared to eyes that were classified correctly. The uncertainty level of the correctly classified eyes is much lower in the combined model compared to the model based on visual fields only. The AUCs of the deterministic CNN model using fundus images, visual field, and combined modalities based on the development dataset were 0.87 (0.85,0.90), 0.88 (0.84,0.91), and 0.91 (0.89,0.94), and the AUCs based on the independent validation dataset were 0.91 (0.89,0.93), 0.97 (0.95,0.99), and 0.97 (0.96,0.99), respectively, while the AUCs based on an early glaucoma subset were 0.88 (0.86,0.91), 0.75 (0.73,0.77), and 0.92 (0.89,0.95), respectively. Conclusion and relevance: Probabilistic deep learning models can detect glaucoma from multi-modal data with high accuracy. Our findings suggest that models based on combined visual field and fundus photograph modalities detects glaucoma with higher accuracy. While probabilistic and deterministic CNN models provided similar performance, probabilistic models generate certainty level of the outcome thus providing another level of confidence in decision making

A randomized controlled trial of a proportionate universal parenting program delivery model (E-SEE Steps) to enhance child social-emotional wellbeing

Background Evidence for parenting programs to improve wellbeing in children under three is inconclusive. We investigated the fidelity, impact, and cost-effectiveness of two parenting programs delivered within a longitudinal proportionate delivery model (‘E-SEE Steps’). Methods Eligible parents with a child ≤ 8 weeks were recruited into a parallel two-arm, assessor blinded, randomized controlled, community-based, trial with embedded economic and process evaluations. Post-baseline randomization applied a 5:1 (intervention-to-control) ratio, stratified by primary (child social-emotional wellbeing (ASQ:SE-2)) and key secondary (maternal depression (PHQ-9)) outcome scores, sex, and site. All intervention parents received the Incredible Years® Baby Book (IY-B), and were offered the targeted Infant (IY-I)/Toddler (IY-T) program if eligible, based on ASQ:SE-2/PHQ-9 scores. Control families received usual services. Fidelity data were analysed descriptively. Primary analysis applied intention to treat. Effectiveness analysis fitted a marginal model to outcome scores. Cost-effectiveness analysis involved Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs). Results The target sample (N = 606) was not achieved; 341 mothers were randomized (285:56), 322 (94%) were retained to study end. Of those eligible for the IY-I (n = 101), and IY-T (n = 101) programs, 51 and 21 respectively, attended. Eight (of 14) groups met the 80% self-reported fidelity criteria. No significant differences between arms were found for adjusted mean difference scores; ASQ:SE-2 (3.02, 95% CI: -0.03, 6.08, p = 0.052), PHQ-9 (-0.61; 95% CI: -1.34, 0.12, p = 0.1). E-SEE Steps had higher costs, but improved mothers’ Health-related Quality of Life (0.031 Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gain), ICER of £20,062 per QALY compared to control. Serious adverse events (n = 86) were unrelated to the intervention. Conclusions E-SEE Steps was not effective, but was borderline cost-effective. The model was delivered with varying fidelity, with lower-than-expected IY-T uptake. Changes to delivery systems and the individual programs may be needed prior to future evaluation. Trial registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN11079129

Production Networks in Asia: A Case Study from the Hard Disk Drive Industry

Production networks have been extensively developed in East Asia. Previous studies on production networks used international trade data or input-output tables, but such aggregate data cannot explain how the networks actually operate. With the aim of understanding the features and characteristics of East Asian production networks, this paper examines the procurement system of a HDD assembler operating in Thailand. This micro-level case study found that this particular production network consists mostly of arm's-length suppliers, who are independent and on an equal footing with the assembler. These arm's-length suppliers are mostly located in the assembling country, but some are located in neighboring countries. This proximity is necessary to establish good relationships between customer and suppliers and allows problems to be solved as soon as they occur. The arm's-length suppliers engaged in each country's leading industries, such as the electronics industry in Malaysia and Singapore and the automobile industry in Thailand, have extended their business to supply the HDD industry. These suppliers have formed an industrial cluster in each country within a two- or three-hour drive area. Each cluster that spans different countries is linked by a well-developed logistic network that employs the just-in-time production method that prevails in East Asia. On a regional level, these separate clusters tend to form international production networks that connect to each other across neighboring countries within a distance that provides a quick response time for problem solving. This study also found that American HDD assemblers outsourced indigenous suppliers in Malaysia and Singapore because American suppliers did not follow the assemblers' move to the region. However, since Japanese suppliers did follow the Japanese HDD assemblers to the Philippines and Thailand, indigenous suppliers were not outsourced

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention