Repeatability of locomotor performance and morphology-locomotor performance relationships

There is good evidence that natural selection drives the evolution of locomotor performance, but the processes that generate the among-individual variation for selection to act on are relatively poorly understood. We measured prolonged swimming performance, U-crit, and morphology in a large cohort (n=461) of wild-type zebrafish (Danio rerio) at similar to 6 months and again at similar to 9 months. Using mixed-model analyses to estimate repeatability as the intraclass correlation coefficient, we determined that U-crit was significantly repeatable (r=0.55; 95% CI: 0.45-0.64). Performance differences between the sexes (males 12% faster than females) and changes with age (decreasing 0.07% per day) both contributed to variation in U-crit and, therefore, the repeatability estimate. Accounting for mean differences between sexes within the model decreased the estimate of U-crit repeatability to 21% below the naive estimate, while fitting age in the models increased the estimate to 14% above the naive estimate. Greater consideration of factors such as age and sex is therefore necessary for the interpretation of performance repeatability in wild populations. Body shape significantly predicted U-crit in both sexes in both assays, with the morphology-performance relationship significantly repeatable at the population level. However, morphology was more strongly predicative of performance in older fish, suggesting a change in the contribution of morphology relative to other factors such as physiology and behaviour. The morphology-performance relationship changed with age to a greater extent in males than females

The phenome-wide distribution of genetic variance

A general observation emerging from estimates of additive genetic variance in sets of functionally or developmentally related traits is that much of the genetic variance is restricted to few trait combinations as a consequence of genetic covariance among traits. While this biased distribution of genetic variance among functionally related traits is now well documented, how it translates to the broader phenome and therefore any trait combination under selection in a given environment is unknown. We show that 8,750 gene expression traits measured in adult male Drosophila serrata exhibit widespread genetic covariance among random sets of five traits, implying that pleiotropy is common. Ultimately, to understand the phenome-wide distribution of genetic variance, very large additive genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) are required to be estimated. We draw upon recent advances in matrix theory for completing high-dimensional matrices to estimate the 8,750-trait G and show that large numbers of gene expression traits genetically covary as a consequence of a single genetic factor. Using gene ontology term enrichment analysis, we show that the major axis of genetic variance among expression traits successfully identified genetic covariance among genes involved in multiple modes of transcriptional regulation. Our approach provides a practical empirical framework for the genetic analysis of high-dimensional phenome-wide trait sets and for the investigation of the extent of high-dimensional genetic constraint

Uneven distribution of mutational variance across the transcriptome of Drosophila serrata revealed by high-dimensional analysis of gene expression

There are essentially an infinite number of traits that could be measured on any organism, and almost all individual traits display genetic variation, yet substantial genetic variance in a large number of independent traits is not plausible under basic models of selection and mutation. One mechanism that may be invoked to explain the observed levels of genetic variance in individual traits is that pleiotropy results in fewer dimensions of phenotypic space with substantial genetic variance. Multivariate genetic analyses of small sets of functionally-related traits have shown that standing genetic variance is often concentrated in relatively few dimensions. It is unknown if a similar concentration of genetic variance occurs at a phenome-wide scale when many traits of disparate function are considered, or if the genetic variance generated by new mutations is also unevenly distributed across phenotypic space. Here, we used a Bayesian sparse factor model to characterize the distribution of mutational variance of 3385 gene expression traits of after 27 generations of mutation accumulation, and found that 46% of the estimated mutational variance was concentrated in just 21 dimensions with significant mutational heritability. We show that the extent of concentration of mutational variance into such a small subspace has the potential to substantially bias the response to selection of these traits

Maintenance of quantitative genetic variance in complex, multitrait phenotypes:the contribution of rare, large effect variants in 2 Drosophila species

The interaction of evolutionary processes to determine quantitative genetic variation has implications for contemporary and future phenotypic evolution, as well as for our ability to detect causal genetic variants. While theoretical studies have provided robust predictions to discriminate among competing models, empirical assessment of these has been limited. In particular, theory highlights the importance of pleiotropy in resolving observations of selection and mutation, but empirical investigations have typically been limited to few traits. Here, we applied high-dimensional Bayesian Sparse Factor Genetic modeling to gene expression datasets in 2 species, Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila serrata, to explore the distributions of genetic variance across high-dimensional phenotypic space. Surprisingly, most of the heritable trait covariation was due to few lines (genotypes) with extreme [>3 interquartile ranges (IQR) from the median] values. Intriguingly, while genotypes extreme for a multivariate factor also tended to have a higher proportion of individual traits that were extreme, we also observed genotypes that were extreme for multivariate factors but not for any individual trait. We observed other consistent differences between heritable multivariate factors with outlier lines vs those factors without extreme values, including differences in gene functions. We use these observations to identify further data required to advance our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics and nature of standing genetic variation for quantitative traits

Larval traits show temporally consistent constraints, but are decoupled from post-settlement juvenile growth, in an intertidal fish

1.Complex life-cycles may evolve to dissociate distinct developmental phases in an organism's lifetime. However, genetic or environmental factors may restrict trait independence across life stages, constraining ontogenetic trajectories. Quantifying covariance across life-stages and their temporal variability is fundamental in understanding life-history phenotypes and potential distributions and consequences for selection. 2.We studied developmental constraints in an intertidal fish (Bathygobius cocosensis: Gobiidae) with a discrete pelagic larval phase and benthic juvenile phase. We tested whether traits occurring earlier in life affected those expressed later, and whether larval traits were decoupled from post-settlement juvenile traits. Sampling distinct cohorts from three annual breeding seasons afforded tests of temporally variability in trait covariance. 3.From otoliths (fish ear stones), we measured hatch size, larval duration, pelagic growth (larval traits) and early post-settlement growth (juvenile trait) in 124 juvenile B. cocoensis. We used path analyses to model trait relationships with respect to their chronological expression, comparing models among seasons. We also modelled the effect of season and hatch date on each individual trait to quantify their inherent variability. 4.Our path analyses demonstrated a decoupling of larval traits on juvenile growth. Within the larval phase, longer larval durations resulted in greater pelagic growth, and larger size-at-settlement. There was also evidence that larger hatch size might reduce larval durations, but this effect was only marginally significant. Although pelagic and post-settlement growth were decoupled, pelagic growth had post-settlement consequences: individuals with high pelagic growth were among the largest fish at settlement, and remained among the largest early post-settlement. We observed no evidence that trait relationships varied among breeding seasons, but larval duration differed among breeding seasons, and was shorter for larvae hatching later within each season. 5.Overall, we demonstrate mixed support for the expectation that traits in different life-stages are independent. While post-settlement growth was decoupled from larval traits, pelagic development had consequences for the size of newly settled juveniles. Temporal consistency in trait covariances implies that genetic and/or environmental factors influencing them were stable over our three-year study. Our work highlights the importance of individual developmental experiences and temporal variability in understanding population distributions of life-history traits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Data from: Joint allelic effects on fitness and metric traits

Theoretical explanations of empirically observed standing genetic variation, mutation, and selection suggest that many alleles must jointly affect fitness and metric traits. However, there are few direct demonstrations of the nature and extent of these pleiotropic associations. We implemented a mutation accumulation (MA) divergence experimental design in Drosophila serrata to segregate genetic variants for fitness and metric traits. By exploiting naturally occurring MA line extinctions as a measure of line-level total fitness, manipulating sexual selection, and measuring productivity we were able to demonstrate genetic covariance between fitness and standard metric traits, wing size and shape. Larger size was associated with lower total fitness and male sexual fitness, but higher productivity. Multivariate wing shape traits, capturing major axes of wing shape variation among MA lines, evolved only in the absence of sexual selection, and to the greatest extent in lines that went extinct, indicating that mutations contributing wing shape variation also typically had deleterious effects on both total fitness and male sexual fitness. This pleiotropic covariance of metric traits with fitness will drive their evolution, and generate the appearance of selection on the metric traits even in the absence of a direct contribution to fitness